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#1422076 - 24/04/2017 18:32 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6134
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Quite a bit of lightning and thunder here for 15 mins or so, very little rain - nice viewing.
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#1422078 - 24/04/2017 18:46 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1017
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow impressive storm line out west and once
Again some good falls of rain with it 😀

Please reach Gippsland u good thing!!

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#1422080 - 24/04/2017 18:55 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Many thanks SH, lot of learning to be done. Will explore later smile

Looking at ACCESS, this corner will be lucky to see 10mm, quite central Vic & N/E'centric.

To quote a well known critic commentator - "Forcefield active!" ... grin


Edited by samboz (24/04/2017 19:01)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1422086 - 24/04/2017 20:01 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
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Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Interesting Doppler down around Lara atm
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#1422092 - 24/04/2017 21:43 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
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Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
No thunder but really coming down right now.
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#1422107 - 25/04/2017 08:52 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1017
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Just checked the Guage and a lovely
13mm overnight to kick start this event off

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#1422109 - 25/04/2017 09:14 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Handy dooga', barely 1.5mm here o'night.

Light steady rain, sky clearing a little, no wind.

Some good 40mm'ish falls, ie Hamilton, Geelong.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1422111 - 25/04/2017 09:50 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Trying to decipher WINDYTV model asf, think it indicates that rain will not be coming from the ECL on this occasion, comments very welcome re this subject pls.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1422112 - 25/04/2017 10:33 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.


ACCESS-R suggests weak PWAT influence over Far East Gippsland on Wednesday (possible light-moderate precipitation in region from the developing low in the Western Tasman Sea)

The low should go under RI in the Tasman, but will most likely be too far away from the Australian Eastern Seaboard to be considered an ECL.


All models are consistent with a SE track towards the Far South of NZ, with most models suggesting the Tasman Low will go back into Antarctic.

In summary, it won't be an ECL in technical terms, but some places along the coast may get a bit windy. Not a lot of rain in the cold front though. The correct term for this would be a Tasman Low IMO.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (25/04/2017 10:33)
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#1422114 - 25/04/2017 11:03 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks SH, does PWAT reflect measured rainfall at the gauge, or is there an rough % of PWAT that is measured at the gauge depending on other atmospheric conditions?

WINDYTV certainly had a good flow back down S SH, one of the reasons I thought the Low might not contribute much on this occasion now we are closer to it all happening!

Re RI - (sunspot related) yep, right grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1422116 - 25/04/2017 11:19 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
Thanks SH, does PWAT reflect measured rainfall at the gauge, or is there an rough % of PWAT that is measured at the gauge depending on other atmospheric conditions?

WINDYTV certainly had a good flow back down S SH, one of the reasons I thought the Low might not contribute much on this occasion now we are closer to it all happening!

Re RI - (sunspot related) yep, right grin

PWAT is Precipitable Water Anomaly. Explanation from NOAA: "Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb"

are you looking at EC or GFS on windytv? I agree that it is a nice S flow, should give some nice snow to Baw Baw.

RI = Rapid Intensification (Going from 1000mb-980mb as an example) Not sunspot related the way I know it.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (25/04/2017 11:21)
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#1422118 - 25/04/2017 11:25 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victorians had started one month early wet season in April 2017 over average rainfall compare to April 2016 was under average and May 2016 was 90mm over average.

I had another 20mm overnight bring well over average of 110mm.

This winter likely muddy winter.

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#1422122 - 25/04/2017 12:21 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6134
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
More thunder from 1015 to 1115 or so last night, just the odd nice rumble. Another great rain event. 30.9mm so over 150mm for the month of April.

Samboz, a high pwat can be fun (or not) if it coincides with slack upper air patterns resulting in slow moving systems or cells.


