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#1420693 - 04/04/2017 11:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3301
Loc: Buderim
Its been a reasonably long period of average to above trade winds in the last month and a bit. Surface has shown no response, but total heat content has dropped a little. I'd guess the surface may cool a little in the next few weeks.

Weak westerly anomalies have returned, following an increase of Tropical activity in the SW Pacific, starting with the development of Debbie, and continuing with further tropical depression well out in the Pacific to the NE of NZ. The NW Pacific remains high pressure dominated which is deflecting much of the westerly activity to the south of the equator. Thats a pattern typical of the first stages of an EL nino breakdown and has been evident on and off for much of last year and into this.

I think a lot will depend on what happens with the NW Pacific typhoon season - an early and strong start with a continuation of the current South Pacific pattern would see very big WWBs, but its been very quiet in NW Pacific so far that I can see.

For the last 90 days pressure has been above average for nearly the entire Tropical Pacific. Reduced convection means reduced westerlies, but also increased sunshine and increased heat content accumulation (but increased heat loss for evaporation with increased trades)

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#1420696 - 04/04/2017 12:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

850hPa Zonal Flow Hovmoller using POAMA.
It looks not great for El Niņo.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (04/04/2017 12:27)

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#1420705 - 04/04/2017 13:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3301
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

It looks not great for El Niņo.


While certainly not spectacular, I see a lot more westerly in that forecast than what we have been getting the last two months, during which we've had a steady warming towards el nino thresholds.

CFS is similar, but a stronger and bigger area of westerlies, and weaker area of easterlies. GFS 14 day weather forecast seems to want a massive WWB for the next 2 weeks. ECMWF 10 day weather looks more in line with the CFS and POAMA hovmovers.

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#1421348 - 11/04/2017 13:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Frostie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2006
Posts: 21
Loc: Brisbane / Bayside QLD
Hi Guys,

Thanks for all the great information. Have been lurking for a while but really enjoying this discussion. I was wondering if anyone knows where I can access historical SST data for the nino regions? I know the BOM nino / nina outlook page has data that goes back to 2012 but I am after older data than this. Is this available from the BOM or anywhere else?

Thanks in advance. smile

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#1421357 - 11/04/2017 15:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2339
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Looks to be some cooling in that super hot water area on the south american coastline. I would not be putting too much money on a strongish El Nino just yet. The waters will warm some yet though.

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#1421360 - 11/04/2017 15:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7209
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
7-day anomaly change shows pretty rapid cooling of the warm pool off South America:



But yes it's still warm as a whole:

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#1421411 - 12/04/2017 04:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7209
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks to be a bit of a battle between the warm pool in the west and the re-emergence of the cold pool in the central pac :




I have also read that on rare occasions east to west Ninos can and have occurred in the past so I'm not sure how the eastern warm pool will play a factor this year.

Also, recently updated UKMET has downgraded the potential for a strong Nino event that it had been forecasting for months. Looks much more warm-neutral / weak Nino now. But again, who bloody knows!




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#1421457 - 12/04/2017 15:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3301
Loc: Buderim
A patch of westerly anomaly forecast for the next week or so. Nothing dramatic, but I think it will go a long way towards confirming a weak to moderate el nino. Its quite a long way east, and I see hints of an el nino that is building from east to west, and am intrigued by comments I've read in the past that prior to about 1980 most el nino events built East to West and that we then switched to building west to east. A switch back? A one off event? Or am I looking to hard for an E-W building el nino because that would be something interesting.

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#1421458 - 12/04/2017 15:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4478
Loc: Brisbane
What happened to the "GFS 14 day weather forecast seems to want a massive WWB for the next 2 weeks." that you mentioned on the 4th April. Trades still look pretty solid for me on GFS for at least another week.

With the models you need to consider them the same way as you would a TC forecast. Anything beyond the 3 day window should be given no more than 5-10% credibility.

The big feature of the road to the 2016 El Nino was several occurrences of twin cyclones in both hemispheres generating strong WWB. This has been nowhere to be seen this time round.

I wouldn't even try to predict where ENSO is going to be in 6 months time. ENSO will remain akin uncharted territory for some time to come. We simply don't have enough historical data on it to understand it.

The 82/83, 97/98 and 15/16 events were so very different from each other in their distributions and impacts.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1421467 - 12/04/2017 18:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2339
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke


I wouldn't even try to predict where ENSO is going to be in 6 months time.


pft I will.

Somewhere between -20 and +20. grin

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#1421487 - 12/04/2017 22:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2835
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest JAMSTEC is in and its as ugly as I've ever seen it. Whopping Nino with a raging +IOD over the winter.
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#1421520 - 13/04/2017 14:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7209
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Latest JAMSTEC is in and its as ugly as I've ever seen it. Whopping Nino with a raging +IOD over the winter.


ouch, that looks REALLY bad. Hope it doesn't eventuate.

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#1421525 - 13/04/2017 16:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
From JAMSTEC
"The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niņo event may start in early summer this year and reach its peak in winter. If this happens, it may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niņo-like state after a long spell of La Niņa-like state. Such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998. We need to be prepared well to this possible decadal climate regime shift."

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#1421526 - 13/04/2017 16:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2339
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I am not sure when the "long spell of La Niņa-like state." has been.

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#1421528 - 13/04/2017 16:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2835
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: RC
I am not sure when the "long spell of La Niņa-like state." has been.


What they are referring to is the IPO (interdecadal pacific oscillation) which has in fact been in its cool La Nina like phase since the 1998 Nino. As I understand it the IPO is a Pacific wide oscillation unlike PDO which is more North Pacific focused, could be the reason the PDO is not playing out like many were expecting a few years ago?
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#1421535 - 13/04/2017 19:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: RC
I am not sure when the "long spell of La Niņa-like state." has been.


What they are referring to is the IPO (interdecadal pacific oscillation) which has in fact been in its cool La Nina like phase since the 1998 Nino. As I understand it the IPO is a Pacific wide oscillation unlike PDO which is more North Pacific focused, could be the reason the PDO is not playing out like many were expecting a few years ago?

Yes correct, the JAMSTEC report said decadal, which means in the Pacific either the IPO or the PDO. The PDO is currently in a warm phase, which may change this year, depending on the Aleutian Low and ENSO. But the JAMSTEC is directing the statement at the IPO.

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#1421554 - 14/04/2017 14:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2835
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
This is certainty something to keep an eye on RE +IOD development.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/852524484112371714

Its been hypothesised that severe cyclone impacts on the BOB in the Apr/May time frame can trigger positive events E.g 1994, 2006 etc.
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#1421557 - 14/04/2017 17:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

UKMET model shows a general trend to positive values by most ensemble members, I wouldn't say it's a Positive IOD yet though. But most model guidance shows a Positive IOD.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (14/04/2017 17:29)

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#1421602 - 16/04/2017 12:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Frostie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2006
Posts: 21
Loc: Brisbane / Bayside QLD
Thanks for that link RC. Much appreciated

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#1421615 - 16/04/2017 17:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2835
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest ECMWF seasonal is in and like JAMSTEC it makes for UGLY viewing with Nino and very strong +IOD.
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