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#1421306 - 10/04/2017 23:04 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3170
Loc: Broome


Forecast starting to ramp it up a bit in a couple of days.


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1421308 - 10/04/2017 23:37 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3170
Loc: Broome


Tropical low has to suck in a much convection as possible from the monsoonal trough to the north to keep its integrity..

Should have no trouble with intensifying though as long it can maintain a good moisture level around its LLC to fend off the dry air to the south west .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1421311 - 11/04/2017 00:16 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3170
Loc: Broome

See some good moisture levels and convection happening here.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421314 - 11/04/2017 04:59 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Nice work Desieboy. Has been raining lightly/steadily all night and plenty of wind gusts but nothing too major. Just heading off to work now so will probably get sent home wink

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#1421322 - 11/04/2017 08:46 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like EC is putting the system closer to Darwin than GFS and BOM. They also have is keeping within JBG and dissipating over the Kimberley.

BOM in it's technical bulletin (19:51 UTC 10/04/2017) notes:

In the longer term, the combination of increased vertical wind shear and dry air is likely to weaken the system below cyclone intensity by Saturday.

Saturday is still a fair way off (in a cyclone's life), there's no real certainty in any of it.

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#1421325 - 11/04/2017 09:27 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

Shear is still poor for its current position.
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#1421353 - 11/04/2017 14:45 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Commander Brent Warren of NT Emergency Management has just advised on ABC radio that all the warnings and watches have been cancelled. Doesn't appear the BOM website has caught up with that news just yet.

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#1421356 - 11/04/2017 15:08 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Finally came through


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#1421365 - 11/04/2017 16:49 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
The shear ruined its chances before Darwin. Even if it does turn into a cyclone, it will probably only be a Cat 1 with all the forecasted shear.
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#1421369 - 11/04/2017 17:16 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3170
Loc: Broome


Yes SH the shear which was expected to ease last night and early today has stayed strong so has lowered it chances of strong intensification in the short term anyway.

Also the ridge from the west which was forecast to have moved a lot further to the east by now and give it that push towards the SW has not moved into its forecast position .That's left the system moving fairly slowly and is not in too favourable an area atm.

Hopefully things will change for the better when it starts to push more towards the SW in the next 18 hours.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421387 - 11/04/2017 19:55 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
it's interesting to see how much influence the sheer has had on this system .We've been seeing a few eyes -centres passing over us on the radar and observations on the ground.

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#1421390 - 11/04/2017 20:11 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
The record low max temp for April got well and truly beaten today.


Edited by gecko (11/04/2017 20:11)

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#1421394 - 11/04/2017 21:06 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: gecko]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24743
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: gecko
The record low max temp for April got well and truly beaten today.


record max low for april is 24.6C, the temp has to stay below that until 9am tomorrow for the record to be broken.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1421396 - 11/04/2017 21:16 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 170
Loc: Brisbane
I hate the way they measure this. What has tomorrow morning 9am to do with today? And the further east you go (within your time zone) the more strong is the morning sun at 9am and prevent record.

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#1421397 - 11/04/2017 21:27 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Ahab]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2038
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Ahab
I hate the way they measure this. What has tomorrow morning 9am to do with today? And the further east you go (within your time zone) the more strong is the morning sun at 9am and prevent record.

Agreed, think of all that evaporation in four hours of daylight.
Is 9am an accepted world practice?
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Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
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YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1421398 - 11/04/2017 21:27 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Can't believe how cold it is. Don't ever remember feeling as cold as this with a tropical low or cyclone around. I'd like to know why the temp has plummeted so much.

It's unlikely the temp will get anywhere near 24.6 overnight while this low passes over.

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#1421399 - 11/04/2017 21:29 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24743
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
its happened several times here in townsville, winter rainband kept max temp low only for the cloud to clear overnight and 4 hours of sunshine in the morning goes above the recorded temp the day before. just the way it is.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1421404 - 11/04/2017 23:00 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3170
Loc: Broome

Technical info on NT Low at 5pm WST.

