Page 237 of 265 < 1 2 ... 235 236 237 238 239 ... 264 265 >
Topic Options
#1421191 - 09/04/2017 21:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Hi Yep, actually you've picked out all bar 1 occurrence of 3 or more days over 25 in April. The 1955 event is the only time there has been a run >3 days, where all 5 days were in April. The only other 'occurrence' was a 5 days run ended on the 2nd of April in 1920, but obviously just the 2 days in April. 1955, 1981 and 2012 are the only previous examples of at least 3 consec days over 25 where all days were in April until this year. Aside from being a 5 day run, all 5 days in 1955 occurred on or after the 10th.

Finished up with 34.3mm from the event, blew itself out just after lunch, the final fling dropped the temp 4 degrees briefly, but the afternoon recovered to match the early morning 'high'. Nearly as much rain in one weekend as we had in March, if we had reached 45mm, it would have been more than Feb and March combined.

Top
#1421226 - 10/04/2017 09:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
HELLO MR SIMPSON smile Lovely to see your typeface again grin

Yes - that would be a good model - where was my head typing THAT!!! smile Gawd - going bonkers now!! Shut up Dan!!! grin (pre emptive strike) grin

Top
#1421243 - 10/04/2017 11:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
No need DM leaving it well alone. We knew what you meant.

Picture perfect day after a wet weekend.

Top
#1421254 - 10/04/2017 13:17 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Sad but true grin

Have not cracked 10 degrees yet today, will eventually get over 10 but not sure it will feel much warmer. Wind chill pretty solid.

Hobart currently a balmy 16 odd degrees smile

Top
#1421301 - 10/04/2017 21:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 669
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Evening all, firstly a big thanks to Yep and Snowies for the info. I'm sure we all love reading the data and history , really makes for a great forum , rather than the usual daily reports.
So thanks guys smile
Hobart 17 c today , looks like a warm sunny Easter mostly so the campers will be over joyed. Great weather for a early arvo beer and barbie before the night air flows in.
The near Full Moon was just spectacular tonight , an orange globe reflecting right down the Derwents mirror like surface.

Top
#1421324 - 11/04/2017 09:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Some more for MH20,

Since the year 2000 commenced there has only been 2 nights below 0 in Hobart (at Ellersie Rd), one in 2007 and the other in 2013. Both were recorded as -0.4. The number of nights below 0 has always been quite variable but in the last 30 years has trended almost to 0. From the 1930's through to the 1980's, Hobart had as many as 5 nights below 0 each winter, the average from 1930 to 1989 was 1.4 nights per year below 0. Prior to 1930 things were far more variable with cold years and warm years plus there are years missing from the records, but a record 9 nights below 0 were recorded in 1888 and 8 nights below 0 were recorded in 1902.

The 1888 record of 9 nights, is more remarkable as all 9 nights were recorded within a 21 night window, with 3 more nights recorded between 0.0 and 0.6 during the 21 night run. The average minimum temperature during the 21 nights was just 0.8 degrees and included one of the biggest multi day snow storms in recorded Tasmanian history, low level snow fell across the state from July 21st to July 24th, places not normally noted for snow today received at healthy cover. The average maximum temperature was 9.2 for the same 21 day period.

To put it in perspective, Hobart has only had 9 nights below 0 since the start of 1990...



Edited by Snowies (11/04/2017 09:15)

Top
#1421329 - 11/04/2017 09:55 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Brilliant stuff Snowies. smile

I spend a lot of time trying to convince mainlanders that Hobart is not a frigidly cold place. Your stats back that up.

Imagine if one of those epic snow events occurred now - what chaos would it cause!!

Despite the lack of zero or sub zero nights, there are pockets of colder temps scattered around the Hobart area. For several years we lived in Churchill Road Taroona (NOT CHURCHILL AVE), it was a glorified gully running up a steep hill.

In June, 2 years in a row, the road just above our house would ice over for a number of days. It was brilliant white ice and because the sun didn't hit that section (about 50m) as long as clear nights prevailed it would stay frozen all day and night.

Pedestrians had to walk in gardens and on grass - the road was an ice rink. Cars could not get up the hill at all. Those game enough to try going down would have several seconds of skidding down the road and hoping not to hit something.

I suspect there are a number of pockets like that in the Hobart area. smile

Top
#1421331 - 11/04/2017 10:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1869
Loc: Westbury
Yeah, take the August 2015 event, spread it into the north-east, add some more precip and extend it from 1 day to 4 days and you pretty much have it... I suspect the 1888 event was a series of events clustered together.

There are no doubt plenty of micro climates around the City, imagine that street in Taroona in mid 1888... had asphalt, the car and the street existed...

There has been a steady decline in cold nights (<0 and <2 degrees) and cold days (<10) and an increase in warm minimums (>15). Hobart had a record run of 11 nights over 15 degrees in Feb, 2007. The number of days with max temps less than 10 degrees has dropped to ~ 1/3 of what it was a recently as the 1960's. A big year now is 15 days <10, historically 35 days was a big year. 39 days was the record in 1963. 1999 had just 2 days, last year saw 5 days <10.

