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#1421670 - 17/04/2017 20:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 661
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Sorry guys , just a clarification of the above post , should have said some parts of Vic and I meant by sum total by the end of this week. I'm not tipping any records by the end of the Month.
Hopefully something will give by then smile

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#1421693 - 18/04/2017 10:26 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1835
Loc: Westbury
Hi all,

We are running about 2 degrees under the 2016 average min and max for April. Averaging 5.8 to 18. Had 4 frosts this month, including mins of 0.3 on Saturday and 1.5 this morning. We are 1 frost ahead of this time last year.

Looks like a very warm late April week ahead.

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#1421696 - 18/04/2017 11:01 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 315
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
A touch over 20 here today with a week to come of warmer stuff.
Will be interesting to see where the average sits by the
weekend . The same situation in Vic nearing records as well , nice to have the warmer days and enjoyable warmth. Having said that, it is just the concern for the environment that concerns me. This is not becoming a once in a 10 or 20 event but consecutive years eating away at the cooler months at both ends .
Enough said , me better zip it smile


I agree with you, it's global and it's not natural and some places are getting hit harder than others. The rapid warming of the sea off the east coast might be responsible for the eastern half of Tasmania getting non stop warm months? The East Australian Current is shifting south and you see these high anomalies down the coast.

April 2016 in Hobart will be hard to beat because it was so exceptional. I have Hobart's average at 20.1 by the end of the week but probably dropping to 19.3 when the month ends.

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#1421697 - 18/04/2017 11:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 875
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

In these times of settled weather, any hint of unusual weather catches our attention.

The following excerpt from the Western District Forecast this morning caught my eye. I dont know if it is just me, but i found the colourful descriptions somewhat amusing. The forecaster who wrote this maybe trying to spice up the forecast? I'm not judging, I simply found amusement in it and thought i would share. smile
http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/west.shtml



Western District Forecast

Forecast issued at 5:40 am EST on Tuesday 18 April 2017.
Weather Situation
A broad high pressure system currently loitering over the Tasman Sea is expected to skulk there for the rest of the week, although a series of fronts and troughs will attempt to evict this moocher. The first front will be shunted to the south of Tasmania today, as the high fortifies a ridge over Bass Strait, which will weaken on Wednesday as a trough assails the Bight. The ridge will repel the trough's advance west of Tasmania, which will then gradually dissolve through Thursday and Friday as further fronts are redirected to the south of the state.

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#1421700 - 18/04/2017 11:39 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 661
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Morning Guys and Girls ,
Thanks Yep smile your calculations are usually spot on , that figure would see is sitting in the 95 % percentile for sure.
Wow Payshense , I know it's boring at the moment but that is someone with too much time on their hands.
Sitting on 17.5 c in the burbs and 70% cloud cover .

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#1421713 - 18/04/2017 15:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2021
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Nice frost here this morning at Great Lake but only 0.5 degrees.

Partly cloudy and no fish landed with the kids.
Maybe next season. Just did a bit of trolling with them.

Snowies I think that the temps for April have been minor frosts just not the -1 and 2 that I have recorded before in Kingston.

Warm at our place any way.

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#1421715 - 18/04/2017 15:25 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5821
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Lol payshense that is a most unusual forecast. poke
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1421719 - 18/04/2017 17:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1835
Loc: Westbury
Yes SF, nothing too extreme so far... just a few nights of 0.

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#1421733 - 18/04/2017 20:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 661
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart topped out at 24 c , a couple over the forecast.
Being that result today we may be cooking by Friday . Next Mon and Tues looking to cool down but still no 17 c day on the horizon. (:
Some late in the season warmth in the News.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/april-sun-treating-sa-tas-vic-and-nsw-so-right/526294

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#1421747 - 19/04/2017 10:25 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9501
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hi all.

Good to be reading all your posts smile

That forecast was an absolute ripper!!!! Love it. smile

Looks like the High pressure systems have decided to make a stand - and squash the hell out of any uppity cold fronts at the moment.

