Page 45 of 138 < 1 2 ... 43 44 45 46 47 ... 137 138 >
Topic Options
#1416356 - 26/03/2017 22:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 119
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
Looking to the NE, can actually see a very defined band of high level cirrus streaming down from TC Debbie, as also seen here:

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?s...tart=&stop=#nav


Caught a photo of these clouds as they went over my place this evening.


Top
#1416371 - 26/03/2017 22:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 266
Loc: Golden Beach
I saw that distinct front of clouds today to the north - awesome weather feature. Like dust billowing from an explosion.

Top
#1416390 - 26/03/2017 23:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1135
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Nice piccy well done
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1420121 - 31/03/2017 08:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 145
Loc: Roma, Qld
Brrrrrr - a bit chilly in Roma this morning
Forecast (and got down to) around 11 but apparent temp 6.1 at 0600 due to SWerly

Top
#1420122 - 31/03/2017 08:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6946
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yep that was it Pharbelle, it looked quite spectacular from here. Nice shot.

And yeah, a touch of winter in the air this morning!

Top
#1420200 - 31/03/2017 15:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2084
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
So after yesterday's record-breaking event I was thinking that we seem to have a lot of them this decade compared to previous:

2011 - January floods
2013 - Ex-TC Oswald
2015 - Ex-TC Marcia, May ECL
2017 - Ex-TC Debbie

That's a high-end to extreme inflow event almost every two years that dumped huge amounts of rain in a 24-48 hr period, broke significant records and caused major flooding in SEQ rivers. This seemed unusual to me because I can remember following SEQ weather since the late 90s and could only recall one major event that had similar rainfall and impacts (May 1996).

So I went and looked at the 'Known Floods in the Brisbane & Bremer River Basin' and sure enough this decade has been quite unique. Presuming the Brisbane River reaches minor flood levels tonight, that's 3 times this decade. Looking at the previous history we went almost 15 years from 1974 to early 1990 without any flooding of the lower Brisbane River and it was again quiet for around 10 years from 1996 to the late 2000s when the drought broke. The Bremer River floods more easily, but similar gaps are present there. I would also add that since Somerset and Wivenhoe were built and operated in tandem by the end of the 1970s, rain events arguably have to be far more extreme or centred further south to cause flooding levels in the lower catchment. So comparison with previous 'flood clusters' on the graphs is not as useful.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

This really has been a special decade in terms of the frequency of these extreme rain events. What also struck me is just how many variables had to come together to cause this and yet it's happened almost every second year. Except for the 2011 floods none of them occurred in rain-bearing/Nina years and often there were large dry spells in between meaning that the rain event had to be very impressive to cause the run-off required for flooding. Predictions in Australia for climate change are that we can expect long stretches of warmer and drier conditions but that rain events will be more extreme due to higher evaporation and moisture retention levels. I wonder if we're seeing this play out already or if it's just a relative anomaly and we're in for another long stretch of uneventful time like 74-90 or 96-07.


Edited by Nature's Fury (31/03/2017 15:24)

Top
#1420205 - 31/03/2017 15:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 454
Loc: Elimbah 4516
I would say it really came to luck that the weather systems lined up for us. Rather than anything to do with climate change. For all those events. The upper level systems could have easily pushed them more east and most of the rainfall could have fallen off the coast. The 1950's to mid 1970's and especially the Mid to late 1800's were a very active period of high end rainfall events that were caused by ECL's or Cyclone impacts to SE QLD and we are probably in an active period right now.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

Top
#1420207 - 31/03/2017 15:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5108
A decent number of stations both here in Australia and other parts of the world have already been recording a significant increase in the magnitude of those extreme rain events (including the intensity of sub-daily amounts) over time. Obviously it's better to have a longer time frame to see whether it really is part of the longer term trend or not. But so far, it does seem consistent with the longer term predictions as well as the basic physics.

It's not so much whether the systems form in the first place to cause such rains... it's more about how much the rainfall from existing systems get enhanced above what they'd normally cause.

P.S. other things worth looking at include significant longterm increases in dewpoints, extreme/record-setting PWAT values, etc.


