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#1420819 - 05/04/2017 20:12 VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey g'day gang! Bula. smile

New thread for the next upcoming event, so here we go.

The models and charts are more or less in agreement that a potentially major winter storm is heading our way this coming weekend and early next week!

The next few days should be a continuation of the Indian Summer that Victoria's been enjoy as high pressure moves through. Winds then swing around into a warm/hot northerly airflow in coming days as a mighty Antarctic cold front breaks free from an enormous, deepening low pressure system on the move in the Southern Ocean, then charges northbound towards Southern Australia and then interacts with a trough coming down from the northwest to form a possible cut-off low/ECL on Sunday into early next week. smile

For tomorrow (Thursday)...

Fine apart from smoke haze, mainly across the south and east. Mild to warm and mostly sunny with light to moderate northerly winds and afternoon coastal seabreezes. Forecast tops of 26C for Melbourne and 28C for Mildura.

For Friday...

Fine apart from morning fog in Gippsland, and areas of smoke haze. Continuing mild to warm and mostly sunny with light to moderate northerly winds and afternoon seabreezes. Forecast tops of 27C for Melbourne and 29C for Mildura.

For Saturday...

Fine and sunny at first, then cloud increasing with showers and possible thunderstorms developing across the Western districts then spreading eastwards. Warm to hot with moderate to fresh northwest/northerly winds shifting cooler westerly from the west. Forecast tops of 27C for Melbourne and 32C for Mildura.

For Sunday...

Showers (maybe storms and hail?) throughout, clearing from the Northwest/Mallee region during the afternoon. Snowfalls down to 1200m. Cool with fresh to strong, gusty southwesterly winds spreading throughout. Forecast tops of 19C for Melbourne and 20C for Mildura.

Have a good one guys! Looking forward to this event, but for now I'll hang onto this beautiful weather. wink

Aussiestormfreak

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#1420855 - 06/04/2017 09:17 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.4C, currently around 20C, again hazy and sunny. smile

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#1420902 - 06/04/2017 18:47 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for starting the thread ASF.

Cut-off lows in April - us Gipplanders just love these! smile smile


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#1420907 - 06/04/2017 19:12 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Could do alright out of this cold front, country looking pretty good compared to a couple of weeks ago. smile

Models coming together well and talking say 15 - 30mm.

(Agree dooga' re fairly quick passage of the front)


Edited by samboz (06/04/2017 19:15)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1420924 - 06/04/2017 21:56 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cheers Doogasnow! smile

Looks like a great system coming up, and my side of Melbourne -
the Dandenong Ranges area - should really benefit with the "bay effect" coming into play; could be some very juicy, beefy heavy coldie shower and thunderstorm action with hail on Sunday! A storm or two would be also be a nice surprise for Saturday when the pre-frontal trough moves in. Hoping for upwards of 25-30mm of rain for this event. smile

Reached a warm top of 28.8C here in Belgrave today. The day got off to a lousy start; northeast winds blew smoke down into Melbourne from burn-off activity in the Central Highlands and Alpine region, and it was literally raining ash until lunchtime, when winds finally turned more towards the northwest. Otherwise, a mostly sunny day. smile

There's been a burn-off around Cardinia Reservoir over the past two days, which left an impressive smoke plume topped off with pyrocumulus to our east! smile

At the last check around two hours ago it was about 17C.

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#1420944 - 07/04/2017 09:39 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 15.8C, currently around 21C and sunny. More horrible smoke haze this morning, but thankfully the northerly wind is kicking up, so hopefully it'll clear in coming hours. smile

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#1420967 - 07/04/2017 16:25 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a warm top of 27.8C here in Belgrave today, and at the last check it was around 25C. smile

Mostly sunny, although high cloud began arriving from the west towards midday while I was down in Boronia. Also the usual fair-weather cumulus.

Northerlies freshened up throughout the day and finally cleared the horrid smoke, even though it still looked somewhat hazy towards the northern horizon when I finished up at work after 3pm.

Barometric pressure down to 1020hPa, having peaked at 1025hPa last night.

Flood watches now out for Melbourne and Gippsland. Could turn nasty on Sunday! eek

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#1420977 - 07/04/2017 17:58 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Forgot to add this to my last post, but my area in Belgrave looks likely to accumulate up to 80mm of rain by the time this event is done and dusted, of which around 25-70mm is expected on Sunday alone! Yarra Glen is currently anticipating around 100mm in total, with 30-90mm for Sunday. Time will tell if it comes off, but if it comes off then could be some serious flooding about. eek

Skies have cleared now, and it's getting darker and cooler. Currently around 21C

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#1420981 - 07/04/2017 18:29 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Sunday a possible asf but Monday looking the bigger wet according to what I could find today.

