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#1421501 - 13/04/2017 09:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Oh and I forgot to add, there's been recent cutting edge research into the phenomenon of Global Wind Oscillation and its correlation with tornado activity in the US.

I don't know whether it has any effect at all on other phenomena such as TC's or severe thunderstorm activity in the Australian region but still, the basic concept of such a broadscale influence like the GWO having an effect on the frequency of phenomena as small as tornadoes over a matter of weeks or months is fascinating stuff.

Here's a presentation on it (be warned, some parts of it are highly technical!)

https://ams.confex.com/recording/ams/28S...per301564_1.mp4

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#1421504 - 13/04/2017 10:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Thanks Ken.

Are you aware of any groups, BOM and others actively researching these features from an Australasian perspective? Do they publish their findings - I am just interested to see if the research gets out into the scientific literature and is incorporated in wider ranging global studies.
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#1421508 - 13/04/2017 10:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/wb08_final.pdf

MV this might help, it's about the GWO and MJO links to each other. They seem to have some correlation with each other. It's really a shame that the ESRL PSD has removed their AAM and GWO products. I don't know of anyone pursuing any research into this field at the moment, let alone exclusively for the Australian region. There's defnitely some research from the past decade which you could find in the AMS journals and/or on Google.

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#1421513 - 13/04/2017 11:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
Positive GWO = more westerly winds, particularly in the tropics, tendancy towards el nino conditions, systems moving west to east faster, and less variation in the jet streams = weaker troughs.

-ve GWO give stronger troughs and ridges, more sheer, and more severe weather for US. In SEQ however this is likely to correspond to La Nina conditions which equals less severe storms, with increased cloud cover in particular. In contrast +ve GWO might lessen sheer world wide and be more favourable for cyclone activity, however we would more likely be in el nino conditions, which increases sheer in Australia (paricularly east coast). From memory el nino tends to see more cyclones/hurricanes etc globally.

It might be interesting to track when GWO is opposite to ENSO as then ENSO and GWO influences might add to each other locally instead of opposing each other.

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#1421516 - 13/04/2017 11:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2225
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
NZ about to get Round 2. This looks like quite a serious event for them and so soon after Debbie.

Can't believe there hasn't been more discussion about this.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/cycl...gfYrC&ocid=iehp

Heavy downpours, gale force winds of 150 kph and storm surges up to five metres are predicted to batter the east coast

Evacuations of low-lying areas on the east coast of the North Island are under way, with power outages, fallen trees and roofs lifting off homes possible, according to the MetService, as well as widespread and “significant” flooding across the entire North Island.

A month’s worth of rain is expected to fall in the space of a day on the east coast, with the ground already sodden and covered in up to a metre of mud and debris.

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#1421517 - 13/04/2017 12:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 944
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Round three actually, they had a big low which caused widespread flooding in early march. I was there for it lol.

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
NZ about to get Round 2. This looks like quite a serious event for them and so soon after Debbie.

Can't believe there hasn't been more discussion about this.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/cycl...gfYrC&ocid=iehp

Heavy downpours, gale force winds of 150 kph and storm surges up to five metres are predicted to batter the east coast

Evacuations of low-lying areas on the east coast of the North Island are under way, with power outages, fallen trees and roofs lifting off homes possible, according to the MetService, as well as widespread and “significant” flooding across the entire North Island.

A month’s worth of rain is expected to fall in the space of a day on the east coast, with the ground already sodden and covered in up to a metre of mud and debris.

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#1421524 - 13/04/2017 16:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 650
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Does anyone know how to access observations for New Zealand weather, like daily max temps, and rainfall like the BoM site have?

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#1421530 - 13/04/2017 17:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 223
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast

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#1421531 - 13/04/2017 18:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1323
Loc: toowoomba
This is not the right thread for NZ weather


Edited by petethemoskeet (13/04/2017 18:24)

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#1421537 - 13/04/2017 20:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1145
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Anyone with time for a drive should take a spin from Beenleigh to Beaudesert. I did it today, had to , but stopped twice , amazing tells from the recent flood , incredible water heights through that area.

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#1421542 - 13/04/2017 21:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West

Not sure if this will be the correct place to discuss this, but does anyone have data on TC frequency in the Coral Sea? With this I mean since modern monitoring began. I am aware that there is good research looking at ENSO records/ severe TCs etc via geological records eg. corals/stratigraphy etc.

I've not done an extensive search of the literature but did come across a BOM site with TC Trends but that was for the entire Australian Region:


http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml


Also this may be of interest:

https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7485/full/nature12882.html

This was a paper from Nature in 2014 with the title:

Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550–1,500 years

I've not had time to digest it but others may have read it and would like to comment.

Cheers
_________________________
Science is the only answer

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#1421550 - 14/04/2017 09:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
We had 1.0mm in a short shower around 2:30pm yesterday afternoon.

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#1421566 - 15/04/2017 08:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1874
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all ,Very quiet in here ,Nice clear sunny day here. Have a Happy Easter everyone.
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1421593 - 16/04/2017 06:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1145
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Very quiet , needs a disaster to get back everyone back calling imminent doom as they do. Perfect weather here , best time of the year. Sat with friends around the fire pit last night watching the stars , perfect.

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#1421595 - 16/04/2017 07:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1220
Loc: Toowoomba
Quote:
Very quiet , needs a disaster to get back everyone back calling imminent doom as they do

What on earth do you mean?

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#1421596 - 16/04/2017 08:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1145
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
You know the ones that come out of the woodwork whenever there is some storm on and carry on. Then aren't heard of until the next one.

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#1421597 - 16/04/2017 08:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1220
Loc: Toowoomba
I suppose so. Very quiet for a while to come.

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#1421600 - 16/04/2017 10:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1145
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
There's not too much to say I guess when the weather is beautiful like I it is at the moment. Quite outstanding days at the moment.

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#1421608 - 16/04/2017 14:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: BIG T]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 410
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Originally Posted By: BIG T
There's not too much to say I guess when the weather is beautiful like I it is at the moment. Quite outstanding days at the moment.

Agreed Big T, I enjoy this kind of weather as much as the hectic severe stuff.
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#1421609 - 16/04/2017 14:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3561
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wonderful warm & calm weather. Hope everybody is enjoying their Easter chockies, I am!

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