Edited by Ken Kato (31/03/2017 15:49)
Edit Reason: added stuff

Top
#1420208 - 31/03/2017 16:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5108
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
A decent number of stations both here in Australia and other parts of the world have already been recording a significant increase in the magnitude of those extreme rain events (including the intensity of sub-daily amounts) over time. Obviously it's better to have a longer time frame to see whether it really is part of the longer term trend or not. But so far, it does seem consistent with the longer term predictions as well as the basic physics.

It's not so much whether the systems form in the first place to cause such rains... it's more about how much the rainfall from existing systems get enhanced above what they'd normally cause.

P.S. other things worth looking at include significant longterm increases in dewpoints, extreme/record-setting PWAT values, etc.

Oh and it's not just ECL's and TC's/ex Tc's either. There's other systems such as upper troughs, surface troughs, convective weather such as thunderstorms, etc where rainfall intensity can be enhanced beyond what would normally occur in the past. Basically anything where extra available moisture can be used to cause precip above and beyond what normally used to occur.

Top
#1420290 - 01/04/2017 00:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Squeako_88]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 329
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I would argue that the ex-TC Marcia event was not that remarkable, in particular for the Brisbane area. I remember us (and most areas further south of here) getting <50mm.

Also, if you were to include the May 2015 storm event, you should include the March 2001 storm/ECL event which produced similar rain totals, except around the southside, rather than up around Caboolture. The 2015 event did produce very minor flooding in the lower Brisbane (1.82m at the Port Office gauge) while the 2001 event didn't, but I don't think it's a fair representation to exclude the March 2001 event but include the May 2015 one.

This event is certainly one for the record books, though. Up there with Oswald.
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.

Top
#1420298 - 01/04/2017 03:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1172
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks Lewis for your post. For where I live and south the heaviest rain occurred(followed by about 18 hours of drizzle) well before Marcia made her brief appearance.

Top
#1420299 - 01/04/2017 03:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1172
Loc: Toowoomba
I really feel for those going through the floods, especially Lismore. I was living in South Lismore during the 1974 floods, a frightening experience.

Top
#1420303 - 01/04/2017 08:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5108
I'll never forget the ECL in May 2015 - the worst flooding I've ever seen in my area and far worse than 2011 here.

And only one week after the deadly ECL in NSW which washed away houses in Dungog.

Then came the three rounds of highland snow a couple of months later.

This was my area:


Top
#1420530 - 03/04/2017 05:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
wow a lot of water there Ken

Top
#1420582 - 03/04/2017 13:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10333
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Onshore showers have brought 11.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, and 14.4mm since 9am. Some of the showers have been quite solid, though brief. During a shower late this morning -


Rain has fallen here on 30 of the past 38 days with 603.2mm falling over this 38-day period (since Feb 25th).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2018 Rainfall: 98.4mm (Apr Avg. 169.9mm) // April 2018 Raindays: 12 (Apr Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 756.2mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 670.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 51 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.8 raindays)

Top
#1420617 - 03/04/2017 17:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2084
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Pretty amazing to see how quickly the weather can change. A month ago we had just seen 30 days of 30+ degrees. A year ago we were going through our hottest/driest summer on record with 30+ degrees every day.

I guess the couple of weeks of showers/storms across SEQ in early March and the ECL in NE NSW set up the catchments for Debbie quite effectively. I still can't get over just how much rain there was and flooding there has been across central and south-east Queensland.

Next few weeks looks like quite boring cool SE'lies, but much needed relief. Need a month without a rain event to let the catchments settle down.

Top
#1420626 - 03/04/2017 18:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2421
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I know this is way outside of the SEQ but the events in Peru and South America have been staggering. The flooding has destroyed nearly 200,000 homes so far this year.

The death toll has risen to 98, while nearly another million people have been severely affected. A total of 2,625 km of roads and 242 bridges have also been swept away.
Also worth a read. http://mashable.com/2017/03/29/peru-flooding-coastal-el-nino/#6OPZn5bd7mqh .

