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#1414557 - 23/03/2017 17:32 Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
ropical Cyclone Caleb has formed over open waters well to the west of the WA mainland.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.6 degrees South, 100.5 degrees East , 400 kilometres east of Cocos Island and 610 kilometres west southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Caleb has formed in open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. Caleb is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction Thursday night and during Friday, away from the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is expected to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the WA mainland.
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#1414560 - 23/03/2017 17:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12542
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Please use existing thread:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...Ind#Post1414040

*edit* This is what happens when you've had a few beers on a hot day. wink


Edited by Raindammit (23/03/2017 17:48)
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#1414566 - 23/03/2017 17:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha it could also be that its been rare that we have 3 systems to follow all at the one time. All good. Classic though.
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#1414578 - 23/03/2017 18:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome



TC Caleb scored one for W.A .

Crept us on us that one

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#1414674 - 24/03/2017 00:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Details of Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.0 degrees South, 100.7 degrees East .
Movement: south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the WA mainland.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1414675 - 24/03/2017 00:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

There you go .. TC Caleb spinning around having the time of its life ....in the middle of nowhere..


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#1414785 - 24/03/2017 12:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Still tracking away nicely ...same ,same but different.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1414796 - 24/03/2017 12:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
He's have a good old time out there just wandering around.
Caleb doesn't look like he will get pass a CAT 1. Not for the next 72+ hrs anyway.

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#1414811 - 24/03/2017 13:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


Yes KBO he's just enjoying the freedom to do what he pleases and not get too involved in gaining intensity..
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#1414820 - 24/03/2017 14:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

Caleb will die soon. Number 4 for the season.
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#1414912 - 24/03/2017 17:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


Soon?? Still got a couple more days in it yet ....

It will be gone when it loses it intensity maybe from shear but until then all good.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1415084 - 25/03/2017 00:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.9 degrees South, 100.7 degrees East , 515 kilometres southeast of Cocos Island and 730 kilometres southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.
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#1415293 - 25/03/2017 13:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean 2017 [Re: sswanss]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
Go west they said to young Caleb, you have ocean to explore...
Caleb was never to be see again.
Historians believed that he perished some where the grate marine deserts of the west in 2017..

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#1415393 - 25/03/2017 17:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Still going KBO and still CAT1 for the next few days.

Actually moving slowly south east atm.

You seem keen KBO to kill off our TC but it defy you against all odds... poke
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1415653 - 25/03/2017 23:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome
Still going strong.
The longest surviving Cyclone this year.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South, 99.7 degrees East , 550 kilometres southeast of Cocos Island and 920 kilometres southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Caleb has been moving southwest, but is likely to start tracking west for the next few days. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the WA mainland
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1415825 - 26/03/2017 10:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

No going very quickly anyway atm but still pumping along never the less.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.5 degrees South, 99.6 degrees East , 570 kilometres south southeast of Cocos Island and 940 kilometres southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: slow moving .

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is likely to start tracking west over the next few days. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the WA mainland
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1415874 - 26/03/2017 12:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome
Latest tech info from BOM

The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system
to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking a bit more north, but
in this scenario the system is likely to be weak.

============
Dvorak analysis is problamatic with recent burst of convection near the centre.
MET is 3.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0, and FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 1740 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT was 3.0. Intensity set to 45
knots.

========

CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 20 knots.TPW shows drier air wrapping
around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal.
SSTs are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air
entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus,
Caleb is forecast maintain to 45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a
slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday with the environment becoming
unfavourable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, gales may persist in
southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1415880 - 26/03/2017 12:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


Maybe the dry air will be Calebs downfall in the next few days ,shear looking moderate but may have nowhere to hide.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1416148 - 26/03/2017 18:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


Details of Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.0 degrees South, 99.4 degrees East , 505 kilometres south southeast of Cocos Island and 920 kilometres southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: slow moving .

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is expected to track west over the next few days. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters during Tuesday next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the WA mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1416464 - 27/03/2017 01:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

TC Caleb still going strong and could show Debbie a thing or two... poke


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1416523 - 27/03/2017 08:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
He's done ok for himself 23rd to the 28th solid effort for the little fella, They just didn't give him the right recipe to grow....

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#1416880 - 27/03/2017 14:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

He's done very well considering what he had to play with and the fact he stayed as a Cat 1 for his whole existence..

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Caleb at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 97.7 degrees East , 390 kilometres south southeast of Cocos Island .
Movement: west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour .

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Caleb has weakened below cyclone intensity over open waters well to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Gales are continuing on the southern side of the system, however it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone. Ex-TC Caleb will track steadily westwards over the coming days, and should move west of 090E late on Wednesday or on Thursday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1417161 - 27/03/2017 18:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


Ex-Tropical Cyclone Caleb is now below tropical cyclone intensity.

The system was located using a combination of microwave imagery, ASCAT and
visible satellite imagery.

There is no longer any deep convection around the system, with the low level
centre exposed. An ASCAT pass from 1524UTC showed gales were confined to the
southwestern quadrant of the system. Model guidance is consistent with
maintaining this structure as the system tracks west, with gales remaining in
the southern semicircle and no likelihood of it reintensifying into a tropical
cyclone.

Dvorak analysis is difficult with no pattern match due to lack of any deep
convection. Trend was W, with MET/PAT at 1.5. FT is 1.5 with CI held at 2.0.

The system intensity is 35 knots, due to gales on the southwestern side which
are occurring as a result of the pressure gradient between the system and a high
pressure ridge to the south.

The system will track steadily westwards over the coming days. Gales may presist
to the south of the system during Tuesday and some of Wednesday. The system
should then pass west of 090E late Wednesday or during Thursday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1417165 - 27/03/2017 18:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

This the last track of TC Caleb who died off between 8pm last night and 8am this morning .There is no longer any deep convection around the system, with the low level
centre exposed.

He was a little fighter alright and will be sadly missed by all those who tracked him...

p.s Please no flowers cry smile

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1417711 - 27/03/2017 23:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Caleb Indian Ocean March 2017 [Re: sswanss]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
Hahaha desiboy. I will throw some flowers in the drink for him. He was the last hurrah for us this season I think.

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