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#1421313 - 11/04/2017 03:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
access is pretty ordinary and almost maintains status quo for the
whole weekend, gfs is good and currently shows possibility of
a good sunday night lightshow as the front approaches with
copious amounts of forcing associated with the speed of the
front. the actual dynamics of the system are very similar to
the last one but this time more chance of lightning.
cmc and ec almost as lame duck as access so just a wait and see
which way things will lean.

TH
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#1421410 - 12/04/2017 00:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Good to see the models now starting to bring some of this moisture down from the NW....
Should see it fairly wet in SA from about the 20th onwards...

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#1421435 - 12/04/2017 10:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Both EC and CMC has a good 1-2 inches from about the 19th April now. GFS will catch on eventually.
Looks good for an April break IMO.

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#1421479 - 12/04/2017 21:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I think it (system by 19th) will favour inland areas smile .

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#1421490 - 13/04/2017 04:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i've been watching this since it's inception,
it really is just a typical everyday garden variety regurgitated
dogs breakfast atm and the models are trying to shovel it up
with a pitchfork.
might take a step back and have a peek-a-boo at the bigger pic
atm, basically a large area, nay...huge area, of higher
moisture encompassing pretty much the whole of australia
beginning with a baroclinic infeed associated with a longwave
trough forming over western w.a. and slowly moving east. the
eastern states, especially n.s.w. usually get trounced with
setups like these when they get there,(and talking about nsw
getting trounced EC 10 day for 21st/22nd is totally cooked),
for us it's more dependant on how its guided by ridging, and
any possible polar pulses and just too far out to be precise
on any one particular scenario.
atm the whole of s.a. is looking at some rain in one form or
another, larger falls are patchy and shifting around more than
a duck dodging buckshot, have to wait for models to settle down
more, certainly has good potential to ramp up and be the major
break were looking for but it ain't there yet.

TH
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#1421553 - 14/04/2017 14:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
If there is a system coming that can generate a minimum 15-20 mm widespread through the Adelaide area...it been a while since we've seen "deep south long-wave trough activity" specifically here in SA.


Edited by Seira (14/04/2017 14:29)

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#1421562 - 14/04/2017 20:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Seira
If there is a system coming that can generate a minimum 15-20 mm widespread through the Adelaide area...it been a while since we've seen "deep south long-wave trough activity" specifically here in SA.

A reference to post 1409868 - 27/02/2017 20:47.

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#1421572 - 15/04/2017 12:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yer models still holding nicely, despite the swaying in actual amounts. Still a decent nw infeed and plenty of moisture. Colder air coming up from the sw should hopefully enhance precipitation and then also bring a decent follow up on the weekend as well.
Still thinking 1-2 inches is likely in total.

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#1421588 - 15/04/2017 23:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14865
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Looking a bit more thundery atm on the signature on the first system.

TS cool

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#1421633 - 17/04/2017 09:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Might get more than 1-2 inches in total if latest gfs is correct rofl.....

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#1421639 - 17/04/2017 10:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
hmm. models for the adel hill max out at 15mm

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#1421648 - 17/04/2017 15:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Totals incl follow up system next week....

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#1421655 - 17/04/2017 17:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
This developing trough looks promising for my neck of the woods starting with Wednesday/Thursday projected to see between 1-5 mm on both days then a follow up of 5-10 on Sunday the pre Anzac Day rains just hoping its not raining on Monday next week when i book my car in for rewiring and installation at Autobarn in Mount Gambier

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#1421661 - 17/04/2017 19:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
not looking at too much on sunday RS, moreso on monday.
from what i see you're in a better position than 1-5mm for
the first system on wed/thurs, more like 10-15mm.
see how you go. could very well get the same on monday.
models got a half decent drool factor going atm.
farmers armed to the teeth with high powered tractors and
multi-barrelled seeders poised for battle with the elements
and land. just hope there's a good follow up down the track.


