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#1420623 - 03/04/2017 17:58 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Bloody wuss.
You'll be feeling it this coming monday.
https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html

(mind you the spag has absolutely no confidence with this event!? No model alignment either with a bullish EC contrasted against GFS (....lets have a ECL))

Though its going to be bloody windy.


Edited by Donzah (03/04/2017 17:59)

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#1420625 - 03/04/2017 18:08 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7147
Lol wow, even only going for 16C here but sunny.

I would actually enjoy that way more than this weather but yes GFS disagrees and goes for a southerly change. I hope yr.no is right but snow early often results in a bad ski season from what I've read.


Edited by Wave Rider (03/04/2017 18:09)
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#1420628 - 03/04/2017 18:29 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Lol wow, even only going for 16C here but sunny.

I would actually enjoy that way more than this weather but yes GFS disagrees and goes for a southerly change. I hope yr.no is right but snow early often results in a bad ski season from what I've read.

Snow season, no real correlation between early snow and poor seasons.
The worst i've experienced had snow on the 23rd April, The best....the same dates. It just matters what happens after. Its been a season of weather. It might be snow weather as well.

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#1420633 - 03/04/2017 19:02 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7147
Ah okay, that's good then. Hopefully it's a great winter for skiing, I'm hoping to get down there again this year but maybe not camping this time.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1420636 - 03/04/2017 19:19 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Ah okay, that's good then. Hopefully it's a great winter for skiing, I'm hoping to get down there again this year but maybe not camping this time.

Snow this monday then again at Easter would be a great thing for the vibe.
Snow in May can stick around.

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#1420639 - 03/04/2017 19:55 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Donzah]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2588
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Donzah


Though its going to be bloody windy.


Music to my ears.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1420641 - 03/04/2017 20:01 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8706
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Some fairly solid echoes offshore, wonder if it's worth a trip to the beach for some lightning.

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#1420642 - 03/04/2017 20:09 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4679
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I never found much relationship between seasons in a year, although there seems to be a month to month consistency.

Based on no scientific evidence but just a general knowledge and experience, I would say that the weather goes through phases in which a pattern might persist for weeks or months, then flip into another one fairly quickly.

So hot, dry Springs turn into damp, humid Summers when Westerlies are replaced by Easterlies (e.g. late 1980s). Or a mild, wet Autumn (possibly lasting into June) is followed by a dry Winter as Westerlies take over (e.g. last year). Or, as in late February this year, a dominant Northerly pattern with occasional Southerly intrusions was replaced with a dominant South Easterly pattern, flipping us from a very hot, humid Summer into a mild and very wet Autumn.

As to what happens this year? Who knows? I think this Easterly pattern will persist for a while, until the belt of high pressure shifts far enough North to stop the formation of Easterly troughs and to allow Southern Ocean cold fronts to get through. It might end in a few weeks, it will probably end before July.

As to the snow season? No idea.

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#1420643 - 03/04/2017 20:49 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6114
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I never found much relationship between seasons in a year, although there seems to be a month to month consistency.

Based on no scientific evidence but just a general knowledge and experience, I would say that the weather goes through phases in which a pattern might persist for weeks or months, then flip into another one fairly quickly.

So hot, dry Springs turn into damp, humid Summers when Westerlies are replaced by Easterlies (e.g. late 1980s). Or a mild, wet Autumn (possibly lasting into June) is followed by a dry Winter as Westerlies take over (e.g. last year). Or, as in late February this year, a dominant Northerly pattern with occasional Southerly intrusions was replaced with a dominant South Easterly pattern, flipping us from a very hot, humid Summer into a mild and very wet Autumn.

As to what happens this year? Who knows? I think this Easterly pattern will persist for a while, until the belt of high pressure shifts far enough North to stop the formation of Easterly troughs and to allow Southern Ocean cold fronts to get through. It might end in a few weeks, it will probably end before July.

As to the snow season? No idea.


That is a brilliant post and exactly how I see things.
Generally, after a period of unusual weather, the flip flop happens and we get a period of unusual weather of the opposite scale.
A long drought is always broken with a prolonged wet spell.
A heat wave is generally followed by a cooler spell.

Wet followed by dry. Dry by wet.
Heat by cool or cool by heat


As for early snow falls meaning a poor snow season.......that's an old wives tale. A load of crap.


It's always been the case.

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#1420644 - 03/04/2017 21:02 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7147
It's a clear and starry night here after some more heavy showers a little while ago. 15C and a light westerly.

