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#1422126 - 25/04/2017 12:37 Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017
tropicbreeze Offline
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Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
They've labeled it so might as well put it up. This is probably all there'll be on it


Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 7:40 am CST on Tuesday 25 April 2017 for the period until midnight CST Thursday 27 April 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1008 hPa, was located just north of the Northern Region, over the central Arafura Sea near 7.9S 133.1E, about 460 km north of Maningrida at 6:30am CST on 25 April 2017 and was moving towards the west at 9 km/h.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving west to southwest across the Arafura Sea, well north of the Northern Territory. The low may slowly develop during the coming days, with a risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Thursday.

Even if the low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, winds over the southern Arafura Sea and about the northwest coast of the Northern Territory are expected to increase from late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday: Low.
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.

From Friday, the low is forecast to move further west through the Timor or Banda Seas, reducing the risk of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region.










Edited by Mick10 (27/04/2017 18:51)

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#1422130 - 25/04/2017 13:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome

Looks like its going to be slow moving to the West in the next couple of days and maybe fighting a trough for its moisture supply.
Fairly disorganised as far as convection goes atm though.

Depending how West it goes will determine strength as well according to the outlook going into Friday.
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#1422241 - 26/04/2017 12:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Models seem a bit more interested in the system developing into a TC 1 or 2 strength within the next couple of days. Suggesting rapid intensification within the next 48 hours.

System expected to move to the south west as it tracks across the Timor Sea into an area with a decreasing wind shear and favourable outflow potential.

In the long term the models suggest that it will be in an area of strong shear and dry air wrapping into its LLC so dying fairly rapidly off the West Kimberley coast.

But interesting for the next few days at least.
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#1422307 - 26/04/2017 19:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
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BOM still only gives a moderate chance of development but JTWC seems more confident, giving it a high chance.

WTXS21 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 131.8E TO 10.6S 126.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRE AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270300Z.//
NNNN

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#1422351 - 27/04/2017 12:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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BOM has jumped on it now. Expected to be TC later tonight. I wonder just how strong this one can get before weakening. Another Severe TC perhaps. Wait and see.

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#1422353 - 27/04/2017 12:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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JTWC Blurb. Rapid development. BANG. Here it goes. What name will this one be. Will look it up.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261239Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS SHOWED THE EASTERN HALF OF A DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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#1422354 - 27/04/2017 12:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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I think we are still on TC Frances if it forms. She failed to get named last time that name came up a few weeks ago.
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#1422355 - 27/04/2017 12:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
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Crossing at Thangoo as a cat 4 Popeye...😀

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#1422360 - 27/04/2017 14:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
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I certainly think if it gets fully going and bombs away then it may take longer to wind itself down. The models and BOM seem to quickly destroy it so it will eventually encounter some shear and dry air I guess. Be interesting to see what happens. A little further South of its intended track puts the Nth Kimberley under the firing line if only just higher rainfall. Something to watch late in the season.
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#1422361 - 27/04/2017 14:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
8 day rainfall charts seems to show a bit of a soft on for the West Kimberley. I wonder if she gets excited out there it may lift its game. lol

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#1422364 - 27/04/2017 14:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Loc: Noonamah
The low is in an area of 10-15 kts VWS and the predicted track is taking it into lower VWS. The ridge to the south is pushing a lot of dry air up this way and this is likely to have a significant effect on the system. We've been under heavy cloud cover here but there's only been a very light sprinkle of rain near the coast and a bit more over the Tiwis. Had been hoping for a good final burst of rain before the dry sets in but that's only happening off the coast.

Incidentally, tomorrow 11 years ago TC Monica finally weakened into a tropical low after an energetic whirl across the top of Australia.

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#1422374 - 27/04/2017 16:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Can see in this water vapour pic the outflow to the south east and not much available moisture in the track.
Dry air from ridge hampering any moisture wandering southwards.

Tightening up nicely in the next couple of days as it peaks out as a TC Cat 2.

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#1422379 - 27/04/2017 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Sepo Offline
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Loc: Broome, WA
Made it to TC status already!

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#1422383 - 27/04/2017 17:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Loc: Noonamah
Yes, it's officially TC Frances

IDD20300
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 5:05 pm CST on Thursday 27 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Cyclone Frances (Category 1) was located at 4 pm ACST near 10.1S 129.4E, that is 185 km northwest of Pirlangimpi and 555 km north northeast of Kalumburu and moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Wyndham, not including Wyndham, during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Advices [IDD20150] are current for Tropical Cyclone Frances between Kuri Bay and Wyndham. Please refer to the latest Advice.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

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#1422407 - 27/04/2017 23:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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8pm technical bulletin from BOM .

Almost sounds like BOM not totally convinced with TC status reading this script.....and they call it TC Frances then go on about the low...?

The position of Tropical Cyclone Frances is made with reasonable confidence based on visible satellite imagery in conjunction with recent scat and microwave passes.

