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#1422451 - 28/04/2017 15:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Certainly looking a bit asymmetrical but starting to intensify nicely as the day wears on. Probably coming into the most favorable environment within the next 24hours .
She may get working on getting her on mind going soon hopefully.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422453 - 28/04/2017 15:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Cable Beach
Any idea where he will go? Currently at Coral Bay, then exmouth returning to Hedland Wednesday.

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#1422455 - 28/04/2017 16:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
The ridge to the south will keep pushing it out into the Indian Ocean and oblivion.

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#1422456 - 28/04/2017 16:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Cable Beach
Ok. All good then. Thank you.

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#1422457 - 28/04/2017 17:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome

TC Frances in 48 hours is going to encounter lots dry air which will wrap into LLCC and then get hit by strong vertical wind shear as well.
Its like being shot a few times in the head then burnt at the stake just to make sure your dead..

But thats in 48hours time...

Yes Pops think Francis is a guys name and Frances is female maybe they want us to become more masculine over here.



_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422458 - 28/04/2017 17:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Cat 3 already shes come out to play..

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422472 - 28/04/2017 23:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


8pm BOM Technical bulletin info

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. The
cyclone appears to be experiencing arrested development and forward motion has
slowed in the past six hours.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the west-southwest over
the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
west-southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
environment and in a diffluent upper pattern for about another 18 hours before
the shear increases.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into this higher shear
environment due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength on
Sunday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422474 - 28/04/2017 23:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Can't say she's not circulating enough.
Beautiful tight system atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422476 - 29/04/2017 00:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Frances looking like a mighty fine Gal, hair done, looking her best. Image from this evening. Nice to see such a fine TC late in the season.

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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422477 - 29/04/2017 00:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I'll say CAT 4 by the morning. More southern Track, longer to weaken and closer path to the Western Kimberley but still no influence on our weather.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422478 - 29/04/2017 00:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Yes wouldn't have given it too much of a chance of going Cat 3 a week ago.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422480 - 29/04/2017 01:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC notes for the record.

REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 124.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY
CONVECTION THAT HAS, AT TIMES, REVEALED A LOW TO MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE. A 281052 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTLY FORMED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION FIX IS
BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 70KTS, WHICH IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK FIX VALUE OF T4.0
(65KTS) BASED ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES AND ADRM. TC FRANCES IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER AUSTRALIA.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, STEERING TC
FRANCES TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AT FIRST, BEFORE TURNING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC 17S IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHILE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT
SPREAD HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, REDUCING CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422481 - 29/04/2017 01:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Very lightning active around the eye currently. Just needs to tighten up a little more and form that nice clear pinhole eye and I will be happy with the season.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422490 - 29/04/2017 11:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome

Still doing well for now...
Be interesting where she's at by the end of today.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 124.0 degrees East, estimated to be 335 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and 610 kilometres north northeast of Broome.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to move generally west southwest during today and Sunday before taking a more west northwesterly track on Monday. Frances is likely to be on a weakening trend during today, with it weakening below tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday. The cyclone is expected to remain over water, however if it takes a more southerly track peripheral gales may affect the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422494 - 29/04/2017 14:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It appears on Sat loops it has died a sudden death with rotation seeming to slow and halt. Might just be a illusion but I think Frances is on her way out.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422495 - 29/04/2017 14:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like Frances has peaked. CIMSS doesn't have the latest data but VWS seems to be around 10 - 15 kts with the system moving into higher VWS. However,it's surrounded by a lot of dry air. Upper outflow seems to be all to the south.

After several completely overcast days here today is completely clear blue skies with the wet season humidity virtually gone. I only got 3 mm out of Frances but on the Tiwis they did a lot better with Pirlangimpi getting a total of 233 mm.

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#1422496 - 29/04/2017 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah CIMSS seemed to be a bit off with Frances. The ADT values were all over the shop cutting in/out and missing big chunks. There was an eye feature for a period and no mention, 999hpa. Up the creek CIMSS data for Frances.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422505 - 29/04/2017 18:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Starting to go through a rough stage in her life .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422517 - 29/04/2017 23:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Technical info for TC Frances not looking good but still Cat 2 atm but on a downward slide.

From BOM

Animated Total Precipitable Water shows dry wrapping around the system and
encroaching into the centre. Upper winds shows the system in the upper ridge
with only outflow to the south of the system. CIMMS Vertical Shear [low to high
level] is being diagnosed as low [14 kts] with the vector being NNE. The
concensus of model guidance has the system continuing to weaken, with dry air
entrainment and increasing vertical shear the apparent reason. Due to being a
small system, this weakening is forecast to be faster than normal and weakening
below tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday morning or early afternoon.

Latest consensus of the guidance has the system moving to the southwest before
taking a more westward track later Sunday then west northwest later Monday.
However, some model guidance has the system moving slower and further south
tonight and early Sunday, thus the extension of the warning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422519 - 30/04/2017 03:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wow total disintegration tonight. Sad but I think the season may be over. Haha as soon as I wrote that I questioned what I just said. Maybe that Coral Sea thingo can do the cross continent traverse and end up over here in the 2nd week of May. Who knows.
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