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#1421145 - 09/04/2017 17:48 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 602
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Plenty of room left in the gauge here too Samboz. But, who knows, another 60mm in there by the end of Monday? Couple of sharp showers amounting to about 5mm here today. Also plenty of sun. Radar around Melbourne pretty good atm (25mm so far at Ballarat).

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#1421149 - 09/04/2017 17:55 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Petros

The SatIR shows the cold air pool that crossed Mt Gambier heading NE'wards earlier today seems to be tracking near Wagga Wagga with some remnant ENE'ly momentum remaining. I greedily hope it can end up NE'wards enough to encourage the recently formed low level centre over King Island to track towards Merimbula.


This model shows the wind flow nicely P, some still heading S for us-

https://www.windytv.com/?-37.046,145.085,7
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1421154 - 09/04/2017 18:02 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta Samboz.

For me, the models have done their job (another excellent performance), we now have a cut-off low as predicted. .....now it's time to watch Radar/SatIR loops to see what actually transpires! smile

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#1421165 - 09/04/2017 18:50 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
To my fellow Gippslander's, I'm certainly no expert, but to me, it seems like the rain blobs that have just recently formed in Bass Straight (near our coast between Seaspray and Bairnsdale) "could" potentially be the early formation of SE'ly "wrap-around" south-easterly showers that may soon reverse back up into Gippsland?



Edited by Petros (09/04/2017 18:53)

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#1421173 - 09/04/2017 19:31 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6134
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
After a frustrating break in the rain for an hour or so its back into it now. Some amazing totals W and SW of here already.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1421179 - 09/04/2017 19:56 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Stuck in "the eye of the storm", with even the 'bay effect' being switched off... for the moment. poke

But 20.0mm of rain in total for this event so far here in Belgrave, with 14.7mm since 9am. Not bad! smile

Very little wind, still waiting for the anticipated gales to arrive. And hoping that "wrap-around" can shift northeast and deluge my area overnight; had some distant thunder and lightning to our southwest about 30 minutes ago... from all the way down on the Surf Coast/Cape Otway region! Also a couple of planes flying very low overhead as they begin their descent into Melbourne Airport. smile

Barometric pressure managed to dip down to 1002hPa earlier, now it's 1003hPa.

Temperature currently 7.1C, having nudged 6.9C a short while ago, so it is cold out there! Already it's my coldest night for the year so far, but still a long way to go before it beats my coldest April minimum of 4.4C, set on April 20th 2015. poke crazy eek

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#1421180 - 09/04/2017 19:56 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Heavy rain and GFS chart is right for rain from Ocean Grove right through Geelong, Ballarat Bendigo..

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#1421190 - 09/04/2017 20:59 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1017
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
15mm here so far and that's fallen from last
Night through to lunch today.
Thinks we're currently in the eye of the storm
Atm? Calm and a chilly 7c up here.
Waiting for our turn to come, Petros u are
All over that radar and agree with those
Blobs of rain developing, I'm thinking this could
Be the very early stages of development
For Gippsland 😀
Really not sure how severe this event is
Going to be, but sure sounds and looks
Like we could be in for a wild 24hrs once
She winds right up!

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#1421194 - 09/04/2017 21:46 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Still raining over 3 hours made nearly 30mm

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#1421197 - 09/04/2017 21:56 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
malteaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/01/2007
Posts: 81
Loc: Torquay and Geelong
36 mm, all day around the back of Geelong and on and off, but the last couple of hours has not let up and real rain. I can see geelong hospital from my place (700 m) up the road, today I couldn't even see the flickering of the helicopter pad. Cloud so low I might go down to the Barwon River, should be good numbers considering the rainfall up the road, like to see Inverleigh levels. Otways copping it west between Colac and Moriac through to Meredith all areas that really need the rain. Low lying also, glad I have the day of tomorrow might go check it out, just remember if it's flooded forget it. still pumping even as I write.

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#1421200 - 09/04/2017 23:31 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 266
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Getting hammered here in Tarneit. Pity my rain gauge was playing up this evening. If i was to guess I would say getting close to 40mm now based on other PWS. Still coming down, heaviest consistent rain in years.
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Wunderground

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#1421206 - 10/04/2017 00:41 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Moz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2013
Posts: 142
Loc: Melbourne - SE Suburbs
geez... pretty tough logging onto the radar screen every so often to see areas no further than an hours drive west being hammered for hours on end whilst we have only had the odd shower since late afternoon here. Fair enough though, considering we generally win out in rain events.

Don't mind the look of the sat loop atm however... might get something in the SE suburbs yet

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#1421207 - 10/04/2017 00:44 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 519
Loc: Chadstone Vic
The big wrap is beginning

Watch out Gippy tons of wrap around exploding in BS and moving W NW then N NE

Big in W Melb which is great they always miss out 50-70mm for many odd 100mm likley too.

Enjoy
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1421217 - 10/04/2017 08:28 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Little wind at Maffra so far. Rain coming in from SW atm. Havrnt checked gauge yet.

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#1421220 - 10/04/2017 08:58 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Nice steady rain, not a lot of run off here although it's raining heavier in the high country just to the north. Mt Moornapa has 27.6mm and home around 20mm.

Very little wind, not that cold either with 13C.

Our forecast for the rest of the week 19C tomorrow and low 20"s to Sunday @ 24C, sounds good.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1421223 - 10/04/2017 09:16 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Hopefully this shows up as it did here -

https://www.windytv.com/?rain,-38.754,148.337,6

Excellent animation.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1421229 - 10/04/2017 09:51 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 202
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
We got completely robbed on the east side of town frown

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#1421230 - 10/04/2017 09:58 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
So much for the 50-100mm falls anticipated for my area, but glad to see that the normally drier areas west of Melbourne got a drenching! smile

The wrap-around largely missed us last night, although we managed another 4.3mm of rain, bringing the 9am total to 12.7mm and the event total to 24.3mm. Not bad at all! smile

Hardly much wind that I know of last night as well, and no thunderstorms either. poke

Overnight low of 6.4C, currently around 13C. Cloudy and damp outside.

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#1421235 - 10/04/2017 10:41 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Over average April rain for Kangaroo Flat.
45mm out of average 41.1mm
Now is Gusty winds of 14c

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#1421259 - 10/04/2017 13:44 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Emptied 26.5mm for the event an hour ago, very nice drop of rain and steadying off now as it all heads E.

Guessing - but rainfall figures for the south side river catchments probably won't be enough to cause to much grief for NthGipp.

Some very good falls round the event, our fire is almost lit for the first time this year, probably tonight.

Currently 15C and intermittent showers.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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