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#1416778 - 27/03/2017 13:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2915
Loc: Mt Warren Park
eye wall replacement happening? maybe? seems a bit enlongated or is it just my eyes?
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#1416779 - 27/03/2017 13:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
phreeky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: TSVWeatherNerd
There is that possibility and I know that some people have already said it from the beginning.


Opinions are all over the place, somebody is bound to be right but that doesn't really prove anything at all.

The only thing that is telling is whether a certain model is consistently more accurate than others, or more accurate for certain types of systems, or consistently has landfall estimated either correctly or offset by a similar margain.

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#1416780 - 27/03/2017 13:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Watching here from the lounge room in SA, hope she doesn't cause to much trouble up there,

Thought I'd add my 2 cents worth, "Debbie does Dallas"

D - Destructive
A - Aggressive
L - Lots of wind
L - Lots of rain
A - Arrogant
S - Storm Surge

OBVIOUS WESTERLY MOVEMENT NOW IN THE LAST COUPLE OF FRAMES


Edited by Jet entrance (27/03/2017 13:11)
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"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1416781 - 27/03/2017 13:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12981
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance


OBVIOUS WESTERLY MOVEMENT NOW IN THE LAST COUPLE OF FRAMES


Maybe a very slight curve toward the SW.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.m&r=241&noi=100
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1416782 - 27/03/2017 13:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2915
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Watching here from the lounge room in SA, hope she doesn't cause to much trouble up there,

Thought I'd add my 2 cents worth, "Debbie does Dallas"

D - Destructive
A - Aggressive
L - Lots of wind
L - Lots of rain
A - Arrogant
S - Storm Surge

OBVIOUS WESTERLY MOVEMENT NOW IN THE LAST COUPLE OF FRAMES


she's moving so slowly it's really hard to tell which direction she is going in - it was SSW at 11am ...
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** sunshine and lollipops and rainbows every where **

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#1416784 - 27/03/2017 13:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Chookie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 1945
Loc: Kirwan
It is going to go directly west hahahahahah
That's what someone just said on a Facebook post

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#1416786 - 27/03/2017 13:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12981
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yeah no...
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1416787 - 27/03/2017 13:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...


Looks very much like pretty much like what every model was saying except EC.


Edited by TSVWeatherNerd (27/03/2017 13:17)
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Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1416788 - 27/03/2017 13:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4466
Loc: Brisbane
Trying to judge the direction a cyclone is moving from a few radar frames is nonsensical.

You need at least a 3-6 hour loop to start to draw any conclusions and even that might not be enough to isolate a wobble from a real direction change.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1416789 - 27/03/2017 13:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Locke]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12981
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: Locke
Trying to judge the direction a cyclone is moving from a few radar frames is nonsensical.

You need at least a 3-6 hour loop to start to draw any conclusions and even that might not be enough to isolate a wobble from a real direction change.


Try the last 100 frames then:

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.m&r=241&noi=100
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1416790 - 27/03/2017 13:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
Recent movement SSE.
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Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1416791 - 27/03/2017 13:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Locke]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2315
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke
Trying to judge the direction a cyclone is moving from a few radar frames is nonsensical.



Nah it is going north east now grin grin

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#1416792 - 27/03/2017 13:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
chestr Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2007
Posts: 117
Loc: Vincent, Townsville
This site very similair to oscilmet is also good.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR241-bowen/

Direction is clear. Nobody can say that is going west. clearly ssw for the last half a day.

