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#1415191 - 25/03/2017 10:53 Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017.
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Two nice wet S/W fronts coming across Vic in the next week to add, with some luck, good additional rains to that rec'd recently.

The first entering W. Vic on Monday morning and clearing E. Vic by Tuesday midday.

The second entering W. Vic Thursday morning and clearing E. Vic by midday Friday, looking wetter than the prev. front.

Models are still evolving with ACCESS looking very favourable this morning for both fronts.

Cold air associated with Thursdays front could bring a fairly chilly blast to Vic, particularly W. Vic before it weakens. eg - Hamiltons Max Thur&Fri is 18C & Portlands 17C......lovely, hope it gets here grin

10MM, or even better, in the coming week would be icing on the cake for many areas, lets see what happens - (if we can drag the eyes off T'ville over the same time !!!!)


Edited by samboz (25/03/2017 10:56)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1415302 - 25/03/2017 13:58 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Hint of snow Thursday, could be cold enough !

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/victoria/126/snow
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1415480 - 25/03/2017 19:03 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah looks promising! Glad to finally have some more wintry blasts come through to make things exciting. Here's the prognosis for the final week of March 2017... smile

Currently we have a low pressure trough dipping into our neck of the woods from the west/northwest, as well as the monsoon still in progress across tropical Northern Australia. And of course Cyclone Debbie intensifying over the Coral Sea, heading towards Queensland! frown

Also on satellite, just off the Southwest WA coast, a deepening low pressure system and intense cold front have been set free from Antarctica. Expect this winter storm to enter the Bight from the Southern Ocean tomorrow and then interact with the preceding trough. Winds ahead of the storm swing around into a hot northerly airflow across Victoria late-tomorrow, likely strengthening to gale-force, sending temperatures soaring well into the 30s on Monday before the change strikes (32C for Melbourne, 34C for Mildura), and raising the risk of fire. Sunny at first, then cloud increasing with showers and potentially severe thunderstorms likely with the change.

Warmth makes a brief return ahead of a more significant polar blast scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. No mention of snow in the official forecasts... yet, but that could change! ACCESS hints at the possibility of a brief ECL spinning up on Thursday btw! smile

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#1415784 - 26/03/2017 09:06 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Happening all over asf, good summary, tomorrow for here the max f'cast is 35C(ridiculous - hate it) and -

"Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm Chance of any rain: 90%"

Thursday is looking patchier on ACCESS with heavier falls in the south and far east of Vic.

Expect changes as we get closer......
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Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1415808 - 26/03/2017 09:46 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 17.6C, at the last check it was around 19C and mostly cloudy in Belgrave. On my down to Dandenong, and the Sun is coming out. smile

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#1416093 - 26/03/2017 17:40 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, somewhat humid, mostly sunny 30.6C here in Belgrave. Took a while for the morning low cloud to completely burn off, but boy the Sun had a kick! poke

Currently around 27C, with a slight cooling breeze. smile

Forgot to mention that we had no measurable rainfall last night or this morning.

Loving the satellite imagery atm, looks like Cyclone Debbie's competing with the impending cold front for my attention lol. The winter storm is now entering the Bight, and the northerly airflow should strengthen tomorrow ahead of the change; no SWW out for Victoria yet but could be damaging gales tomorrow. 32C for Melbourne, 34C for Mildura, and 35C for the Sale/Bairnsdale region. Still likely to see storms erupting with the front's passage tomorrow, hopefully with heavy rain. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (26/03/2017 17:41)

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#1416136 - 26/03/2017 18:19 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6661
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thunderstorms with the change tomorrow for S Central and (especially) Gippsland onwards??

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#1416194 - 26/03/2017 19:39 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1029
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah spot on p! Gun be hot and windy
For say the first 2/3 of tommoz,then
Potentially a nice storm/line of rain rolling
Through tommoz arvo,with hopefully a nice
Drop of rain!
I'm not sure, but this should/hopefully be the
Last of any half chance of fires around here until
Later this year😀

Access g looking rather chilly on Thursday
With a fair chance of snow for southern range(Baw Baw)
And maybe some more welcome train

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#1416276 - 26/03/2017 21:04 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Ventusky has some quite intense land gales and wind shear associated with tomorrow's front! CAPE values aren't that great, but based on lifted index readings it could be one stormy frontal system! Not neccessarily supercellular though, but wouldn't be surprised if we get a fast-moving squall line!