It will all be handy, especially while we have some ground warmth left and experiencing mid 20's days.

Re floods, some big catchment rain forecasts however recent reasonable falls didn't rate a trickle lower down as not much run off and lots of holes in the river bed to fill before it gets down here.

All depends how fast it comes down I guess.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1420982 - 07/04/2017 18:36 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Bummer I did it again, I credited the wrong person. Sorry Petros! blush

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#1420986 - 07/04/2017 19:02 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Non of us need credit for our posts ASF - but thanks anyway.

Still looking interesting, especially for us greedy Gippslanders!:



[edit] - makes having to work on Sunday a "not so bad option" - hopefully will substitute to a day off in better weather! wink


Edited by Petros (07/04/2017 19:03)

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#1420993 - 07/04/2017 23:35 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Its interesting for US watch fast cold upper low running over Victoria over 72 hours of 4 stages wind directions.
1- Warm strong NW/W
2- Cool to Cold SW winds
3- Cool to Cold SW to SE winds
4- Warm SE to NE winds

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#1421005 - 08/04/2017 08:50 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Coriolis coming into that ca?
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1421012 - 08/04/2017 11:26 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6593
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.....and amongst all the interesting wind direction backs and veers will be snow on the Snowies (cold upper air pool Sunday night), and plenty of rain over S Central and SE Vic!


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#1421013 - 08/04/2017 12:32 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Good pics P, thanks!

Know someone at Pambula Beach from today, advised them to take a 'brolly grin .

GFS is probably giving a better local (NthGipp) rainfall coverage than a gappy ACCESS at the mo'.

Either way, when it hits the ground is will all be very handy.

Good snow sites - http://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/snow.cgi


Edited by samboz (08/04/2017 12:40)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1421017 - 08/04/2017 13:47 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.0C, at the last check it was around 29C here in Belgrave. Warm, almost hot, and mostly sunny with gusty northerly winds; most of the smoke has clear now. smile

The radar, satellite and lightning tracker are coming alive across Victoria, check out those storms flaring away along the incoming trough from the Surf Coast and Cape Otway all the way back northwest to the Western Plains! They should strike Melbourne in coming hours. smile

The cold front is on the move in the Southern Ocean, still on a trajectory towards Southeastern Australia; expect it to burst upon Victoria sometime tonight. ACCESS and GFS both still anticipating a deep cut-off low to develop over the next 24 hours in Bass Strait.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (08/04/2017 13:55)

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#1421021 - 08/04/2017 14:59 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice see maybe last summer kind thunderstorms firing up West..

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#1421022 - 08/04/2017 15:06 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV65756
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:55 pm Saturday, 8 April 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Stawell, Warracknabeal, Bendigo, Maryborough and Castlemaine.

A 94km/hr wind gust has been observed with a thunderstorm cell at Warracknabeal, in the Wimmera district.

Damaging wind gusts are possible with any storms that form across the Wimmera, Mallee and western parts of the Northern Country and North Central districts.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:55 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1421024 - 08/04/2017 15:13 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in the Central, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, South West, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:32 pm Saturday, 8 April 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:

A strong cold front is expected to cross the State on Sunday with an associated low pressure system forming over Bass Strait during Sunday afternoon.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/hr with peak gusts to 90 km/h are possible about Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) of the Northeast, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland early Sunday morning, easing by late morning.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to 110 km/h are likely to develop across southeastern parts of the Southwest district during the morning and extend to the Central and North Central districts during the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to ease overnight Sunday into Monday.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible across southeastern parts of the Southwest district, and the Central and North Central districts during Sunday afternoon and evening.

24 hour totals of 40 to 60mm are possible over the Central and North Central districts, particularly in the east. Isolated higher falls of 60-80mm are possible across the ranges. Rainfall is expected to contract to eastern Victoria overnight Sunday into Monday.

Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Kyneton, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;
* Don't walk, ride or drive through flood water;
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains;
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks;
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Saturday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1421025 - 08/04/2017 15:14 Re: VIC - Intense Cold Front, Trough & Possible Cut-Off Low/ECL - Warm, Then Colder, Wet, Windy & Stormy, Possible Alpine Snow - April 6-12 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1112
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Waiting for forcefield to charge!
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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