PS: Yep Steve flip flop phases seem to be pretty normal and I'm sure we will get a long clear run at some point to counteract this current pattern.


Edited by Wave Rider (03/04/2017 21:04)
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#1420647 - 03/04/2017 21:33 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1225
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Late 80s were very wet in summer and autumns from memory, even up to the 89/90 summer. (90/91 was one of the hottest).
Rain has been falling on and off all day today. (at least it stayed away for tennis this evening, until the end)
Looking like it has set in again now, damp and coolish.
Last year March and April were hot and dry, most days above average.
Certainly not complaining this year, after record February heat.


Edited by DerekHV (03/04/2017 21:35)

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#1420649 - 03/04/2017 21:44 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8706
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
You can use the flip flop of weather patterns as a guide to how a snow season will pan out. For eg: a prolonged warm or easterly pattern in April/May would change to a strong westerly pattern in time for winter as the highs move north allowing strong fronts in. Knowing how the pieces of the climatic puzzle will fall in place as to how much snow will fall is the hard part, but the best way to do it would be gathering historical data and adding in the climatic cycles (SAM, IOD, ENSO) giving a somewhat reasonable probabilistic outlook with perhaps a 60-70% success rate.

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#1420666 - 04/04/2017 07:38 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Out of interests sake, I ran a synoptic chart loop from April to June year 2000.
Frontal porn
Now i need to work out how to record it

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#1420667 - 04/04/2017 07:44 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1225
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Heavy rain since 1st daylight this morning, not good when you are off work for the week to do anything outside.
Only about 10mm recorded at the Airport since around 5am, but will no doubt be more than that at Belmore Bridge in Maitland.

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#1420681 - 04/04/2017 09:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2588
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
A real wind burst from south woke me up at around 2.50am this morning. With accompanying rain that must have come from a few different directions. Was weird. My front door has good eave coverage but faces north. Unless the wind and rain comes from that direction I dont get any water under the front door. But sometime between going back to bed and getting up at 5am there must have been swirling rain out of the nor east/ north/nor west as I had some water come in on floor tiles. might have to invest in a weatherstrip of some kind.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1420694 - 04/04/2017 11:38 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7147
Originally Posted By: Knot
A real wind burst from south woke me up at around 2.50am this morning. With accompanying rain that must have come from a few different directions. Was weird. My front door has good eave coverage but faces north. Unless the wind and rain comes from that direction I dont get any water under the front door. But sometime between going back to bed and getting up at 5am there must have been swirling rain out of the nor east/ north/nor west as I had some water come in on floor tiles. might have to invest in a weatherstrip of some kind.


Interesting, perhaps the wind was so strong that it got around to the front door somehow. I'd be very surprised if the true wind direction was from the northern quadrants. Edit: Maybe there was a strong thunderstorm core just to your north and there were outflow winds from that direction?

We had a very squally shower earlier with strong SEly winds probably up to 50km/h and then it eased when the rain stopped.


Edited by Wave Rider (04/04/2017 11:40)
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1420695 - 04/04/2017 11:46 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Hammering down in Wollongong.
Again.
Suns out for a bit, gets some lovely juice off the ocean and rolls in.

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#1420698 - 04/04/2017 12:25 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10149
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Mostly sunny out here grin

Pleasant breezes, about 18 degrees but feels MUCH warmer in that constant sunshine laugh

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#1420699 - 04/04/2017 12:26 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3235
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Chucking it down in Shellharbour ATM, flash flood material if it keeps up more than another 30 mins or so


Still only light rain out here.


Amazing how coastal some of these falls were. Around 5pm it was torrential again at Shellharbour, but could see broken cloud westwards. Mate at work got 40mm in the gauge.
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1420700 - 04/04/2017 12:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: DerekHV]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3235
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Late 80s were very wet in summer and autumns from memory, even up to the 89/90 summer. (90/91 was one of the hottest).
Rain has been falling on and off all day today. (at least it stayed away for tennis this evening, until the end)
Looking like it has set in again now, damp and coolish.
Last year March and April were hot and dry, most days above average.
Certainly not complaining this year, after record February heat.


I used to keep weather stats in the 1980's and we had 2 summers at Mt Warrigal (2kms from beach at Shellharbour), where it did not reach 30C, although I think 1 had a 30C in November. I remember all the cafes at Bondi complaining about lost business.
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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