While not looking like I am downplaying what has happened here which has been horrific I am glad I am not over there.

The other thing is if you where to total the deaths from the major events that have been posted here, it is very high.

2011 - January floods
2013 - Ex-TC Oswald
2015 - Ex-TC Marcia, May ECL
2017 - Ex-TC Debbie

The total deaths form these events (if I have not missed any) for QLD and Ne NSW only is 54 with 3 still missing. Unfortunately the number could still climb. A lot of these fatalities where not from not acting in a sensible manner, many where caught in flash flooding, just simply caught out. Very sad.

I have never been in so many 1 in 100 storms in my life. That is 51 years of living in QLD.


_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1420629 - 03/04/2017 18:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2084
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
I know this is way outside of the SEQ but the events in Peru and South America have been staggering. The flooding has destroyed nearly 200,000 homes so far this year.

The death toll has risen to 98, while nearly another million people have been severely affected. A total of 2,625 km of roads and 242 bridges have also been swept away.
Also worth a read. http://mashable.com/2017/03/29/peru-flooding-coastal-el-nino/#6OPZn5bd7mqh .

While not looking like I am downplaying what has happened here which has been horrific I am glad I am not over there.

The other thing is if you where to total the deaths from the major events that have been posted here, it is very high.

2011 - January floods
2013 - Ex-TC Oswald
2015 - Ex-TC Marcia, May ECL
2017 - Ex-TC Debbie

The total deaths form these events (if I have not missed any) for QLD and Ne NSW only is 54 with 3 still missing. Unfortunately the number could still climb. A lot of these fatalities where not from not acting in a sensible manner, many where caught in flash flooding, just simply caught out. Very sad.

I have never been in so many 1 in 100 storms in my life. That is 51 years of living in QLD.




Hardly surprising seeing how high the SSTs are over there. 5+ anomalies extending down into the subsurface. If that gets carried further west by the trades we're in for another big El Nino.

There was some discussion a page or so ago about these events. I think part of it is bad luck/chance that we've had a cluster of these events, but certainly the atmosphere's increasing ability to hold more moisture during rain events surely must be contributing. Based on statistics so far this decade we'll have another insane event in 2 years time or maybe sooner.

Top
#1420632 - 03/04/2017 19:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Colin Maitland]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Whenever I hear of extreme rain events in Peru I immediately think El Nino.

This is from the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/peru-floods-ocean-climate-change
Abraham Levy, a Peruvian meteorologist, said the weather conditions were “extremely unusual” and the storms and flooding were caused by the “atypical” warming of sea surface temperatures off Peru’s northern coast by five to six degrees to 29C.

He described the phenomenon as a “coastal El Niño”. The last time this was seen was nearly a century ago in 1925.


The current BOM ENSO prognosis is 50% probability of an El Nino in 2017.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
_________________________
Science is the only answer

Top
#1420640 - 03/04/2017 19:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Whenever I hear of extreme rain events in Peru I immediately think El Nino.

This is from the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/peru-floods-ocean-climate-change
Abraham Levy, a Peruvian meteorologist, said the weather conditions were “extremely unusual” and the storms and flooding were caused by the “atypical” warming of sea surface temperatures off Peru’s northern coast by five to six degrees to 29C.

He described the phenomenon as a “coastal El Niño”. The last time this was seen was nearly a century ago in 1925.


The current BOM ENSO prognosis is 50% probability of an El Nino in 2017.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


Yeah unfortunately the atmosphere is not cooperating on that. Trades are continuing which makes an proper 3+4 El Niño unlikely until they abate. Again the models are ocean based, they don't take into account the atmosphere.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (03/04/2017 20:01)

Top
Page 45 of 138 < 1 2 ... 43 44 45 46 47 ... 137 138 >


Who's Online
6 registered (ashestoashes, alpine1970, Warmfront, ThunderBob, Purnong, 1 invisible), 56 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
KiwiSonia, paul117, peterh, ringwood weather, Shauno, Simmo FNQ, warm front
Forum Stats
29544 Members
32 Forums
23882 Topics
1489435 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image