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#1422126 - 25/04/2017 12:37 Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
They've labeled it so might as well put it up. This is probably all there'll be on it


Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 7:40 am CST on Tuesday 25 April 2017 for the period until midnight CST Thursday 27 April 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1008 hPa, was located just north of the Northern Region, over the central Arafura Sea near 7.9S 133.1E, about 460 km north of Maningrida at 6:30am CST on 25 April 2017 and was moving towards the west at 9 km/h.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving west to southwest across the Arafura Sea, well north of the Northern Territory. The low may slowly develop during the coming days, with a risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Thursday.

Even if the low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, winds over the southern Arafura Sea and about the northwest coast of the Northern Territory are expected to increase from late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday: Low.
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.

From Friday, the low is forecast to move further west through the Timor or Banda Seas, reducing the risk of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region.










Edited by Mick10 (27/04/2017 18:51)

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#1422130 - 25/04/2017 13:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3228
Loc: Broome

Looks like its going to be slow moving to the West in the next couple of days and maybe fighting a trough for its moisture supply.
Fairly disorganised as far as convection goes atm though.

Depending how West it goes will determine strength as well according to the outlook going into Friday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422241 - 26/04/2017 12:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3228
Loc: Broome


Models seem a bit more interested in the system developing into a TC 1 or 2 strength within the next couple of days. Suggesting rapid intensification within the next 48 hours.

System expected to move to the south west as it tracks across the Timor Sea into an area with a decreasing wind shear and favourable outflow potential.

In the long term the models suggest that it will be in an area of strong shear and dry air wrapping into its LLC so dying fairly rapidly off the West Kimberley coast.

But interesting for the next few days at least.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422307 - 26/04/2017 19:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
BOM still only gives a moderate chance of development but JTWC seems more confident, giving it a high chance.

WTXS21 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 131.8E TO 10.6S 126.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRE AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270300Z.//
NNNN

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#1422351 - 27/04/2017 12:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOM has jumped on it now. Expected to be TC later tonight. I wonder just how strong this one can get before weakening. Another Severe TC perhaps. Wait and see.

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#1422353 - 27/04/2017 12:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC Blurb. Rapid development. BANG. Here it goes. What name will this one be. Will look it up.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261239Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS SHOWED THE EASTERN HALF OF A DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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#1422354 - 27/04/2017 12:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think we are still on TC Frances if it forms. She failed to get named last time that name came up a few weeks ago.
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#1422355 - 27/04/2017 12:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Broome, WA
Crossing at Thangoo as a cat 4 Popeye...😀

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#1422360 - 27/04/2017 14:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I certainly think if it gets fully going and bombs away then it may take longer to wind itself down. The models and BOM seem to quickly destroy it so it will eventually encounter some shear and dry air I guess. Be interesting to see what happens. A little further South of its intended track puts the Nth Kimberley under the firing line if only just higher rainfall. Something to watch late in the season.
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#1422361 - 27/04/2017 14:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
8 day rainfall charts seems to show a bit of a soft on for the West Kimberley. I wonder if she gets excited out there it may lift its game. lol

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#1422364 - 27/04/2017 14:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
The low is in an area of 10-15 kts VWS and the predicted track is taking it into lower VWS. The ridge to the south is pushing a lot of dry air up this way and this is likely to have a significant effect on the system. We've been under heavy cloud cover here but there's only been a very light sprinkle of rain near the coast and a bit more over the Tiwis. Had been hoping for a good final burst of rain before the dry sets in but that's only happening off the coast.

Incidentally, tomorrow 11 years ago TC Monica finally weakened into a tropical low after an energetic whirl across the top of Australia.

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#1422374 - 27/04/2017 16:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3228
Loc: Broome

Can see in this water vapour pic the outflow to the south east and not much available moisture in the track.
Dry air from ridge hampering any moisture wandering southwards.

Tightening up nicely in the next couple of days as it peaks out as a TC Cat 2.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422379 - 27/04/2017 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Broome, WA
Made it to TC status already!