Every time we get weather setups like this, I keep flashbacks of March 21st 2013, the day we had those tornadoes tear through Northern Victoria and along the Murray River, especially Yarrawonga/Mulwala! No supercells here that day, but it was one wild, windy, stormy day nonetheless. eek

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#1416366 - 26/03/2017 22:49 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the Central, South West, North Central, West and South Gippsland and parts of the East Gippsland, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 9:22 pm Sunday, 26 March 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:

Strengthening northerly winds ahead of a cold front crossing Victoria on Monday.

DAMAGING WINDS, northerly averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are expected to develop from the west during Monday morning ahead of a squally west to southwesterly change reaching the west later in the morning, central districts in the early afternoon and Gippsland later in the afternoon. Wind gusts of 100km/h are possible in elevated areas, coastal areas, particularly near and immediately following the change. Wind gusts of 100km/h are also possible with thunderstorms in central and eastern parts during the afternoon.

Winds are expected to rapidly ease an hour or two after change.

Locations which may be affected include Warrnambool, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Traralgon and Bairnsdale.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am AEDT Monday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1416521 - 27/03/2017 08:18 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
To go out on a limb, if one went by ACCESS this morning and the cloud in the sat. pics, we won't get to the forecast 35C and could get up to 30mm...............some big rain shown over a small area and we are very close to under it.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

GFS doesn't think so & EC 10.5mm.

Be interesting to see how accurate the forecasts/models are for today.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1416627 - 27/03/2017 11:11 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.1C, currently a sunny windy, mostly sunny start to the day, around 29C. Started getting blustery here in Belgrave around 1am last night.

Cloud is thickening up on satellite, but plenty of clear air ahead of the change do hopefully some good storms will develop today! smile

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#1416760 - 27/03/2017 12:46 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Getting hot out there now, currently approaching 33C! eek

The change is entering metropolitan Melbourne now and should hit my side of the bay in an hour or so! And check out that fast-moving storm front that's suddenly erupted over the Western Plains and down to Cape Otway over the past hour!! grin

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#1416810 - 27/03/2017 13:39 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
And check out that fast-moving storm front that's suddenly erupted over the Western Plains and down to Cape Otway over the past hour!! grin


Yes, ASF. Like three ocean waves - can see them in both radar and sat images. 35C here atm with only moderate NWly wind.

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#1416851 - 27/03/2017 14:11 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Bairnsdale temp passing 37C now. Moderate wind @ Bairnsdale AWS but gone dead calm here.

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#1416855 - 27/03/2017 14:15 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: ThunderBob]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
And check out that fast-moving storm front that's suddenly erupted over the Western Plains and down to Cape Otway over the past hour!! grin


Yes, ASF. Like three ocean waves - can see them in both radar and sat images. 35C here atm with only moderate NWly wind.


Yes indeed TB! And the first "ocean wave" has arrived, it started raining quite heavily about 5 minutes ago! smile

The main change itself arrived at 1:46pm, accompanied by a wild-looking shelfie, and howling winds that abruptly swung from northwest to southeast; it got dark and cloudy about 1:30pm. Temperature's dropping sharply now, currently around 23C, having peaked at 32.7C.

The main storm front has reached Geelong, and should slam head-on into Melbourne over the next hour! Camera ready for action!! =D

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#1416871 - 27/03/2017 14:29 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 667
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
What a day to accidentally leave my car's sunroof open at the train station while I'm at work in the CBD.... weather gods why you do this?!

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#1416874 - 27/03/2017 14:32 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Just look at the Melbourne (Laverton) radar, it's going ballistic all across the metropolitan area! The main storm front is still closing in fast, but storms are firing up super-quick ahead of it, with some very nasty cells with dark red (and lightning) now forming over the eastern suburbs! One of which is heading straight at me from the northwest!! =D

Had a momentary power surge here about 10 minutes ago, collected 2.1mm of rain so far. Peak rainfall rate on my weather station is 3.8mm/hr. Temperature's down to 21C and falling. Barometric pressure reading 1007hPa, having bottomed at 1003hPa.

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#1416891 - 27/03/2017 14:47 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Wow, met and surpassed f'cast max of 35C already, Sale 37.5C, B'dale 37.5C, L/Valley 37.8C.

Currently 33C and hot gusting N - N/W, getting towards 80% cloud.


Edited by samboz (27/03/2017 14:48)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1416982 - 27/03/2017 16:30 Re: Icing on the cake for the Autumn Break Mon 27th - Frid 31st March, 2017. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Cold change arrived in a freight train (sorry Balmz) hurry about 1545hrs, wind calmed off behind it and the temp dropped from 34C to 23C and still going down.

Not much rain, 0.2mm this stage.

Nice day to make CHILLI Sauce eek mad blush shocked

Good shower coming down as I post.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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