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#1421616 - 16/04/2017 17:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Yes it is ugly on the models, but yet again the atmosphere is not in El Niño mode or even Warm Neutral mode. +IOD was always likely to happen off the back of a strong -IOD last year and an El Niño centered Forecast.
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#1421624 - 16/04/2017 20:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1892
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
It is interesting how there is not even any consensus on what temperature anomaly Nino 3.4 even is at the moment.

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#1421627 - 16/04/2017 22:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

The polar vortex is becoming fairly strong with minimum temperatures of -70 degrees Celsius in the next 10 days. This may have contributed to the early season snow.



The QBO is still westerly and is forecast to weaken a little. If you didn't know, the QBO is the measure of the jet above the equator at about 30mb.

You can see the SAO changing and the rest of the stratosphere for winter. Perhaps a bit early IMO...


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (16/04/2017 22:18)
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#1421636 - 17/04/2017 10:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6331
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
It certainly feels like an early start to Winter in Gippsland. The camilia's are out!

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#1421695 - 18/04/2017 10:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1590
Here we go it doesn't look good to me westerlies spreading across the Pacific, this will be the kick that it needs for El Nino to really ramp up.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif


Edited by _Johnno_ (18/04/2017 10:42)
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#1421704 - 18/04/2017 12:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 349
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Here we go it doesn't look good to me westerlies spreading across the Pacific, this will be the kick that it needs for El Nino to really ramp up.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif

I've been watching it develop and strengthen on this one - looks like a very decent burst:

http://monitor.cicsnc.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/cfs/uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png
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#1421707 - 18/04/2017 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6212
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EPS isn't anywhere near as strong though, although the signature is there:


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#1421730 - 18/04/2017 18:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1892
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
According to http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume


At this point in time there is only roughly a 50% chance of El Nino.

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#1421737 - 18/04/2017 22:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6212
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Subsurface SST anomalies since the beginning of 2014:


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#1421792 - 19/04/2017 20:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5247
Loc: Not tellin!
Looks to be a spreading and increasing cool SSTs under a pretty wide area there. Might be a spanner into the works for those cheering for Elnino......

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#1421890 - 21/04/2017 05:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6212
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
There is still time for that warm pool to expand and extend east though. In fact, EC has another WWB pushing through NE PNG late in about 9 days time. Am definitely a little worried now.

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#1421908 - 21/04/2017 13:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4243
Loc: Brisbane
I'd be more worried about it when it actually happened. I've seen so many WWB's forecast that never eventuate (and vice versa with strengthening trades) that I consider most of those forecasts are little better than a coin toss.

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#1421912 - 21/04/2017 14:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17164
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Locke
I'd be more worried about it when it actually happened. I've seen so many WWB's forecast that never eventuate (and vice versa with strengthening trades) that I consider most of those forecasts are little better than a coin toss.


Yep, me too.
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#1421919 - 21/04/2017 16:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6212
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well the one occurring right now was picked by the models around a week ago so there's that. However it does appear to be short-lived.

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#1421923 - 21/04/2017 17:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Ronfishes Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3134
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Locke
I'd be more worried about it when it actually happened. I've seen so many WWB's forecast that never eventuate (and vice versa with strengthening trades) that I consider most of those forecasts are little better than a coin toss.


Yep, me too.


Certainly in this day and age...
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#1421925 - 21/04/2017 18:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Ronfishes]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17164
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Ronfishes
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Locke
I'd be more worried about it when it actually happened. I've seen so many WWB's forecast that never eventuate (and vice versa with strengthening trades) that I consider most of those forecasts are little better than a coin toss.


Yep, me too.


Certainly in this day and age...


Very difficult to predict more than a few days out RF due to so many variables. Occasionally they get it right but more often than not they don't .The frequency of accurate forecasting increases "after" a Nino has actually developed when WWB's are pretty much a given but not so great when the event is a maybe.
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#1422036 - 24/04/2017 10:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1892
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
An April 20'th update

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Up to a 70% chance of El Nino now.

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#1422051 - 24/04/2017 13:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
70? crikey! I'd be dropping it right down.

TS cool

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#1422057 - 24/04/2017 15:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2478
Loc: Buderim
Given the current state of the Pacific the current CFS forecast of a substantial and long lived WWB starting in the next day or three would seem to pretty much nail this as at least a moderate el nino. However the CFS ENSO forecast is still pretty wishy washy about whether it will be el nino or just warm neutral.

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#1422059 - 24/04/2017 15:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

POAMA and CFS are clearly not on par.
A strong WWB on CFS, compared to one on POAMA to the Far West Pacific and Eastern Pacific.

removed image - mod



Edited by Mick10 (Yesterday at 19:29)
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