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#1417379 - 27/03/2017 20:47 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2800
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Worst comment I heard for a long time is on CH9 for the Cowboys' Townsville game possible transfered to Suncorp for friday night on the assumption its 'available'. Ha, stay in Townsville JT!


Not a fan I take it?? Up the MIGHTY NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS 😜
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#1417399 - 27/03/2017 20:57 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4507
You can see the cold front surging up and interacting with the remains of ex-TC Debbie to become a wave low which develops a frontal wave structure with enhanced rainfall in this latest suggestion from EC for Friday:




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#1417422 - 27/03/2017 21:06 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: james1977]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cows my favourite teams since dot!
Recon Townsville gona dry out for friday night game.

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#1417426 - 27/03/2017 21:07 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks Ken, the perfect rainmaking machine!

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#1417442 - 27/03/2017 21:16 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Ouch.
That looks incredible Ken.
At least the dams will fill...
I can't keep up with the Debbie thread... Am Hiding in the SEQ...funny how quiet it is here given what's on the above map...

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#1417462 - 27/03/2017 21:27 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ha, give it a day or so, when the crap gona hit the fan & Ch9 gonabe all over it.

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#1417466 - 27/03/2017 21:28 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
Something had to crack with all of the heat around.

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#1417479 - 27/03/2017 21:34 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 389
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
As the track is now with the main low centre to track near Fraser Island should see some intense rain as it goes through for a period of 3-6 hours during Friday. Like rain rates getting up to 50-80mm/h near the low centre. Similar to Ex-Marcia Also depends how much pre-rain we can get being on the SE side of the low with moisture increasing from the NE. Hopefully I could get 200mm in one hit to fill up my dams.


With these types of events (low pressure systems heading south) there are two rain events. The first is the monsoon trough being pushed down, the second is the rain associated with the low itself.


Would it be a surface trough like feature, similar to the trough that was ahead Marcia? The monsoon trough would be more north of the depression?
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#1417524 - 27/03/2017 21:55 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 76
Loc: The Gap
Bit of a downgrade from gfs in the latest run in terms of rainfall. Still fascinating to watch all this now happen in real time.

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#1417533 - 27/03/2017 22:00 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Stevo]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1779
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Yeah tonight's GFS is a joke. Anything could happen at this point, but 2/3 models are downgrading the falls.

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#1417561 - 27/03/2017 22:10 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Haha latest GFS has 25mm accumulated for us... Looks to be taken by nsw...

EC on the other hand...

I'd be happy for somewhere in between...

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#1417610 - 27/03/2017 22:30 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 434
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Yeah I'd be very happy for the trend of GFS toward a deep trough forming out on the downs to not come off. Cyclone remnant to our SW. That's looking a bit too Oswald-ish for my liking. Never want to ever see a flood like that again in this valley.

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#1417615 - 27/03/2017 22:32 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
CraigA74 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
I'd definitely take in between.....25mm ain't quite enough and well EC is 😨😨

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#1417628 - 27/03/2017 22:42 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
magic74 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2013
Posts: 12
Hi guys.
So ive just seen the latest track forecast and notice that a tropical low from extc debbie could move back offshore north of gympie.
What are the chances that it could reform back over the warm seas and swing back to brisbane or northern nsw?

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#1417634 - 27/03/2017 22:46 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
I'm no expert but it looks like it might form a bit of a low, but not recurve back in.

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#1417637 - 27/03/2017 22:49 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4507
The remains of ex-TC Debbie should eventually go offshore but exactly where remains to be seen. The majority of models have it exiting somewhere off SE QLD or NE NSW at the moment.

I doubt it'd curve back in at this stage though due to the system getting caught up in the midlatitude westerlies.

Here's what some of the models are currently suggesting for whatever's left of ex-TC Debbie:



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#1417694 - 27/03/2017 23:16 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 434
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Ta Ken, Awesome map/info. Can I ask, are the 4 colourful pathways through the Darling Downs outliers or are they from models that are generally considered reliable, that have a good reputation? As I say above, that is my least preferred option because of the possibility of tremendous flooding here. Very loaded upper catchments here in the Warrill and Teviot Valleys at the moment. A spit would make a flood, let alone a deluge.

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#1417718 - 27/03/2017 23:28 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1010
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
70-100mm would fill a lot of dams out this way but I'm not even holding my breath for 10mm lol. What will be, will be. Enjoying watching and reading all the informative posts on it though. Hope people follow advice and stay safe!
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Jimbour rain: 2017-354, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug 2.5

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1417749 - 27/03/2017 23:44 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
magic74 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2013
Posts: 12
Yeah thanks heaps ken.
I guess the kids cross county is off on friday now by the looks of it 😉

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#1417999 - 28/03/2017 07:35 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2800
Loc: collingwood park
Watl is still keen on chunky falls..
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