When I was looking last week - the models were fairly keen on something windy and cold this week. Mr H Pressure said - not having any of that!!!

So more boring warm weather - some days quite warm indeed.

All pretty much same same up here too.

Snowies showing off with his zeroes, clear still air, lack of cloud obviously more likely up there than further south & west.

If the high stays put a while - you guys will have more northerly quadrant winds and indeed Hobart may be a degree or two higher than here because we are getting more E or NE winds that are not dragging over the warm interior so much.

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#1421754 - 19/04/2017 12:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 661
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Afternoon all , waking up this morning and looking out the window and have to remind myself it's late April !
Just more sunny skies and heating up ( 20.3 c ) at the moment with smell of smoke spoiling the air .
Nearly everyone enjoying the extra Summer including the cat and bikini lady down the street.

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#1421770 - 19/04/2017 16:46 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 661
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Yet another boring as bat poo 24 c plus day in Hobart . Same again tomorrow just hotter . eek
Really drying up now , we better get some Winter rains or this isn't going to end to well by Spring.

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#1421801 - 19/04/2017 21:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 58
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Next week looks like a decent cool change.
18 on Sun, Mon and Tuesday
14,15 and 16 for the rest of the week.
Decent chance of snow i would of thought mid week.


Edited by Winter_lover (19/04/2017 21:11)

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#1421822 - 20/04/2017 08:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9501
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes WL - next week looks quite promising now with reasonable agreement across the models. Don't reckon you'll find many 20+ days after this one. smile

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#1421847 - 20/04/2017 14:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5821
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Wow nudging 20C at Liawenee.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1421879 - 20/04/2017 22:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: DaveM]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 661
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Yes WL - next week looks quite promising now with reasonable agreement across the models. Don't reckon you'll find many 20+ days after this one. smile


Hi Dave , no disrespect smile But I'll bet a carton that we will see plenty more of the same ? Just joking mate hope you are right and I'm wrong !
Next week the BOM have already up the anti on Mon and Tues . Plenty more of this to come me thinks as the Highs just keep coming . Next Wed Synoptic 22.00 hrs shows another huge High rolling towards us once again , any cool/average days will be shortly lived.
Lets see what max's May can blow away .
News article on here WZ , latest warmth in 50 years down here .
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/late-season-warmth-in-tasmania/526305


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (20/04/2017 22:25)

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#1421892 - 21/04/2017 09:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9501
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes MH - depends mainly where the highs plonk themselves, that is the wild card. If they sit more easterly and you get NW winds, then warmer days than normal for sure. Dragging warmth down from Central north island.

The calendar though tells me it's nearly May and 20 degree days get pretty thin. You have certainly had a warm Autumn though, got you back for the cooler weather in some of your Summer. smile

Up north - Snowies has more clear nights than you do down south - that cools the nights off much more. Hobart often has a cloud blanket at night - certainly more so than further north.

High pressure systems though tend to diminish cloud levels and leave clearer nights.

Still as always - it will do what it wants to and we can only watch. Sometimes it's fun, other times it's annoying grin

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#1421895 - 21/04/2017 10:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1835
Loc: Westbury
Hobart has had 30 days over 20 degrees in the last 15 May's (since 2002). 3 Mays saw 5 days over 20 (2002, 2007 and 2013). May 2015 was the last time 0 days over 20 was recorded, prior to that the May's of 2008 and 2009 failed to reach 20.

The long term average is 1.4 days over 20.

In other words, the probability of 20 degree days after mid next week is really starting to decline.

A 20 degree day in May is a full 5.5 degrees above the long term May average, the equivalent of a 27 degree day in Jan/Feb.

Yesterday was the warmest day in 3 weeks at 24.4. Last night was cool and clear at 5.7. A lot of smoke haze as farmers burn off in the cooler autumn weather. Trees are out in full colour now, which makes for a nice landscape in the soft light, misty early mornings.

