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#1422008 - 23/04/2017 18:11 VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day guys! Bula vinaka. smile

New thread for the final event for April 2017, so here we go.

The models and charts seem to be aligning for what's shaping up to be a potentially major winter storm event, so here go!

The latest satellite images have a trough developing over Southern Australia. A large high pressure ridge extending off the Indian Ocean to the nation's southwest will break down, clearing the way for an enormous, deepening low pressure system and a mighty cold front swinging northbound across the Southern Ocean from Antarctica!

As the trough dips into Southeastern Australia ahead of the impending storm, a separate high pressure area in the South Pacific will allow winds to swing around into a strengthening, mild to warm northerly airflow across Victoria. Then the main storm system and polar blast burst upon us on late on Tuesday and Wednesday, unleashing a bone-chilling, wintry cold outbreak, with a couple of further fronts brushing past in the days afterwards as the Indian Ocean high pressure ridge rebuilds.

For tomorrow:

Morning fog patches, then mild to warm with moderate northerly winds inland; easterly winds near the coastal area. Cloud increasing with scattered showers and possible late thunderstorms developing across the Western districts then spreading eastwards, tending to area of rain late in the day in the Southwest. Forecast highs of 22C for Melbourne and 24C for Mildura.

For Tuesday (ANZAC Day):

Cool to mild with moderate to fresh west/northwest winds. Rain and thunderstorms clearing eastwards with showers to follow. Forecast highs of 19C for Melbourne and 21C for Mildura.

For Wednesday:

Cold and mostly cloudy with strong, gusy southwesterly winds. Showers and thunderstorms with local hail affecting most districts, although only isolated showers expected in the Northwest. Snowfalls down to 800m. Forecast highs of 14C for Melbourne and 15C for Mildura.

For Thursday:

Scattered showers along and south of the Great Dividing Range, with isolated showers spilling into the north; dry over the Northern Plains. Light snowfalls in the Alpine region. Cold and mostly cloudy with moderate southwesterly winds. Forecast highs of 15C for Melbourne and 17C.

GFS has hinted at rainfall totals of up to 25-50mm for Melbourne's southeast for this event; no doubt the "bay effect" will be in full operation, especially on Wednesday! grin

ACCESS and GFS also have a possible intense ECL blowing up on Thursday/Friday once this storm enters the Tasman Sea and encounters the warm East Australian Current, which could make things interesting for you guys out in Gippsland and possibly the Northeast! smile

Have a good one guys!

Aussiestormfreak

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#1422010 - 23/04/2017 18:51 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
WATL forecasts re Nth Gippsland as per-

"Tue 25 Apr - Forecast Rain Min12C Max20C Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 80%

Wed 26 Apr - Forecast Showers Min7C Max14C Possible rainfall: 2 to 8mm Chance of any rain: 90% "

Thu 27 Apr - Forecast Showers Min5C Max15CPossible rainfall: 0 to 1mmChance of any rain: 50%

Looking at ACCESs, we might get 1/2", be nice to get that plus some snow also with the cold air Wed/Thur.

Waiting for that ECL to spin us a bit more rain asf grin

In the meantime picture perfect April weather with some humid pre midday build up that cools and doesn't come to anything that makes noise/sparks.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1422011 - 23/04/2017 19:28 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread asf 😀

What a system she is lining up to be!!
Snow to 800m for this time of year is
Very low?? This is the type is system
That could deliver 20-30mm in the
Sustained sw airflow😀😀and require
Every bit of that hopefully lol

Could see some sleet as well if that snow line
Gets down to that 800m level or a little lower.
Baw Baw should get a nice ground cooler

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#1422014 - 23/04/2017 19:44 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
800m???
I was more thinking 1200m.
Maybe 800m for Tassie though.
Wouldn't be surprised if Baw Baw and Lake Mountain had 20cm+, thanks to that S-SW flow


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (23/04/2017 19:44)
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#1422015 - 23/04/2017 19:58 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah I know snowy, it says 800m
On the BoM west and south gippy forecast
For Wednesday 👍 Would be suprised
If it stays at that level tho??

Yeah I'm thinking Baw Baw will receive
A nice little dump as well

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#1422022 - 23/04/2017 23:15 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Seems about right- GFS has 850/700mb temps at about -3/-13 degrees C centred in the Gippsland for Wed night and Thu morning which I believe would be cold enough for snow down to 800m if everything lines up. I reckon there's a solid 12 hours if not more where there is a chance of snow down to that level.


