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#1415243 - 25/03/2017 12:12 Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3027
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
Post all technical information in regards to TC Debbie.


Edited by FNQ (25/03/2017 12:13)

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#1415246 - 25/03/2017 12:15 Re: Technical - Tropical Low (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4592
Thanks FNQ smile

Good idea to keep any non-technical chit chat in the other thread obviously.

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#1415259 - 25/03/2017 12:37 Re: Technical - Tropical Low (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5182
Loc: Diamond Valley
Thanks Tom, yes, well us TC nerds are awaiting the updated technical bulletin which is just about due.

EDIT:

And right on cue:

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0135 UTC 25/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.4S
Longitude: 151.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 330 nm [610 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 25/0600: 17.6S 151.8E: 030 [060]: 040 [075]: 991
+12: 25/1200: 17.7S 151.7E: 045 [080]: 045 [085]: 987
+18: 25/1800: 17.9S 151.4E: 055 [105]: 055 [100]: 985
+24: 26/0000: 18.0S 151.1E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 979
+36: 26/1200: 18.4S 150.4E: 090 [165]: 070 [130]: 975
+48: 27/0000: 18.9S 149.5E: 110 [200]: 080 [150]: 962
+60: 27/1200: 19.2S 148.4E: 130 [235]: 090 [165]: 954
+72: 28/0000: 19.5S 146.8E: 145 [270]: 085 [155]: 950
+96: 29/0000: 20.4S 144.1E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1001
+120: 30/0000: 21.4S 144.4E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
The tropical low has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system is associated with an impressive, very large circulation, but until recently has shown little development near the centre. However, it continues to become slowly organised, particularly near the centre, where convection is finally becoming more sustained. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This
analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an MSLP observation of 991.8hPa at 18 UTC 24/3.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. In the last few hours, the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track has been evident, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west-southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto
the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems -- this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward speed amongst the guidance, which affects not only the
time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over SSTs of 29 to 30 degrees celcius. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favourable environment it is likely
that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

I need time to analyse this . . .

EDIT:

I wouldn't be surprised if this system 'bombs' and becomes a dreaded Cat 5 by landfall.


Edited by Inclement Weather (25/03/2017 12:46)
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#1415263 - 25/03/2017 12:52 Re: Technical - Tropical Low (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
It defnitely looks good to intensify to at least Category 3, probably Cat 4 if the track stops moving south. You also can't rule out Category 5 with this speed of intensification.



Upper Level Divergence and Lower Level Convergence is good.



Shear is relaxing more.

Mid Level Moisture is decreasing a little and will continue to do so with MJO fully weakened, might be what stops Debbie from reaching Category 5.



Edited by Snowy Hibbo (25/03/2017 12:52)
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#1415394 - 25/03/2017 17:05 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5182
Loc: Diamond Valley
Latest shear profile indicates a decreasing trend around Debbie.

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#1415460 - 25/03/2017 18:39 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5182
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest tech bulletin is instructive as to Debbie's possible path and likely intensity beyond the published forecast, which I have highlighted.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 25/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 151.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 25/1200: 17.8S 151.7E: 035 [065]: 045 [085]: 991
+12: 25/1800: 18.2S 151.4E: 040 [075]: 055 [100]: 983
+18: 26/0000: 18.4S 151.2E: 045 [085]: 060 [110]: 979
+24: 26/0600: 18.5S 150.9E: 050 [095]: 065 [120]: 974
+36: 26/1800: 18.8S 150.2E: 075 [140]: 075 [140]: 966
+48: 27/0600: 19.2S 149.4E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 957
+60: 27/1800: 19.3S 148.3E: 095 [180]: 095 [175]: 949
+72: 28/0600: 19.7S 146.8E: 110 [205]: 055 [100]: 984
+96: 29/0600: 21.0S 144.3E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1000
+120: 30/0600: 21.6S 145.5E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Debbie has a very large and impressive circulation featuring spiral banding over much of the Coral Sea, but until recently has shown little development near the centre. However, it continues to become slowly organised, and convection has become a little more persistent near the centre over the past few hours. This slow central development is fairly typical of very large tropical lows. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern
with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an MSLP observation of 988.7hPa at 0230 UTC 25/3.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. The system has been fairly slow moving in the past few hours, however there are signs that the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track is occurring, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the
dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west-southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems -- this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward
speed amongst the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over SSTs of 29 to 30 degrees celcius. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favourable environment it is likely
that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#1415465 - 25/03/2017 18:42 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
camtsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 270
Loc: Townsville/ Gulliver
interestingly though...EC, Acces R Access G GFS are all trending to a more north crossing