Recent satellite imagery shows an area of deep convection sheared southwest of the LLCC with banding features east of the centre along the NT north coast.

CIMSS shows 20-30 knot vertical wind shear over the system, which together with land interaction, continues to limit the low's development. Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern, with the LLCC about 1deg SW of the cold cloud giving a DT of 2.5. Based on a weakening trend, the adjusted MET=2.0. FT based on MET, but CI held at 2.5 as the system remains over water, consistent with surface
observations.

The system is expected to continue moving southwest and pass south of the Tiwi Islands under the influence of the subtropical ridge over WA. The low is expected to experience slightly lower vertical wind shear, allowing TC intensity to be reached Wednesday evening once the low moves into the Timor Sea.

The cyclone may strengthen slightly but remain at category 1 intensity as it passes close to the Kimberley region of WA on Thursday.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421406 - 11/04/2017 23:17 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3170
Loc: Broome


Still got the moisture just got to get into more favorable shear winds so it can get itself together .....

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421427 - 12/04/2017 09:40 Re: Tropical Low (96S) NT-WA April 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1953 UTC 11/04/2017
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 131.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/2.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 12/0000: 12.5S 130.5E: 040 [080]: 025 [045]: 1005
+12: 12/0600: 12.8S 129.8E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1002
+18: 12/1200: 13.1S 128.9E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 12/1800: 13.3S 128.1E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 13/0600: 14.0S 125.6E: 100 [180]: 040 [075]: 998
+48: 13/1800: 14.7S 123.1E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 1001
+60: 14/0600: 15.7S 120.8E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1003
+72: 14/1800: 16.0S 118.9E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 1002
+96: 15/1800: 16.1S 116.6E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1004
+120: 16/1800: 17.4S 116.4E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
The 1800 UTC position just northeast of Darwin is made with good confidence based on radar and surface observations surrounding the Van Diemen Gulf.

Radar indicates segments of weak spiral bands rotating around a LLCC with the strongest band of rain displaced well to the west due to shear. Satellite imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a significant reduction in deep convection, so Dvorak DT could not be determined. MET was 1.5 based on W trend, adjusted to PATof 1.0 due to lack of deep convection. FT is 1.0 based on PAT, with CI held at 2.0. An ASCAT pass at 1312Z showed an area of 25-30 knot winds to the west of the system. However, it is likely the intensity has now decreased due to land interaction and shear, so maximum intensity has been lowered to 25 knots, consistent with CI.

The current environment is unfavourable for significant development of the system due to a combination of land interaction and high vertical wind shear. CIMSS wind shear at 15Z estimates easterly shear of 30-40 knots across the system. The low is located north of the upper level ridge which is providing good poleward outflow and upper divergence. TPW and atmospheric soundings from Darwin and surrounds shows the circulation is within an area of deep moisture, being fed by moist NW monsoonal winds. However of note is the low low-level dew point air south of the system.

Recent motion to the south has been due to a mid-level high centred to the east. A new ridge is expected to develop over central Australia and in combination with weakening monsoonal winds, the system will be steered with a SW to W motion. NWP is in good agreement leading to a high confidence in the forecast track. This track should take the low over open water over the Timor Sea later on Wed and approach the Kimberley coast on Thursday. The low will continue tracking towards the SW until Friday before the system curves around the ridge ahead of an approaching trough.

As the low moves over the Timor Sea, NWP forecasts a slightly more favourable wind shear environment, while moisture and upper level outflow remain good. Therefore there is some potential for the low to deepen and it may reach TC intensity during Thursday. However, during Thursday NWP also shows that the NW moisture source is cut off with dry air wrapping around the W and N sectors, which may slow or limit development. From Friday the combination of increased vertical wind shear and dry air is likely to weaken the system below cyclone intensity during Friday, well north of the WA Pilbara coast. An additional limitation to TC development may be the forecast track towards the Kimberley. A track further to south will have the system cross the Kimberley before TC development can be attained.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

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