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#1422383 - 27/04/2017 17:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
Yes, it's officially TC Frances

IDD20300
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 5:05 pm CST on Thursday 27 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Cyclone Frances (Category 1) was located at 4 pm ACST near 10.1S 129.4E, that is 185 km northwest of Pirlangimpi and 555 km north northeast of Kalumburu and moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Wyndham, not including Wyndham, during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Advices [IDD20150] are current for Tropical Cyclone Frances between Kuri Bay and Wyndham. Please refer to the latest Advice.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

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#1422407 - 27/04/2017 23:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3228
Loc: Broome


8pm technical bulletin from BOM .

Almost sounds like BOM not totally convinced with TC status reading this script.....and they call it TC Frances then go on about the low...?

The position of Tropical Cyclone Frances is made with reasonable confidence based on visible satellite imagery in conjunction with recent scat and microwave passes.

The tropical low is located in a moist environment and beneath a diffluent upper-level outflow pattern north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level divergence on the southern side of the system. The low has been located in a marginally unfavourable shear environment, just north of a
strong shear boundary over recent days. Overnight and today, it appears that the low has moved into the more favourable low to moderate [10-15kt] shear environment. This, in conjunction with the arrival of a strong ESE surge from a developing ridge over Australia, has allowed the low to develop well since 15 UTC.

Intensity is based on a 0.7 wrap on the VIS imagery, giving a DT of 3.0. Shear pattern with the LLCC under the edge of the dense overcast also gives a DT of 3.0. Development over the last 24 hours has been D+, giving a MET of 2.5, adjusted MET of 3.0 and Final T 3.0. Ascat pass at 0103 UTC shows winds of 30-35 knots on southern side, consistent with the previous analysis of FT 2.5 at 0000 UTC.

The tropical low is forecast to move towards the southwest during the next 24 hours as a low-level southeasterly surge continues to feed into the system, and the mid-level ridge to the south weakens.

The low is forecast to further develop today and tomorrow as the environmental conditions remain favourable, with a chance of rapid development continuing tonight with the influence of the low-level surge and weaker shear. Upper level outflow and moisture remain good, while vertical wind shear is expected to
remain at low to moderate levels [10-15 knots].

From Saturday, the low once again moves into a higher shear environment. Dry air entrainment should also hinder development from later on Saturday, so weakening of the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength should occur fairly rapidly from late Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422411 - 28/04/2017 08:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
Might be just the result of poor proof reading, or perhaps no proof reading. This is from the UTC 19:21 (28/4/17 4:51 CST) tech bulletin. Note they say there'll be further bulletins, whereas in their bulletin 27/4/17 17:05 CST they said there wouldn't be any more. How things change.

REMARKS:
The 12Z position of Tropical Cyclone Frances was made with reasonable confidence based on recent microwave passes and infra-red imagery. The 18Z position continues along the forecast track.

Intensity was based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 wrap giving a DT of 3.5. Development over the last 24 hours has been D+, giving a MET of 3.5, PAT of 3.0 with Final T at 3.5. Ascat pass at 1336 UTC indicated winds of 45-50 knots on the southern side.

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. Earlier in the day the system moved into a more favourable low shear environment. This, in conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the cyclone.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the southwest over the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared environment and in a diffluent upper pattern, with even a chance of rapid development. There is a small chance though that the system could turn more towards the west into an increasingly sheared environment. Dry air intrusion may also limit development in the short term.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into a higher shear environment, due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0200 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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#1422424 - 28/04/2017 11:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BOM expecting her to go CAT 3 severe according to their track maps. With the rapid intensification that Ernie went through a few weeks back it wouldn't surprise me if Frances did the same.

**MODS I think Frances has bean spelt rong in the Thread**
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#1422430 - 28/04/2017 11:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
zobubble Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 61
Loc: Broome, WA
^^rong haha

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#1422446 - 28/04/2017 14:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bean working on that spelling for ages Zobubble.
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#1422447 - 28/04/2017 14:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It's really starting to wind up out there now. I wonder if Frances can get one of those nice little pinhole eyes during its life. The next 12 hours will be wild to watch. Cmon Frances go hard!!!
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