Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1421064 - 08/04/2017 22:59 Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
We may as well get this thread up and running as it seems there is some confidence growing with its development. JTWC have put an alert out on it with a moderate chance. Models seem to be toying with the idea as well for some time now.

Will this be the final show of the 2016/17 season. Maybe, maybe not.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 080623Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 080054Z (METOP-B) ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20-25 KNOTS
(WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29C) SSTS, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1421065 - 08/04/2017 23:02 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Early indications that I have read have alot of uncertainty in track and intensity but hints of CAT 2 are already being floated around. NT moving SW into WA.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1421081 - 09/04/2017 08:08 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 182
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I've been watching that one for about 4 days now and figured it may turn into something. Not far away from where I am. I'll stick my arm out the window and give it a wave and shout out some encouragement.

Top
#1421097 - 09/04/2017 12:29 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
And here we go ...

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 11:26 am ACST on Sunday 09 April 2017
Headline:
A Tropical Low in the Arafura Sea may develop into a Tropical Cyclone early Tuesday north of the Tiwi Islands.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.
Watch Zone
Tiwi Islands.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 7.5 degrees South 131.9 degrees East, estimated to be 415 kilometres north of Croker Island and 455 kilometres north northeast of Milikapiti.
Movement: slow moving.

A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the next few days and may form into a Tropical Cyclone to the north of the Tiwi Islands early on Tuesday
Hazards:
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop over communities on the Tiwi Islands early on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL may cause flooding of low-lying areas over the Tiwi Islands.

Top
#1421104 - 09/04/2017 13:59 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
I suspect there's too much dry air around and high VWS for this one to amount to much.


Top
#1421107 - 09/04/2017 14:25 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 286
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

There's quite a lot of shear in this tropical low's path. I'd doubt at this point a TC would be formed.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1421109 - 09/04/2017 14:38 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome


Looks
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

There's quite a lot of shear in this tropical low's path. I'd doubt at this point a TC would be formed.


Not good shear for it atm but that shear will ease up a bit tomorrow and will drive it southwards slowly towards the NT coastline.

Pretty sure models agreeing it would have formed just north of Darwin as Cat 1 then move into a more favorable environment as far as wind shear goes off the north Kimberley coast.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1421121 - 09/04/2017 16:30 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Considering what Ernie did out well offshore bombing from A LOW to CAT 5 in 18 hours it just goes to show how quickly things can escalate if the right conditions present themselves even for such a short time. From what I have read on this one there is so much doubt with intensity and track. Wait and see if To be Frances hits high gear at some stage.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1421167 - 09/04/2017 18:58 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yes agree there Popeye. Its in nearly the very same spot that Blanche began to form and most models are not sure what its going to do in its initial stages

Top
#1421188 - 09/04/2017 20:54 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
It is interesting in Darwin today.Most people are welcoming the dry with fresh sw winds and dry (50 percent rel humidity).It wouldn't seem like it will be getting much moisture from the SE

Top
#1421189 - 09/04/2017 20:56 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Sorry I meant south east winds.

Top
#1421246 - 10/04/2017 12:42 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Latest track map has if affecting Darwin - just flew out on Saturday. Hopefully it stays a one and the house is packed up well enough.

Top
#1421257 - 10/04/2017 13:42 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: gecko]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yeh Gecko this one is a tricky buggar. The latest track map takes it thru the guts of the Tiwis before tracking towards the Nth Kimberley coast. That is a huge swing east from the initial map.
Darwin now on a cyclone watch and Tiwis under a warning shocked

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 11:16 am ACST [9:46 am AWST] on Monday 10 April 2017
Headline:
A Warning has been declared for the Tiwi Islands and a Watch is now current for the Darwin area.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Croker island to Cape Fourcroy, including the Tiwi Islands.
Watch Zone
Point Stuart to Daly River Mouth, including Darwin.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST [8:00 am AWST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 9.0 degrees South 132.9 degrees East, estimated to be 365 kilometres northeast of Milikapiti and 440 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.
Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.

A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the next few days and may form into a Tropical Cyclone to the north of the Tiwi Islands on Tuesday morning.
Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the north coast of the Tiwi Islands and Cobourg Peninsula on Tuesday morning and extend along the Cobourg Peninsula between Goulburn Island and Cape Don later on Tuesday.

GALES may extend south to mainland coastal areas between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin during Wednesday if the cyclone maintains its southwest track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between Cape Fourcroy and Goulburn Island as the cyclone centre approaches the coast on Tuesday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding on the Tiwi Islands, Cobourg Peninsula and northwest Top End from Tuesday.

Top
#1421263 - 10/04/2017 14:31 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome


Should have no trouble maintaining its moisture levels once its get a good circulation going in the short term anyway.
Monssonal trough to the north east got heaps of convection around for the LLC to suck in.

Interesting to see how it steers in the next 24 hours especially with the ridge building from the SW and how much it will move to the south towards the vicinity of Darwin area.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1421269 - 10/04/2017 15:41 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
The models don't seem to be giving this one much of a chance of developing into anything much more than a cat 1. BOM has been edging its track further east, the system is currently moving slightly to the east of south and is positioned a little to the east of dead north of Darwin (as at 12:22 CST). The track map puts it slightly west of that position and already moving to the south west. At this stage position and direction are critical as to whether it's a direct hit on the Tiwis or Darwin, or whether not. Slight changes will make a big difference. Be interesting to know what dry air there is pushing off from the continent towards this system. It was starting to reach Ernie, which is a long way off the coast.

Top
#1421293 - 10/04/2017 20:04 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think the way TC Ernie and TC Cook have bombed away either side of the Australian continent over the last week is a nice indicator as to what an mid April TC Frances might do. I am over looking at models and what they might say these days as they are usually crap and way off the mark. Recent history proves that. All I know is that it will only take 24hrs in a nice slot to get up to speed as a High end CAT 3 and away she will go. I honestly think the Cape Leveque to Eighty Mile will be cringing later in the week as this one sneaks in. Even in a weakening form she might still surprise.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1421294 - 10/04/2017 20:07 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I reckon CAT 2 Bidyadanga to Eco Beach recurve. Complete pissed forecats this by the way lol
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1421296 - 10/04/2017 20:17 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
High Baby. JTWC Talking her chances up a little which is a good sign.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5S 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 295
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090946Z SSMIS PASS DEPICT WEAK BANDING AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE WEST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091310Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS SHOWS A
SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH, BUT DECREASING, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF AUSTRALIA WHILE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1421298 - 10/04/2017 21:05 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Breeze now picking up and the rain squalls are just starting.Looking at the radar and sat images I think it will pass close to darwin.Still not showing much organisation though .Maybe the diurnal effect might ramp it up a bit.Quite a nice evening though.

Top
#1421300 - 10/04/2017 21:23 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 322
Loc: Broome, WA
Thangoo station is my bet popeye... it will lose steam but ramp up again just before crosssing - cat 2 like you said....

Top
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
8 registered (LightningGus, Homer, Mad Elf #1.5, seaworthy, DNO, liberator, Mathew, DarrylS), 297 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Luke-wx, siebrand, Weather Freak1
Forum Stats
29298 Members
32 Forums
23628 Topics
1454421 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image