TH
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#1421794 - 19/04/2017 20:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1640
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
Went for a drive up the hill.
Only saw 1 flash over the hills down south and that was it...
oh had some heavyish rain so far 2.1 mm of rain and it's eased off for now,, more coming. Hopefully a storm or two later...for the keen that stays up for most of the night LOL
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Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 44.7 mm
May 39.6 mm
June 14.4 mm
July 73.5 mm
Aug 78.7 mm
Sep 38.8 mm
Oct 19 mm
Nov
Dec
2017 YTD 381 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#1421858 - 20/04/2017 17:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
lets all bag sellicks hill radar,
all-together-now..... ♪♫ C-BAND SUCKS ♫♪.
comparativly speaking of course.
its easy to be spoilt, that's all mt gambier, woomera and
ceduna have got or ever will have.
as of late at least they were a more accurate representation
of rainfall than that piece of over tweaked garbage that most
think the sun shines out of anyway.
so we have to slum it for a while with our old jalopy while
we wait for our new ferrari to rock up, hopefully it will be
worth the wait.
this upgrade event would have been on the cards for many months
possibly years and over a six week period there can never be a
convenient time, if it turned out that way it would be an
absolute fluke of chance and not through good management, this
imo is about as good a time of year as any.
blah,blah,blah,ect,ect and so forth.

TH
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#1421873 - 20/04/2017 19:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7155
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I kind of ignored the fact of radar "issues" because there's nothing I can do about it! I'm thankful the Bureau gave any warning of "maintenance" at all!

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#1421874 - 20/04/2017 20:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1889
Loc: Semaphore SA
I think it's just human nature TH, if people are used to having something all the time they take it for granted and will complain when its taken away. I think the flip side is that we'll appreciate it more when it's back.

Have to remember lots of us grew up on Bucklands Park radar. I've never been without it for so long - grumbling on SA weather forum is pretty fair.

In general though I think the BOM probably cop a bit more flack than they deserve, in soviet russia we wouldn't see such things grin
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#1421875 - 20/04/2017 20:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1889
Loc: Semaphore SA
How about some Bucklands Park Radar history? There's not a heap out there.

AFAIK came online 2006?
Before that they used an old monstrosity at the airport.
That's about as much as I know.

Would love to see some photos or even images of the radar loop. Some of the old timers could probably tell us some interesting things about Adelaide weather monitoring. Got to admit I find it hard to imagine not having the internet - and thus no radar feed apart from what they show on the news.

I remember someone saying when the internet first arrived and hardly anyone had it they'd get one person to sit at the screen and text/call chasers who were out in the field. Now that's teamwork and dedication.

edit:

Found an article smile
https://www.adelaide.edu.au/news/news3561.html
Adelaide site for Australia's most advanced new weather radar
Monday, 31 January 2005

Here's the original reccomendations for adelaide radar site -
Quote:
For optimum performance, the proposed radar will be strategically located:
i)approximately 30 km north of Adelaide City, on flat terrain,
ii)at a maximum distance from the ranges to the east, to minimise obstructions to radar coverage as much as possible, and
iii)to provide coverage of the Mount Lofty Ranges catchments, in particular the Gawler, Torrens and Onkaparinga Rivers, so that flood warning lead times can be maximised.

Secondary considerations for the choice of a radar site include:
i)The distance from residential and built-up areas to:
ii)Minimise visual impact of the radar
iii)Ensure public safety in the near vicinity of the radar
iv)Minimise existing and future man-made obstructions to radar coverage
v)Site security and vandalism threat
vi)Proximity to mains power and communications services
vii)Road access for maintenance purposes

The Bureau's existing radar at Sellicks Hill, some 60 km south of Adelaide city and at more then 300 metres above sea level is suitable for general weather surveillance but is not ideal as a Doppler radar site. The new Doppler radar will complement the coverage provided by the Sellicks Hill radar.



Edited by Chris #3 (20/04/2017 20:16)
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#1421877 - 20/04/2017 21:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...

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