Edited by Wave Rider (23/04/2017 23:19)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1422027 - 24/04/2017 08:49 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
It's down to 1000m on EC.
1100-1200m on GFS and AXS-R.
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#1422028 - 24/04/2017 09:06 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.5C, currently around 15C and mostly cloudy. Also very wet, with surprisingly heavy showers rolling through the Melbourne area from the northwest. Collected 1mm of rain so far. smile

The main trough is still back over South Australia though. Going to be an interesting day! smile

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#1422030 - 24/04/2017 09:38 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
ACCESS this morning, not a common occurrence to see the model with 536 poised over such a large lump of Vic -


_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1422035 - 24/04/2017 10:38 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
samboz, this provides nicer viewing of ACCESS-R than the BOM's site.
http://weather.graphics/bom/access_r.php



Edited by Snowy Hibbo (24/04/2017 10:39)
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#1422039 - 24/04/2017 11:46 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Excellent pics SH, will have to learn how to drive it first to get anywhere near the info available there.

Can you zoom into areas as small as say 1/4 of the area of Vic?

Thanks grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1422045 - 24/04/2017 12:42 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Nice charts Samboz and SH. Pity I still don't fully understand how to read them, but I'm learning lol. smile

Warming up here in Belgrave, around 25C at the last check. It felt very humid earlier, but the northerly breeze is providing some relief.

I'll enjoy the sunshine while I can! The trough is still back over South Australia, with showers/rain and the odd storm developing along/ahead of it. Cloud is increasing on satellite over Victoria's Western Plains ahead of the trough and should move over Melbourne in coming hours. Hoping for some storm action tonight! smile

The cold front is on its way too! It should enter the Bight over the next 24 hours, and then burst upon Victoria late-tomorrow! ACCESS and GFS still have the ECL scenario unfolding by Wednesday/Thursday as earlier predicted. smile

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#1422053 - 24/04/2017 14:41 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
Excellent pics SH, will have to learn how to drive it first to get anywhere near the info available there.

Can you zoom into areas as small as say 1/4 of the area of Vic?

Thanks grin


You can zoom this far in. There's also other charts available such as the German ICON model http://weather.graphics/icon/icon13.php. There's much more paid content too.
_________________________
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#1422060 - 24/04/2017 16:01 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 26.0C here in Belgrave today, lovely! smile

Cloud has rolled over as anticipated, but there are still sunny breaks; it sure felt quite hot and humid in the sun while out walking over the past hour, although there's a light breeze to cool things down a bit. smile

Currently around 24C. I'll stay outside as long as possible, it looks kinda unstable and convective about the place, and getting kinda dark and ominous towards the west! Storms are flaring on radar between Colac and Ararat, hope they can make it past Geelong and Ballarat into Melbourne. smile

Edit: forgot to mention that we had another heavy shower roll through our neck of the woods just after 9am, not enough to dump any further measurable rainfall though but ah well. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (24/04/2017 16:05)

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#1422061 - 24/04/2017 16:02 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
North Central and
North East Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:02 am Monday, 24 April 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:

A band of rain with possible thunderstorms is forecast to move across the State later today and during Tuesday morning, with the heaviest falls expected for the State's northeast. Rain is expected to ease to showers later on Tuesday morning as the cloud band contracts eastward and clears.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the North East district and adjacent parts of the North Central district, particularly about elevated areas.
Rain is forecast in the North Central district from late Monday night, extending to the North East early on Tuesday morning. Rain should start to ease from the west later on Tuesday morning, clearing the State in the afternoon. 24-hour totals of 20-40mm are forecast with peak totals of 60mm, especially about the ranges and near thunderstorms.

Locations which may be affected include Corryong, Bright, Mansfield, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Mt Buller.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Don't walk, ride or drive through flood water;
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains;
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks;
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Monday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1422065 - 24/04/2017 16:43 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV65756
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of the
Central and
South West Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:29 pm Monday, 24 April 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Colac, Ararat and Ballarat.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 7:30 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1422066 - 24/04/2017 16:54 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Just had very heavy rain and skies very dark every where stable.

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#1422072 - 24/04/2017 18:04 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6104
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Couple of rumbles but just some light anvil rain
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#1422073 - 24/04/2017 18:05 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Forcefield active! It is diverting it southward today!
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1422074 - 24/04/2017 18:25 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
malteaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/01/2007
Posts: 81
Loc: Torquay and Geelong
Picture this, the stormy dark skies are a rumbling and the huge bats are chasing their prey, silhouetted against the lighting filled clouds. Sureal look, felt I was in Transylvania. Now it is pumping down here and now here comes the hail. OMG just now. TV gone

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