The tropical low is located in a moist environment and beneath a diffluent upper-level outflow pattern north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level divergence on the southern side of the system. The low has been located in a marginally unfavourable shear environment, just north of a
strong shear boundary over recent days. Overnight and today, it appears that the low has moved into the more favourable low to moderate [10-15kt] shear environment. This, in conjunction with the arrival of a strong ESE surge from a developing ridge over Australia, has allowed the low to develop well since 15 UTC.

Intensity is based on a 0.7 wrap on the VIS imagery, giving a DT of 3.0. Shear pattern with the LLCC under the edge of the dense overcast also gives a DT of 3.0. Development over the last 24 hours has been D+, giving a MET of 2.5, adjusted MET of 3.0 and Final T 3.0. Ascat pass at 0103 UTC shows winds of 30-35 knots on southern side, consistent with the previous analysis of FT 2.5 at 0000 UTC.

The tropical low is forecast to move towards the southwest during the next 24 hours as a low-level southeasterly surge continues to feed into the system, and the mid-level ridge to the south weakens.

The low is forecast to further develop today and tomorrow as the environmental conditions remain favourable, with a chance of rapid development continuing tonight with the influence of the low-level surge and weaker shear. Upper level outflow and moisture remain good, while vertical wind shear is expected to
remain at low to moderate levels [10-15 knots].

From Saturday, the low once again moves into a higher shear environment. Dry air entrainment should also hinder development from later on Saturday, so weakening of the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength should occur fairly rapidly from late Saturday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1422411 - 28/04/2017 08:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Might be just the result of poor proof reading, or perhaps no proof reading. This is from the UTC 19:21 (28/4/17 4:51 CST) tech bulletin. Note they say there'll be further bulletins, whereas in their bulletin 27/4/17 17:05 CST they said there wouldn't be any more. How things change.

REMARKS:
The 12Z position of Tropical Cyclone Frances was made with reasonable confidence based on recent microwave passes and infra-red imagery. The 18Z position continues along the forecast track.

Intensity was based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 wrap giving a DT of 3.5. Development over the last 24 hours has been D+, giving a MET of 3.5, PAT of 3.0 with Final T at 3.5. Ascat pass at 1336 UTC indicated winds of 45-50 knots on the southern side.

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. Earlier in the day the system moved into a more favourable low shear environment. This, in conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the cyclone.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the southwest over the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared environment and in a diffluent upper pattern, with even a chance of rapid development. There is a small chance though that the system could turn more towards the west into an increasingly sheared environment. Dry air intrusion may also limit development in the short term.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into a higher shear environment, due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0200 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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#1422424 - 28/04/2017 11:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
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BOM expecting her to go CAT 3 severe according to their track maps. With the rapid intensification that Ernie went through a few weeks back it wouldn't surprise me if Frances did the same.

**MODS I think Frances has bean spelt rong in the Thread**
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#1422430 - 28/04/2017 11:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
zobubble Offline
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Registered: 07/01/2013
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^^rong haha

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#1422446 - 28/04/2017 14:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Bean working on that spelling for ages Zobubble.
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#1422447 - 28/04/2017 14:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
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It's really starting to wind up out there now. I wonder if Frances can get one of those nice little pinhole eyes during its life. The next 12 hours will be wild to watch. Cmon Frances go hard!!!
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#1422451 - 28/04/2017 15:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Certainly looking a bit asymmetrical but starting to intensify nicely as the day wears on. Probably coming into the most favorable environment within the next 24hours .
She may get working on getting her on mind going soon hopefully.
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#1422453 - 28/04/2017 15:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Ningergirl Offline
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Any idea where he will go? Currently at Coral Bay, then exmouth returning to Hedland Wednesday.

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#1422455 - 28/04/2017 16:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
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The ridge to the south will keep pushing it out into the Indian Ocean and oblivion.

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#1422456 - 28/04/2017 16:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
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Loc: Cable Beach
Ok. All good then. Thank you.

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#1422457 - 28/04/2017 17:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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TC Frances in 48 hours is going to encounter lots dry air which will wrap into LLCC and then get hit by strong vertical wind shear as well.
Its like being shot a few times in the head then burnt at the stake just to make sure your dead..

But thats in 48hours time...

Yes Pops think Francis is a guys name and Frances is female maybe they want us to become more masculine over here.



_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1422458 - 28/04/2017 17:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Cat 3 already shes come out to play..

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1422472 - 28/04/2017 23:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Posts: 3190
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8pm BOM Technical bulletin info

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. The
cyclone appears to be experiencing arrested development and forward motion has
slowed in the past six hours.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the west-southwest over
the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
west-southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
environment and in a diffluent upper pattern for about another 18 hours before
the shear increases.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into this higher shear
environment due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength on
Sunday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422474 - 28/04/2017 23:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Can't say she's not circulating enough.
Beautiful tight system atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422476 - 29/04/2017 00:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Frances looking like a mighty fine Gal, hair done, looking her best. Image from this evening. Nice to see such a fine TC late in the season.

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#1422477 - 29/04/2017 00:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I'll say CAT 4 by the morning. More southern Track, longer to weaken and closer path to the Western Kimberley but still no influence on our weather.
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#1422478 - 29/04/2017 00:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Yes wouldn't have given it too much of a chance of going Cat 3 a week ago.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422480 - 29/04/2017 01:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC notes for the record.

REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 124.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY
CONVECTION THAT HAS, AT TIMES, REVEALED A LOW TO MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE. A 281052 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTLY FORMED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION FIX IS
BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 70KTS, WHICH IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK FIX VALUE OF T4.0
(65KTS) BASED ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES AND ADRM. TC FRANCES IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER AUSTRALIA.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, STEERING TC
FRANCES TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AT FIRST, BEFORE TURNING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC 17S IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHILE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT
SPREAD HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, REDUCING CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
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#1422481 - 29/04/2017 01:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Very lightning active around the eye currently. Just needs to tighten up a little more and form that nice clear pinhole eye and I will be happy with the season.
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#1422490 - 29/04/2017 11:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome

Still doing well for now...
Be interesting where she's at by the end of today.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 124.0 degrees East, estimated to be 335 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and 610 kilometres north northeast of Broome.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to move generally west southwest during today and Sunday before taking a more west northwesterly track on Monday. Frances is likely to be on a weakening trend during today, with it weakening below tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday. The cyclone is expected to remain over water, however if it takes a more southerly track peripheral gales may affect the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1422494 - 29/04/2017 14:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It appears on Sat loops it has died a sudden death with rotation seeming to slow and halt. Might just be a illusion but I think Frances is on her way out.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422495 - 29/04/2017 14:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like Frances has peaked. CIMSS doesn't have the latest data but VWS seems to be around 10 - 15 kts with the system moving into higher VWS. However,it's surrounded by a lot of dry air. Upper outflow seems to be all to the south.

After several completely overcast days here today is completely clear blue skies with the wet season humidity virtually gone. I only got 3 mm out of Frances but on the Tiwis they did a lot better with Pirlangimpi getting a total of 233 mm.

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#1422496 - 29/04/2017 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah CIMSS seemed to be a bit off with Frances. The ADT values were all over the shop cutting in/out and missing big chunks. There was an eye feature for a period and no mention, 999hpa. Up the creek CIMSS data for Frances.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422505 - 29/04/2017 18:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Starting to go through a rough stage in her life .
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422517 - 29/04/2017 23:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


Technical info for TC Frances not looking good but still Cat 2 atm but on a downward slide.

From BOM

Animated Total Precipitable Water shows dry wrapping around the system and
encroaching into the centre. Upper winds shows the system in the upper ridge
with only outflow to the south of the system. CIMMS Vertical Shear [low to high
level] is being diagnosed as low [14 kts] with the vector being NNE. The
concensus of model guidance has the system continuing to weaken, with dry air
entrainment and increasing vertical shear the apparent reason. Due to being a
small system, this weakening is forecast to be faster than normal and weakening
below tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday morning or early afternoon.

Latest consensus of the guidance has the system moving to the southwest before
taking a more westward track later Sunday then west northwest later Monday.
However, some model guidance has the system moving slower and further south
tonight and early Sunday, thus the extension of the warning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422519 - 30/04/2017 03:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7770
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wow total disintegration tonight. Sad but I think the season may be over. Haha as soon as I wrote that I questioned what I just said. Maybe that Coral Sea thingo can do the cross continent traverse and end up over here in the 2nd week of May. Who knows.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1422530 - 30/04/2017 11:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome

Downgraded to just a low now and moving Westwards away from the coast .

The obituary will start later today for ex TC Frances .

Any contributions gladly accepted .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422564 - 01/05/2017 00:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome


TC Frances took awhile to get going but once into the Tmor Sea quickly intensified and went to Cat2 then Cat 3 within a day .

Stayed a TC for 3 days which is not a long time but considering all the factors she had to deal with she did pretty well.

Unfortunately Frances once a couple of hundred kilometers off the North Kimberley coast and heading in a southwesterly encountered some fairly unfavorable shear and dry air which wrapped into its circulation and ultimately cause her demise.

Frances is gone but not forgotten although no real impact on the coast except for some very heavy falls in Tiwi Islands and few other parts of the NT.


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422577 - 01/05/2017 10:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yeh Desieboy was an interesting system that's for sure. After two duds in the same area this one suddenly went "bang" and powered up nicely.
And models were pretty good predicting it as well apart from its intensity that I reckon surprised them a bit.
This mornings sat map shows some good convection in its vicinity again so there may be some good falls about the NW Kimberley coast today.

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#1422582 - 01/05/2017 12:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Francis (97P) - Timor Sea April 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3190
Loc: Broome

Yep Jimmy ,models were pretty accurate once they jumped on board with this system .

Frances was pretty amazing how it battled through the Arafura Sea with quite a few different steering mechanisms affecting her and troughs trying to steal away available moisture.

Also Frances was sitting on edge of some pretty strong shear at one stage during her inception and battled through that as well..

All in all think TC Frances was a good system and a good learning curve on how a low may form ,develop ,steer and intensify especially with so many influential factors to deal with.

A bit of convection definitely still there today being drawn in by a bit of a trough from the south.
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