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#1414435 - 23/03/2017 09:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Listeneing to senior forecaster this morning BOM are in little doubt it will reach Tc status and little doubt it will head west(ish). Fiji bound for sure now!

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#1414437 - 23/03/2017 09:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1495
Loc: Kingaroy
We need a cyclone down here to fill all of our dams up.

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#1414438 - 23/03/2017 09:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
It's really GFS vs all the other models now. GFS has a tropical depression and all the other models have a tropical cyclone.

I think it will affect the QLD Coast and it currently looks like a Cat 1
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#1414439 - 23/03/2017 09:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
A bit of climate context here.

POAMA rainfall anomaly Week 1&2
Lots of moisture for cyclones to play around with.

POAMA rainfall anomaly Week 3&4
Not a lot of moisture to play with.

This is likely the last chance for a large cyclone in the Coral Sea.
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#1414444 - 23/03/2017 10:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks Snowy. Are you and others thinking this will be a large event in terms of area affected or a tight localised twister type of event. Looking like it has a good supply of moisture to the NW which could be drawn in and appears to be showing very early signs of organisation on wz satellite loop. (in the eyes of novice)

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#1414451 - 23/03/2017 11:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 694
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
GFS 18Z run still just a TD but crossing right over Townsville and the following rainfall forecast grin

GFS 18Z 23-03-17

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#1414456 - 23/03/2017 12:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks Steamy - could you please explain the time cycle for the forecast in the above link. ie is that over 3,4 days, what does 18z mean. Either way they are impressive totals - very interested to see what happens post crossing in terms of rainfall. Thanks in advance.

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#1414457 - 23/03/2017 12:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 623
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
GFS is rubbish until a system consolidates over an LLCC. This will be a significant event, I hope all from Cairns to Bowen are well prepared.

I don't get excited at all until EC gets on board and EC consistently developing this system significantly. There is a strong consensus at the Bureau that this will be a significant impact for coastal communities.

Not that they would ever say that out loud. LOL


Edited by E-J (23/03/2017 12:23)
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#1414461 - 23/03/2017 12:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1177
Loc: Charters Towers
I am kind of hoping that if this does land it is south of the Cassowary Coast for a couple of reasons. Both selfish of course.

1. The region still has not recovered from both Larry and Yasi in economic terms.

2. I am half way through building a home in Mission Beach.

oh make it three reasons.

3. All my great WZ mates in Townsville need a good drink, especially the Dawgg, who has been a little touchy of late through absolute boredom. I can almost feel his excitement.

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#1414463 - 23/03/2017 12:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4399
18z is 1800 zulu time (6pm Greenwich Mean Time) which is 4am AEST. It means this model run was at 4am this morning AEST.
I don't know what the forecast time period for those rainfall accumulations in that chart is though since he didn't mention it.

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#1414464 - 23/03/2017 12:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1331
Loc: Whitsundays
Apart from us weather fans, another couple of groups who should be starting to get excited are the greenies who'll see the CS SSTs decline with a TC around so the coral bleaching should stop, and the other group will be the graziers out west as a good size TC crossing the coast should see good rainfall out western Qld.
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#1414466 - 23/03/2017 12:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Ok Thanks Ken. Looks to be widespread rain - hopefully concentrated more over the land than indicated on the chart shown.

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#1414467 - 23/03/2017 12:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 930
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Mundingb...
I'll certainly be keeping an eye out over the north of Fiji as well for about 10-12 or so days out - expecting something there by 2nd - 5th April.
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#1414468 - 23/03/2017 13:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
exodus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 584
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
FYI, was in @ bunnings this morning, Ozito 3300w Peak (3000w continuous) Inverter Generator for $389.

Townsville North shore had 4 (less 1)
Townsville Garbutt has 6

Assume Townsville fairfield has 2 - 4.

http://ozito.com.au/products/igp-3300/

box and manual states 3 years replacement warranty, even tho website and bottom of box says 1year.

Bargain price, a 3000w b&s is $1800.

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#1414471 - 23/03/2017 13:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 694
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Thanks Ken

Snapper

It uses GFS forecast over 192 hrs
and is updated 4 times a day

12z
18z
00z
06z

All GMT

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#1414479 - 23/03/2017 13:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
If the LOW off XMAS island in WA forms in the next 24hrs which is forecast to do it takes Caleb off the list. Next in line is TC DEBBIE. She sounds horrid. 'Debbie does QLD' I think i remember seeing a movie about that years ago. Watch out crew Debbie is on her way.
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#1414486 - 23/03/2017 14:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
No-Logic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Railway Estate, Townsville
Latest CMC has it building quite decent and drifting into the coast now.

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#1414500 - 23/03/2017 14:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: No-Logic]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2033
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: No-Logic
Latest CMC has it building quite decent and drifting into the coast now.


Could you supply a link please?

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#1414502 - 23/03/2017 14:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: bundybear]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 110
Originally Posted By: bundybear
Originally Posted By: No-Logic
Latest CMC has it building quite decent and drifting into the coast now.


Could you supply a link please?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...2&xpos=0&ypos=0
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#1414505 - 23/03/2017 14:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: E-J]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: E-J
GFS is rubbish until a system consolidates over an LLCC. This will be a significant event, I hope all from Cairns to Bowen are well prepared.

I don't get excited at all until EC gets on board and EC consistently developing this system significantly. There is a strong consensus at the Bureau that this will be a significant impact for coastal communities.

Not that they would ever say that out loud. LOL


They will have to at some point. Its no Yasi but its going to bring lots of rain and possibly a big storm tide.

Watch by tomorrow 5pm i reckon.
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