Edited by Ruckle (25/04/2017 12:22)
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#1422132 - 25/04/2017 14:03 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 15.1C, still hovering around 14-15C atm thanks to this humidity and thick foggy cloudcover! But at least it's not windy, so it doesn't feel cold. crazy

Terrific event so far, but got off to a sluggish start. The severe storms I mentioned in my last posts never made it here. Same story for a few surprise heavy showers and thunderstorms that sprung up around 5pmish at the north end of Port Phillip and near the City before rolling southeastwards towards Wilsons Promontory. Looked dark and threatening in that direction, but didn't even hear any thunder or see any lightning. frown

But it was a very mild evening, around 18C with little wind, perfect for spending outside until just before the first teasing showers arrived after 8pm. smile

The main rainband and associated embedded heavy shower and thunderstorm activity FINALLY moved in from the northwest just before 11pm, and lasted until just before 9am this morning! smile

I slept through most of it, but I was wide awake between 3:30am and 5:30am. Near-constant moderate rain with quite a few heavier downpours tossed in, and it was windy at times too! No thunder, lightning or hail though but ah well. smile

Collected 31.6mm in the 24 hours to 9am, with the peak rainfall rate (at 9am when I woke up again) being 8.9mm/hr; no doubt it was much heavier than that at times during the night.

The main stormy rainband has cleared off now, but we've had further showers (sometimes drizzly, other times heavy) come through in its wake. Another 5.3mm since 9am. smile

My April 2017 total has now gone from 35.8mm to 72.7mm, thanks to this one event. Very nice! smile

Still raining atm, but the majority of showers should clear soon. smile

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#1422135 - 25/04/2017 14:35 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 519
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Another awesome rain event for much of the state almost everywhere has had 10-30mm, with many in the 30-50mm and a few in the 50-80mm range

Cold weather to come and those wramish days are almost over till Spring.

Big blast tomorrow

Great month of rain for much of the state enjoy.
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#1422145 - 25/04/2017 15:26 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Re the ECL discussion SH, looking at EC where a strong S/E is coming off Mallacoota and heading south, basically taking any coriolis effect away from the mainland.

Looking at - https://www.windytv.com/?-36.633,151.260,5

Read wrong glossary re RI, will work on that... smile

Re PWAT, OK get that, it is only a measure of airborne water vapour.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1422147 - 25/04/2017 15:31 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: samboz
Re the ECL discussion SH, looking at EC where a strong S/E is coming off Mallacoota and heading south, basically taking any coriolis effect away from the mainland.


Lots of energy happening with this southbound air, lightning kicking off on the convergnce line -

http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=-38.1156;x=153.8886;z=5;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;


Edited by samboz (25/04/2017 15:33)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1422149 - 25/04/2017 15:35 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
Re the ECL discussion SH, looking at EC where a strong S/E is coming off Mallacoota and heading south, basically taking any coriolis effect away from the mainland.


Okay that's all cool - I get my EC data from a backdoor. I prefer 850mb wind charts which apply higher up, which go further inland. But the bottom line is like you said the ECL is away from the mainland.
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#1422159 - 25/04/2017 16:16 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the Central, East Gippsland, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland, Wimmera and parts of the Mallee Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:10 pm Tuesday, 25 April 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:

A strong cold front is forecast to affect Victoria, reaching the west coast late Tuesday night then rapidly crossing the remainder of the State to the far North East late on Wednesday morning. West to northwesterly winds will shift colder southwesterly behind the front, becoming strong and squally near the coast. Isolated thunderstorms are a risk near the front, continuing in the south behind the front.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60-70 km/h with peak gusts of around
100 km/h are possible near thunderstorms. Squalls of 70-80 km/h are a risk for the South West, Central and West and South Gippsland districts near coastal areas in southerly winds, extending to coastal East Gippsland during the afternoon. Winds will gradually ease from the west through Wednesday afternoon.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Tuesday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217.
The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1422162 - 25/04/2017 16:36 Re: VIC - Intense Wintry Cold Front, Trough & Low - Cold, Wet, Windy & Stormy + Possible Low-Level Snow/Sleet, ECL(?) - April 24-30 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 15.9C here in Belgrave today, just over 10C cooler than yesterday! Again, nice that it wasn't windy so I barely noticed how cold it was. smile

Still around 15C atm. The sky's grown a bit lighter now that most of the showers have cleared off.

Tomorrow it's a different story, with forecast highs of only 13-15C for the Melbourne metropolitan area!

The cold front is now moving into position to strike Victoria! Already a few precursor showers developing ahead of it over the Southwest and into SE South Australia.

Expect winds and clouds to increase with showers and thunderstorms developing over the west tonight, then spread eastwards tomorrow with a vigorous, unstable cold blast! Local hail, squalls, and snowfalls to 900m likely. Interesting day ahead, with the Dandenong Ranges area anticipating around another 5-20mm of rain, in large part due to the "bay effect". smile

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