Yeh Gecko this one is a tricky buggar. The latest track map takes it thru the guts of the Tiwis before tracking towards the Nth Kimberley coast. That is a huge swing east from the initial map.
Darwin now on a cyclone watch and Tiwis under a warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 11:16 am ACST [9:46 am AWST] on Monday 10 April 2017
A Warning has been declared for the Tiwi Islands and a Watch is now current for the Darwin area.
Croker island to Cape Fourcroy, including the Tiwi Islands.
Point Stuart to Daly River Mouth, including Darwin.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST [8:00 am AWST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 9.0 degrees South 132.9 degrees East, estimated to be 365 kilometres northeast of Milikapiti and 440 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.
Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.
A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the next few days and may form into a Tropical Cyclone to the north of the Tiwi Islands on Tuesday morning.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the north coast of the Tiwi Islands and Cobourg Peninsula on Tuesday morning and extend along the Cobourg Peninsula between Goulburn Island and Cape Don later on Tuesday.
GALES may extend south to mainland coastal areas between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin during Wednesday if the cyclone maintains its southwest track.
A STORM TIDE is expected between Cape Fourcroy and Goulburn Island as the cyclone centre approaches the coast on Tuesday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding on the Tiwi Islands, Cobourg Peninsula and northwest Top End from Tuesday.