Could see a smattering of snow to around 500-600m in the far south Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Followed by a cold day or two and probably the first serious frosts.

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#1421910 - 21/04/2017 13:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 58
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Yep i did a bit of looking at the data as well.
Seems like 5 days is the most we have had in May in the last 16 Autumns.

20 degree plus days in May from 2000 to 2016

2000 - 3 days (highest was 21.9)
2001 - 0 days
2002 - 5 days (highest was 23.1)
2003 - 2 days (highest was 20.2)
2004 - 0 days
2005 - 2 days (highest was 23.2)
2006 - 0 days
2007 - 5 days (highest was 20.9)
2008 - 0 days
2009 - 0 days
2010 - 4 days (highest was 22.8)
2011 - 2 days (highest was 22)
2012 - 1 day (highest was 20.4)
2013 - 5 days (highest was 22.4)
2014 - 2 days (highest was 23.9)
2015 - 0 days
2016 - 2 days (highest was 21.5)

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#1421913 - 21/04/2017 14:43 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 58
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
While i was in a stats mood i decided to check out this as well

No. of days with Max temps under 10 degrees from 2000 to 2016

2000

March - 0
April - 0
May - 2 (lowest was 8.8)
June - 0
July - 2 (lowest was 6.3)
August - 3 (lowest was 7.9)

2001

March - 0
April - 0
May - 2 (lowest was 9.7)
June - 3 (lowest was 9.2)
July - 0
August - 5 (lowest was 7.4)

2002

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 2 (lowest was 9.1)
July - 2 (lowest was 8.9)
August - 2 (lowest was 8.9)

2003

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 2 (lowest was 8.3)
July - 4 (lowest was 8.3)
August - 5 (lowest was 8.4)

2004

March - 0
April - 0
May - 1 (lowest was 9.9)
June - 4 (lowest was 8.8)
July - 9 (lowest was 7.6)
August - 6 (lowest was 5.9)
September - 1 (lowest was 9.8)
October - 1 (lowest was 9.6)

2005

March - 0
April - 0
May - 1 (lowest was 9.6)
June - 2 (lowest was 9.0)
July - 3 (lowest was 8.6)
August - 4 (lowest was 6.4)
September - 1 (lowest was 9.3)

2006

March - 0
April - 0
May - 3 (lowest was 9.1)
June - 6 (lowest was 9.2)
July - 6 (lowest was 8.6)
August - 0

2007

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 8 (lowest was 7.4)
July - 8 (lowest was 8.7)
August - 3 (lowest was 7.9)
September - 1 (lowest was 9.0)

2008

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 0
July - 2 (lowest was 8.0)
August - 1 (lowest was 9.5)

2009

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 5 (lowest was 8.6)
July - 2 (lowest was 8.6)
August - 2 (lowest was 8.7)

2010

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 1 (lowest was 9.4)
July - 0
August - 3 (lowest was 9.4)

2011

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 3 (lowest was 9.0)
July - 6 (lowest was 7.5)
August - 3 (lowest was 9.2)

2012

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 4 (lowest was 8.0)
July - 1 (lowest was 9.2)
August - 2 (lowest was 9.0)

2013

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 4 (lowest was 7.9)
July - 1 (lowest was 7.9)
August - 1 (lowest was 9.8)

2014

March - 0
April - 0
May - 1 (lowest was 9.2)
June 2 (lowest was 9.0)
July - 4 (lowest was 7.8)
August - 3 (lowest was 7.3)

2015

March - 0
April - 0
May - 0
June - 4 (lowest was 8.7)
July - 6 (lowest was 8.1)
August - 6 (lowest was 7.2)

2016

March - 0
April - 0
May - 1 (lowest was 9.8)
June 1 (lowest was 9.6)
July - 3 (lowest was 7.7)
August - 0



Edited by Winter_lover (21/04/2017 14:43)

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