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#1416223 - 26/03/2017 20:24 Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
There is general agreement among the models that STC Debbie's remnants will curve SE along the trough with the approaching ridge and towards our broad area of interest.

The EC based YR.no website has 96mm for Mooloolah this Friday with the passage of the trough/low. As Ken has posted in the day to day - a good probability of >25mm over the next week, which is always a good indication.

beyond 1 week out is too divergent, however there is potential for this event to be extended beyond the passing of the trough.

Given the recent event many (not all) of our catchments are primed there is the potential for runoff..

That's my summary, looking forward to the insight, speculation and observation.

Below is Extended GFS, which is probably the same as a picture of a unicorn for likelihood, but interesting nonetheless.

Tim





Edited by Seabreeze (31/03/2017 15:16)
Edit Reason: added major to title

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#1416229 - 26/03/2017 20:26 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Steven78 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2005
Posts: 314
Loc: Heathwood Brisbane South
I personal think this system will reduce in size like Monica.

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#1416243 - 26/03/2017 20:33 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
petethemoskeet Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1250
Loc: toowoomba
Why do you think that will happen?

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#1416245 - 26/03/2017 20:41 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4507
I posted this in the day to day thread but I'll post it in here as well since it's directly relevant to this thread - percentages of all the scenarios from a few of the ensembles currently dropping more than 25mm of rain within the next 7 days:



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#1416247 - 26/03/2017 20:43 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Thanks Ken.

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#1416283 - 26/03/2017 21:09 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
HPSupercellQLD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/02/2017
Posts: 17
Loc: Mt. Tamborine, QLD
The Rainfall Total's keep getting better. It sure feels like the calm before the storm. Interesting week ahead for many. grin
_________________________
Mt. Tamborine (NE Side)
2017 - 873mm / 19 "Rain days" YTD.
2016 - 887mm / 73 "Rain days"

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#1416326 - 26/03/2017 22:00 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
06Z GFS still forecasting big totals for SE QLD by the passage of ex-Debbie.

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#1416347 - 26/03/2017 22:27 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 153
Loc: Golden Beach
Graph below from Seabreeze has low passing over sunny coast next Friday night. Still holding form and 25-30knot winds. Not sure what model Seabreeze extrapolates from.


https://www.seabreeze.com.au/weather/wind-forecast/qld-sunshine-coast

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#1416492 - 27/03/2017 06:48 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
That's an upgrade

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#1416507 - 27/03/2017 07:48 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5175
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, the downgrading by EC of the intensity of Debbie does not bode well for us down here with its remnants being dragged right over us with up to 200mm forecast with obvious flash flooding implications. There is even a hint of a briefly lived surface low off the coast giving the beaches a sandblasting.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#1416533 - 27/03/2017 08:40 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 119
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Cancelled the pool dig and waved goodbye to the excavator yesterday. Just too much heavy rainfall forecast here over the next 3 days to risk the sides collapsing (~200mm). We managed to get a few big hollow termite trees down though so it already looks like I've been through a cyclone...lol. I'll feel a bit safer now if the winds do pick up when ex Debbie passes.


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#1416534 - 27/03/2017 08:46 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Some real rain on the way at last.

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#1416548 - 27/03/2017 09:17 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
This whole setup is looking very ominous.
Some in low areas might be looking very worried.
At least it should give good Dam inflows.

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#1416591 - 27/03/2017 10:25 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
We had to pay for it sooner or later, it's been hot and dry for so long.

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#1416606 - 27/03/2017 10:40 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1529
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Good time for GFS updates on BSCH to not be updating, not! Annoying.
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1416646 - 27/03/2017 11:24 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1026
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
200+mm for brissy area hmmmmmm
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1416681 - 27/03/2017 11:54 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4507
Pretty good forecast track consensus among some of the models now for the remains of ex-TC Debbie curving down to the SE (1st image)... won't be a TC for the whole length of those tracks though obviously.

2nd image is the latest rainfall output from three of the ensembles for within the next 7 days:








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#1416732 - 27/03/2017 12:27 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
fraccinstein Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2013
Posts: 122
Loc: Burrum Heads
Hi Ken
those tracks are central to the Burnett catchment, is it likely that she will produce >200mm average? , that would see Paradise dam possibly go over , as it is 3m below the spillway.

When Oswald came in the catchment was saturated and the 400mm saw 8m go over the wall and innundate Bundy, so anything above 8m is a serious worry.

Sunwater would be a little nervous if big falls happen , as they have applied to spend $400M trying to stablilise it.

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#1416776 - 27/03/2017 13:06 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Dont know about anyone else but Debbie keeping a more slow southerly track might give the trough enough time to catch it & send it barreling thus way. Not good I think.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (27/03/2017 13:07)

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#1416866 - 27/03/2017 14:25 Re: Ex STC Debbie - Heavy Rain, major flooding and damaging winds - 29th March to April 1st 2017 [Re: Blowin']
WeatherNut96 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2015
Posts: 55
Loc: Cleveland, Brisbane
be interested on how this pans out, i'm meant to be going to Hervey Bay this weekend.

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