There has also been declines in events with 1000-500mb thickness <532 and <528 since 1990. There is a weak correlation with the SOI index. Generally winters with a low SOI (-negative values) tend to have a greater number of cold changes. Winter minimum SOI values have been trending up, the exception was 2015 which saw a big increase in cold changes over recent years. Whether this is coincidental I'm not sure. SST anoms have also been rising steadily over the same period. The correlation with ENSO 3.4 anoms is less pronounced.

Top
#1421364 - 11/04/2017 16:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 332
Loc: Hobart
Such a great read Snowies. For a prolonged spell of cold weather we need an intense slow moving high coming in from the south west. Most of those historically cold runs would have had such a set up. Maybe the last winter month that got close to that pattern was June 2007.

Top
#1421368 - 11/04/2017 17:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Nice cool day today.
Had some showers throughout.
Only maxed out at around 13-14c

Top
#1421393 - 11/04/2017 20:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 669
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Thanks once gain Snowies , what great reading . I really hoping that other members of the Mainland forums are dropping in for the informative read as well. You're a legend !
Well nice showery day at the old Richmond course today , the fairways and greens are lush since the irrigation was added.
Also the dam I figure is running at about 3 meters deep by the noise my ball made as it vanished into the murky depths smile


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (11/04/2017 20:54)

Top
#1421405 - 11/04/2017 23:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Well done Snowies!!

A cool showery day here.
202mmfor the ytd.

Top
#1421409 - 11/04/2017 23:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Yep good read Snowies!

Probably unlikely that the record min of -2.8 and record low max of 4.3 will ever get beaten then?

Top
#1421421 - 12/04/2017 09:17 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Never say never WL smile Reckon there's every chance (certainty) we will have ice ages again etc. However - humankind may or may not see it.

When you read the conditions on Mt Wellington in the pre 1930's etc plus any other historical descriptions or reports of earlier events, it shows how much the Tassie weather has changed in the last 100 years or so.

Back early in the 20th century, there are reports of regular ice skating etc on The Mt and other interesting anecdotes.

Actually I think Snowies may have posted links to some of that stuff a few years back?

I suspect that our climates are really always in some sort of state of change - towards or away from ice ages and warm periods etc. The change is so slow that most people don't really see it. However these days we have world wide reporting, well over 100 years of photography (eg showing glaciers etc) and SO MUCH measurement capability that we can measure to poofteenths of a degree grin

So I do think it highly likely that if we RETURN to the days of glaciers running down into Wynyard for example - it may get chilly again smile

Nice to read you report re Richmond H, when I played there it was VERY early days, very rough, often dry with huge cracks in the ground when it was dry smile

I can sympathise completely re the ball. grin

Top
#1421481 - 12/04/2017 21:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 669
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi all, well a chilly start to the morning here in Hobart turning into sunny bang on average 17 c . Seems like a mild night and a top of at least 22 c tomorrow , lets hope it doesn't go any higher. This month is following the warm pattern with the 22 c days returning for a few days run next week. So the Fronts on the charts are trying but are once gain being pushed down by those pesky Highs , thus the stable Indian Summer continues.
Still running 2.4 c over and likely to finish the Month around that mark unless something drastic happens.

Top
#1421495 - 13/04/2017 09:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Models varying a bit for next week. GFS keen for a change around Wed/Thurs while Access has it later.

GFS has a fair bit of wind for Tassie for days after the changes. Could be quite blowy for Autumn.

Top
#1421582 - 15/04/2017 19:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 669
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Well happy Eggster everyone ,
The most boring weather pattern down here , day after day of cloudless sunny days and no wind at all. Hobart still sitting just under the record average set only last year .
The further I look into the rest of the month nothing is going to change , one forecast out to April 30th sees nothing but days in the low 20's .
From Tuesday nothing less than 22 c everyday as far as the BOM forecast goes. shocked
Seems like in recent years March , April and half of May could still be considered Summer weather down here.

Top
#1421643 - 17/04/2017 12:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Yes H20 it's very much like Spring/Summer temps here this week.
I have been enjoying April myself and can notice the lower temps overall though.

Probably will be status quo until sometime next week i think.

Top
#1421660 - 17/04/2017 18:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2052
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Evening all up at Great Lake, and the days have been cool but not cold, same with the nights.
Tonight is getting cold and is clear! Temp is down to 3.8 degrees after another amazing sun set in the West!
The weather is a bit boring ATM but I think thinks should change around Agfest! Most years this is the case!
Very late for the first frost down home, still hasn't arrived yet!

Top
#1421666 - 17/04/2017 20:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 669
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
A touch over 20 here today with a week to come of warmer stuff.
Will be interesting to see where the average sits by the
weekend . The same situation in Vic nearing records as well , nice to have the warmer days and enjoyable warmth. Having said that, it is just the concern for the environment that concerns me. This is not becoming a once in a 10 or 20 event but consecutive years eating away at the cooler months at both ends .
Enough said , me better zip it smile
SF , the Agfest blow mud and rain fest , surely Mother Nature can't steal that fun . Absolutely correct that's a weekend that signals the start of the fun stuff!

Top
Page 237 of 265 < 1 2 ... 235 236 237 238 239 ... 264 265 >


Who's Online
3 registered (SteveB93, Mad Elf #1.5, Bundy), 247 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
stormryder, Taylsy, Willoughby
Forum Stats
29368 Members
32 Forums
23680 Topics
1461911 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image