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#1416793 - 27/03/2017 13:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0119 UTC 27/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 150.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [199 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/T4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/0600: 19.5S 150.1E: 025 [050]: 070 [130]: 970
+12: 27/1200: 19.6S 149.6E: 040 [070]: 080 [150]: 961
+18: 27/1800: 19.9S 148.9E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 28/0000: 20.2S 148.2E: 065 [120]: 080 [150]: 963
+36: 28/1200: 20.6S 146.7E: 085 [155]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 29/0000: 21.3S 145.4E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 29/1200: 22.1S 145.2E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 30/0000: 23.4S 146.7E: 140 [265]: 030 [050]: 1001
+96: 31/0000: 25.1S 151.7E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 01/0000: 27.6S 155.8E: 275 [505]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Debbie showed little signs of development through the previous
24 hours to sunrise this morning. However in the past few hours, the long
expected rapid development appears to be taking place. Deep convection has
rapidly dveloped around the system centre, with possibly a ragged eye feature
appearing. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on an eye pattern in
IR, with a DG surround and OW eye, subtracting 0.5 for ragged eye yielded a DT
of 4.0. MET and is 5.0 and PT is 4.5. FT was based on PT as the DT was not
completely clear. SATCON has jumped dramatically over the past 6 hours from 62
knots to 90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.0 System will be upgraded
to a severe category 3.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of
radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite
imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary
steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave
trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the
models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly
more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may
also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it
remains somewhat disorganised. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a
general west-southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the
Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track,
although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain
favourable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected
in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate, reinforced by the recent
fairly rapid development. This is above most objective guidance at this time.
The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before
landfall in the favourable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is
a possibility.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

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#1416795 - 27/03/2017 13:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mr kinka beachee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2015
Posts: 62
Could yeppoon be in the firing line guys

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#1416796 - 27/03/2017 13:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
former_qlder Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2015
Posts: 25
Wouldn't those people from the Cape Cleveland/Cungulla area be annoyed after the forceful evacuations last night. The latest tracking map suggests that area might get a few heavy showers, at best. I understand authorities were doing it for public safety, but in my opinion, forced evacuations should not occur until such time there is 100% certainty of the impact zone.


Edited by former_qlder (27/03/2017 13:25)

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#1416798 - 27/03/2017 13:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: former_qlder]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12981
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: former_qlder
Wouldn't those people from the Cape Cleveland/Cungulla area be annoyed after the forceful evacuations last night. The latest tracking map suggests that area get a few heavy showers, at best. I understand authorities were doing it for public safety, but in my opinion, forced evacuations should not occur until such time there is 100% certainty of the impact zone.


Better to be safe than sorry. The authorities were acting on the information available at the time.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1416799 - 27/03/2017 13:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: meedee]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: meedee
Originally Posted By: Moldy
Originally Posted By: meedee
Dont know that it is a rumour....I found this article

http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/nation...6974b38441ae641


The northerlies we are expecting after it crosses ie NE quadrant,(Tues afternoon based on a Tues morn crossing) apparently will be quite strong but that was based on an Ayr crossing.



I was meaning this part of the article regarding the Power beign switched off

"Ms Palaszczuk said the evacuation area had been expanded to Bowen.

“This window of opportunity to leave is drastically closing,” she said.

Ms Palaszczuk said the power would be switched off later today.

“Now is the time to charge your phone,” she said.

Ms Palaszczuk said residents should also have a battery operated radio to listen to updates.

Ms Palaszczuk said the winds in the Townsville area will be worse than Cyclone Yasi.

“These winds are going to be severe and we are going to see structural damage,” she said.

All commercial flights in and out of Townsville Airport have been cancelled ahead of Tropical Cyclone Debbie.

All flights have been cancelled from 11.30am today, with the last departing flight being QF 2312 to Cairns. "



Can someone please explain why the winds be so severe in Townsville when it's on the northern side of the cyclone, I'm quoting the Premiers words in this mornings disaster management conference " Ms Palaszczuk said the winds in the Townsville area will be worse than Cyclone Yasi"

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#1416800 - 27/03/2017 13:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: whethertraveller]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12981
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller



Can someone please explain why the winds be so severe in Townsville when it's on the northern side of the cyclone, I'm quoting the Premiers words in this mornings disaster management conference " Ms Palaszczuk said the winds in the Townsville area will be worse than Cyclone Yasi"


She was giving an opinion on the available information at the time.

No, the winds in Townsville will not be worse than Yasi and probably won't even reach gale force.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1416801 - 27/03/2017 13:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Brisbane time headline - 'Worse than Yasi'. And that the cyclone has claimed its first life.

Talk about clutching for a headline. As devistating as it is, the cyclone did not directly kill the person in the car. And I think the Brisbane time need to do a little homework on cyclone categories - Yasi was 5. Debbie not yet a 4.
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