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#1421384 - 11/04/2017 19:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1528
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
That'd explain it, thanks MR.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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#1421408 - 11/04/2017 23:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Sorry, sorry, sorry ... if it twas me.

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#1421444 - 12/04/2017 12:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1528
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
All good TB, just couldn't work out what happened.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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#1421476 - 12/04/2017 20:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looks like this Indian Summer should roll on more or less uninterrupted until about the middle of next week, aside from a weak, showery cold front brushing through Southern Victoria on Good Friday.

ACCESS and GFS seem to be putting us on notice for what lies ahead of the current 7-10 day outlooks, with the remnants of the tropical low that's been bringing record cold to the poor folks in Darwin likely to head our way, which may bring useful autumn rainfall to Victoria. smile

GFS also has the next potentially major winter storm for 2017 lined up and ready to roll across Southern Ocean, which may tap into tropical system and make things even more interesting around this time next week! Worth keeping an eye on... wink

Tomorrow I'm off to Corryong for Easter. Looking forward to some delightful autumnal conditions in the Upper Murray and elsewhere across Northern/Northeast Victoria and Southern/Southeast NSW/ACT, with cold, possibly foggy and frosty mornings, and mild to warm, mostly sunny afternoons. Hope it's enough to bring out a kaleidoscope of autumn colours! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (12/04/2017 20:38)

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#1421483 - 12/04/2017 21:43 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2191
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Interesting at moment is windy tv chart temperature is telling me is most of inland of Australia is warm daytime and cool to cold nights in isolated areas.

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#1421606 - 16/04/2017 13:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks to me like a high pressure dominated 7-8 days ahead for Vic. High will be strong enough to deflect all incoming weather from the West down over Portland (SW Vic looking good briefly on Thursday) ...to Tassies west.

Good conditions for DSE burns - so a smokey week ahead for most in SE Vic.

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#1421621 - 16/04/2017 18:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 286
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

On EPS Control, a trough crosses on Thursday night and Friday.



From 24-26 April, a deep cold front crosses the state on EPS Control with heavy precipitation across the state, particularly the Victorian Alps.
Thoughts?


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (16/04/2017 18:46)
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#1421634 - 17/04/2017 09:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....thinking SNOW SH!

...and GFS also agrees somethings looming next week in agreeance with those EC progs above......


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#1421738 - 18/04/2017 23:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 492
Loc: Nundah Qld
Major rain event looking good for NW Vic.
15-30mm with some places more like 30-50mm prefect season opener for that part of the world after a VERY dry last 3 months.

Hope it comes off models looking good for much of West Vic

Unsettled week or so ahead.

Sadly last week of solid warmth to i reckon so get out and enjoy it
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1421861 - 20/04/2017 18:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS hints at 10mm rain for N Gippy tomorrow afternoon, AccR less than 5mm (N Gippy).

Good luck to all Vic regions!

A noteworthy 27.9C recorded on my gauge this arvo, a fantastic (somewhat smokey) day.

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#1422543 - 30/04/2017 17:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Going by the latest GFS, not much "weather" looming in the outlook, a change sweeping past Monday/Tue may provide up to 6mm in Melb's SE suburbs and into W Gippsland, but other than that, perhaps the first general (light ice on cars) frost areas for Thurs/Fri?

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#1423069 - 10/05/2017 18:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Fairly boring outlook for Vic until later next week?

...maybe by then, a large scale cutt-off low spawned way out SW of WA might make its way all the trip across the bight to provide Vic some welcome rain?

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#1423070 - 10/05/2017 19:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
Funny you mention that, I'd actually just posted about it in my local thread (SE QLD/NE NSW).
Here's a copy:


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
At midday, it was 16.7C in Brisbane and max so far since 9am was 17.9C - there's been cooler May max temps before at the previous site but the max so far is the coolest May max since 1980. But if the temp rises beyond that before 9am tomorrow, it'll no longer be the official max.

That wet signal that was appearing for later this month is still evident over a fairly large swath of eastern Australia between 7 and 14 days from now. It currently looks most pronounced in NSW but may affect other regions as well.

Some models are hinting at a big cutoff low moving across the lower east of the continent later next week with an attached big frontal band, lowering pressures down through eastern Australia and a moist NE infeed into it.... so that could be part of it.

The map below shows the percentages of the scenarios from the GFS ensemble going for more than 25mm of rainfall during that period:




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#1423072 - 10/05/2017 19:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1528
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks KK, we could do with some rain.

Fingers crossed.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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#1423073 - 10/05/2017 19:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
You better hope that it doesn't go too far north of VIC if you want decent rain.

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#1423075 - 10/05/2017 19:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1528
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=216&focus=mh

The High off Tas. might not be helpful if it stays like ACCESS indicates Ken, something to follow and look fwd. to in the meantime.

Another strong Low system coming behind this one also, probably fortnight away. Most of Vic done OK with rain lately but East could do with some.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

Top
#1423127 - 11/05/2017 18:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 286
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

EC says 30-40mm for Melbourne.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1423137 - 11/05/2017 22:06 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2191
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks charts above...

The weather pattern brings like spring dry cool day time and cold nights.

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#1423184 - 12/05/2017 18:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great discussion above smile

Looks like the clash of the Titans!:

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#1423191 - 12/05/2017 21:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah great discussion! Sorry I haven't been able to be part of it lately, I've been busy with work but now I can relax and be part of it again for a bit. smile

Looks like this mild, stable late-autumn weather pattern will last right through at least until the middle of next week. Then the weather starts to go downhill, so I'll enjoy it while I can, especially this weekend! smile

Firstly ACCESS and GFS have a frontal system approaching Australia from the west, which is expected to evolve into a cut-off low with possibly widespread soaking heavy rainfall by the latter part of next week; hopefully it won't wander too far north of Victoria. smile

Behind it, a potentially MAJOR winter storm event appears to be on its way, scheduled to strike Victoria in around 10 days' time!

Both systems are worth keeping an eye on... wink

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