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#1416177 - 26/03/2017 19:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1071
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
My memory of Catharine wheels is of them getting stuck, not spinning, and exploding. But I do like the analogy Popeye


Edited by Weary (26/03/2017 19:22)
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Love petrichor

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#1416179 - 26/03/2017 19:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Chookie]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 938
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
Originally Posted By: Chookie
so what is the likely movement of her if she is stationary do they normally go west, south or a north?


I honestly think I can see more movement now than I've been able to see so far and it looks more westerly than anything so far. Am I imagining it?
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Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1416182 - 26/03/2017 19:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
camtsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 270
Loc: Townsville/ Gulliver
Originally Posted By: TSVWeatherNerd
Originally Posted By: Chookie
so what is the likely movement of her if she is stationary do they normally go west, south or a north?


I honestly think I can see more movement now than I've been able to see so far and it looks more westerly than anything so far. Am I imagining it?


maybe a wobble??

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#1416183 - 26/03/2017 19:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
phreeky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Townsville
Townsville schools closed

http://closures.det.qld.gov.au/

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#1416184 - 26/03/2017 19:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3027
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
To all my friends in the affected area- we will be with you soon. My SES Unit in Cairns has got ready for deployment. So many of us from up here will be down to help you in the after events. Stay safe.

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#1416186 - 26/03/2017 19:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
RAINALI Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 78
Loc: Hermit Park, Townsville, QLD
Can anyone advise on the wind direction in Townsville as Debbie crosses? Will it come in from the SE?

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#1416187 - 26/03/2017 19:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: RAINALI]
camtsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 270
Loc: Townsville/ Gulliver
Originally Posted By: RAINALI
Can anyone advise on the wind direction in Townsville as Debbie crosses? Will it come in from the SE?


more from west if she is south of us


Edited by camtsv (26/03/2017 19:35)

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#1416188 - 26/03/2017 19:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think Debbie has done an amazing job intensifying into a beautiful system to date, maybe beyond expectations. Models never really had her developing outrageously until now. I wonder if riding the ridge West is the trigger for rapid intensification starting from now on.

The question is though - How strong is this ridge? Is it a hefty one that will send it more West to West South West or is a weaker than expected one and will allow that little more Southerly tendency to creep in.

I wonder whether the big evac procedures around the Whitsundays is an indicator of a weaker ridge or one that gets eroded into and a more southern path.

Who knows?? The next 12 hours once it gets established on that ridge west will be interesting to watch. Maybe some prominent changes to track maps could be a chance either way north or South by the morning. Or none at all.
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#1416190 - 26/03/2017 19:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Tailwind Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 45
Loc: Mackay
Hmm Proserpine and Mackay look like coping a flogging of wind and rain with a possible cross north of Bowen.

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#1416191 - 26/03/2017 19:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: chestr]
PASSING WIND Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 3
If you speed it right up it looks to be going south west.
Originally Posted By: chestr
Originally Posted By: mad mick
Debbie must have forgot to untie the bow line to Lihou Reef looks stationary. Where to now.


Can see it is not stationary when you slide this back and forth

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR241-bowen/2017-03-25-08/2017-03-26-08

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#1416192 - 26/03/2017 19:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Tailwind]
Island viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740
But... so far Mackay is getting the rain and it is sporadic and showers not rain. The leading edge really does not seem to have a lot of water in it. The high tide with storm surge will be the highest threat along the coast I feel. She's taking her time to get to Cat 3.... Is the water a critical factor to determine strength?
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Eimeo Point, Mackay, Qld

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#1416197 - 26/03/2017 19:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Some of the most critical factors include shear (how much the winds change speed/direction with height - if shear is too strong, this inhibits TC's), upper ocean heat content (very warm waters not only at the surface but also in the upper layer can cause rapid intensification), and moisture (excessively dry air aloft inhibits TC's).

There's also other factors such as outflow channels, instability, etc.


Edited by Ken Kato (26/03/2017 19:44)
Edit Reason: fixed typos

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#1416198 - 26/03/2017 19:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
No-Logic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Railway Estate, Townsville
Honestly a majority of the models except BOM ACCESS show it around the Bowen Whitsundays area on Crossing? Thoughts?

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#1416200 - 26/03/2017 19:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: No-Logic]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: No-Logic
Honestly a majority of the models except BOM ACCESS show it around the Bowen Whitsundays area on Crossing? Thoughts?


I haven't seen a model showing that as yet.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1416202 - 26/03/2017 19:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Island viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740

This Debbie is mezmerizing no doubt

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=148.60,-18.82,2274
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Eimeo Point, Mackay, Qld

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#1416203 - 26/03/2017 19:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Island viewer]
Tailwind Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 45
Loc: Mackay
Originally Posted By: Island viewer
But... so far Mackay is getting the rain and it is sporadic and showers not rain. The leading edge really does not seem to have a lot of water in it. The high tide with storm surge will be the highest threat along the coast I feel. She's taking her time to get to Cat 3.... Is the water a critical factor to determine strength?


I was thinking more of tomorrow and Tuesday when we might cop it.

Hopefully not, but I am expecting power to go out late Monday or early Tuesday morning.

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#1416206 - 26/03/2017 19:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mr kinka beachee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2015
Posts: 62
Looks like it is taking abit north west can anyone see or I might be seeing things

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#1416207 - 26/03/2017 19:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mr kinka beachee]
Leebie3 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Mt Sheridan, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mr Cooee bay
Looks like it is taking abit north west can anyone see or I might be seeing things


if she tracks NW my gut feeling of her hitting somewhere beginning with 'I' could be realised but I'm thinking not...

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#1416208 - 26/03/2017 19:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: rainthisway]
No-Logic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Railway Estate, Townsville
Check the latest GFS

This

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#1416209 - 26/03/2017 20:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: No-Logic]
camtsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 270
Loc: Townsville/ Gulliver
Originally Posted By: No-Logic
Check the latest GFS

This


looks slow moving atm...


Edited by camtsv (26/03/2017 20:02)

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