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#1415486 - 25/03/2017 19:20 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Where you getting that data from camtsv
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Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1415489 - 25/03/2017 19:27 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3568
I disagree, GFS has it further south than EC, its going to be a battle to see who'll be right

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#1415491 - 25/03/2017 19:28 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Tempest]
camtsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 270
Loc: Townsville/ Gulliver
Originally Posted By: Tempest
I disagree, GFS has it further south than EC, its going to be a battle to see who'll be right


yes but previous gfs had it even further south

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#1415493 - 25/03/2017 19:32 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4592
As far as modelling itself goes, the best approach is often the middle of the ground/consensus approach (with perhaps a bit of a bias towards the more reliable models) - on average, it's been shown to outperform any single model on its own.

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#1415494 - 25/03/2017 19:35 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
rolive Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/11/2013
Posts: 21
Euro as shifted slightly north with direct hit on townsville now. GFS has also shifted more north

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#1415495 - 25/03/2017 19:35 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3568
I'm very happy for you guys to have it camtsv, we'll take the rain, but GFS hasn't changed much in the last few runs,


Edited by Tempest (25/03/2017 19:36)

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#1415500 - 25/03/2017 19:48 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Sunny Showers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2010
Posts: 260
Loc: Townsville.
Lets keep this a TECHNICAL INFO THREAD. Idle chat can be had in the TC Debbie Forum.

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#1415523 - 25/03/2017 20:31 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

EC Relative Humidity 850-400mb chart. Shows Mid Level Moisture. Probably better to visualise it using a PWAT 700-400mb chart, but this is all I can find from EC.


EC 300mb Divergence chart. Core looks good until landfall.


EC 200mb Divergence chart. Core looks great in this one and you can see the cyclone and it's outskirts.
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#1415525 - 25/03/2017 20:32 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4592
1st graphic - latest eye probability forecast based on the 06z analysis.

2nd graphic - the percentage of GFDL ensemble members going for rapid intensification (red) or rapid weakening (blue) over time.

3rd graphic - forecast radar reflectivities from the latest run of HWRF.

By the way, the latest CIMSS upper level wind analysis shows an amazingly good radial outflow pattern from the top of Debbie atm








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#1415581 - 25/03/2017 21:24 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2905
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
Is landfall going to be the rapid weakening stage?

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#1415660 - 25/03/2017 23:50 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Sunny Showers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2010
Posts: 260
Loc: Townsville.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:44 pm EST on Saturday 25 March 2017
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Debbie has intensified to a category 2 cyclone.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 151.9 degrees East, estimated to be 560 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 520 kilometres east northeast of Ayr.

Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently intensifying, and is now a category 2 cyclone. The system remains slow moving at the present time. It is expected to adopt a steady west-southwest track later tonight, which will continue for the next few days. Conditions will remain favourable for the cyclone to develop further before landfall, which will likely be between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:
GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay on Sunday afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence on Sunday night. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Lucinda and Mackay on Monday afternoon or evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:
Recommended Action:

- People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- People in coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr, and inland areas north and east of Charters Towers and Mount Coolon, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service

(SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen

trees on buildings or roof damage)

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AEST Sunday 26 March.

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#1415679 - 26/03/2017 00:13 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
7pm update from JTWC:

WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.1S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.9S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.2S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.9S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.8S 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.0S 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 152.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
250558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ON
THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.0 (45 TO 55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC DEBBIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A NER TO THE EAST AND A STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE NER WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD AND
MIGRATE WESTWARD, CAUSING TC DEBBIE TO CHANGE COURSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SSTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE ON
THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN



https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/

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#1415840 - 26/03/2017 10:59 Re: Technical - TC Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: FNQ]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7103
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
For anyone interested smile , the signs of Debbie's eye development can be seen on the meteograms (timeline graphs) with a 500-1000 mb thickness anomaly (two "bumps"). On the corresponding pressure timeline, there will be a "spike" in pressure as the sinking air (within the developing/developed eye) moves from the tropopause to the surface.

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