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#1422744 - 04/05/2017 08:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
For anyone interested in forecasting here is a link to an interesting article in Science (14 April 17)on advances in NOAA/NWS weather/climate models:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6334/128

It was interesting to read that part of the impetus for the programme was Hurricane Sandy's impact on NY and the failure of NWS to predict this whereas the Europeans got it right.

This is the summary:

For decades, code devised by Shian-Jiann Lin, a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has powered many of the United States's climate models. Now, his program, which describes with canny accuracy the swirl of air around the globe, will expand into a new domain: the short-term weather forecasts of the National Weather Service. By 2018, Lin's program will power a unified system for both climate and weather forecasting, one that could predict conditions tomorrow, or a century from now. It represents a coming merger between weather and climate scientists, who have discovered common ground in seeking rapid progress on "subseasonal to seasonal" predictions—forecasts from a month to 2 years out.

Anyone want to comment from an Australian perspective?
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Science is the only answer

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#1422770 - 04/05/2017 18:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Multiversity]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Terrific Ken. In Australia do we get suitable conditions for long lived contrails further south? I am thinking of the northern latitudes of Europe/Britain where contrails are a very apparent long lived feature especially in winter skies. Do they ever have to get factored into forecasts of ambient temperatures?

Yeah sometimes we get the right conditions here and in other states for contrails to persist for a long time. But they're most noticeable in regions like Europe and the US where there's a lot more air traffic and conditions are good for them to persist and even eventually grow and merge into more extensive cirrus cloud in their own right.
They're not factored directly into day to day forecasting since they have to be very extensive and persistent to have much effect in the short range although they are indirectly used if they're extensive/persistent enough to show up in the satellite data and surface obs that get ingested into the models.

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#1422772 - 04/05/2017 18:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Multiversity]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
For anyone interested in forecasting here is a link to an interesting article in Science (14 April 17)on advances in NOAA/NWS weather/climate models:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6334/128

It was interesting to read that part of the impetus for the programme was Hurricane Sandy's impact on NY and the failure of NWS to predict this whereas the Europeans got it right.

This is the summary:

For decades, code devised by Shian-Jiann Lin, a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has powered many of the United States's climate models. Now, his program, which describes with canny accuracy the swirl of air around the globe, will expand into a new domain: the short-term weather forecasts of the National Weather Service. By 2018, Lin's program will power a unified system for both climate and weather forecasting, one that could predict conditions tomorrow, or a century from now. It represents a coming merger between weather and climate scientists, who have discovered common ground in seeking rapid progress on "subseasonal to seasonal" predictions—forecasts from a month to 2 years out.

Anyone want to comment from an Australian perspective?


Sandy was actually also a reason why the NWS got a funding boost from the government with the premise of trying to make GFS better. In saying that though, it's always tricky to try and categorically say that one model did better than another for an individual event simply because it has higher overall accuracy. It's how it handles many events and/or particular setups which is particularly important.
The US is top notch when it comes to pioneering weather and modeling research but due to less than ideal cooperation between NOAA and the outside research sector, the GFS model has been a bit of an exception (it still lags behind the EC model in many areas including the way it assimilates obs data, vertical resolution, etc). The fact that funding for the ECMWF's model comes from all its member states and is better funded than the government-run GFS also contributes to the difference.

The concept of having a single system that covers all forecasting timescales from day to day weather up to seasonal and climate isn't new - the UK's Unified Model (which our ACCESS model is based on) is a single integrated system that does everything from short range weather forecasting to seasonal and climate stuff.

Incidentally, EC's next upgrade is due to become fully operational next month while GFS's is also due next month (from memory).

Best to discuss the non day to day weather stuff in a separate thread though.

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#1422776 - 04/05/2017 19:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
The runs of some models over the last couple or so days have been trying to form either a trough or a low (depending on the model) from around mid next week off the central QLD coast in response to an approaching upper system before whisking it away.

Normally, I prefer being "too far" south of such a system rather than being too far north given rainfall tends to progressively spread south and such systems often seem to form a bit to the south of initial expectations... but there's so many things going against it in terms of much significant effect on the coast e.g. how quick it moves away from the coast rather than hanging around, models undecided on whether it's an actual low or just a trough that digs in (if the latter, winds on its western side may be deflected to have a more SSE component with less precip), or how far off the coast it forms.

So it currently doesn't look that exciting for us unless the above things change.

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#1422778 - 04/05/2017 19:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
31.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, thanks to showers during the evening and overnight. A few of these brought some rather heavy bursts of rain as they passed through. I had just been expecting the odd steady to moderate shower, so the heaviness caught me by surprise.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1422779 - 04/05/2017 20:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
A quarter of mm from some lost cloud have given us a sniff of rain since Deb.
Hope this next lot turns it up a bit.

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#1422783 - 04/05/2017 23:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 944
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
1mm

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#1422793 - 05/05/2017 07:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Terrific Ken. Good to have a meteorologist's point of view.
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Science is the only answer

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#1422795 - 05/05/2017 07:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessG looks interesting for us wednesday.

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#1422810 - 05/05/2017 15:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 196
Loc: Gympie
Last few days just watching the dark clouds blow past

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#1422815 - 05/05/2017 17:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 944
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yeah Elf, looks like we'll see some beach erosion at the least...
Access has double punch with a ecl against a high to the south...
Give it an hour or so for it to update... it'll be gone!

Thursday


Sunday week


Edited by Blowin' (05/05/2017 17:53)

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#1422817 - 05/05/2017 18:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Ken, do you know what the light-aircraft at altitude (assume >10000ft) flying circuits over Brisbane ATM is? Is it involved in aerial recon/imagery? Been there for several hours.
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Science is the only answer

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#1422827 - 06/05/2017 06:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
And yes,its gone further east & day later. The coastal fringe may not even get any joy either.
Hope something happens to bring it closer to the coast.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (06/05/2017 06:58)

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#1422829 - 06/05/2017 07:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Whenever these systems stay east of the coast, the land doesn't usually get that much rain (even if it looks close) because the system deflects the winds to come from a more SSE direction onto the coast rather than a more moist SE/E/NE flow.

The system has to be a) really close to the coast or just inland of it for heavy rain to occur or b) it has to avoid excessively "digging into" the high to the south to allow the flow onto the coast to stay more onshore c) the steering flow in the layer where the precip/clouds form has to be very onshore and stiff or d) an upper system with enough moisture has to compensate.

They often look pretty on charts but if you look closer and mentally cut out all the precip over water, it's really only been parts of the coastal fringe which have been showing much rainfall.

So I can't see major impacts happening unless one of the above factors suddenly comes into the equation.

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#1422830 - 06/05/2017 08:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3556
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for wisdom Ken.

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#1422831 - 06/05/2017 09:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 944
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Thanks Ken,
Yes probably not flooding rain but I would think coastal gales and large, powerful surf are possible.
Also if the cradling high deflects the low west towards the coast as latest access seems to indicate?

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#1422833 - 06/05/2017 10:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
For the system mid next week, strong winds along the exposed coastline maybe, but not gale force unless the system turns out to be stronger and closer to the coast than currently expected.
EC's currently suggesting sustained wind speeds of 40-50km/hr and ACCESS-G around 50-60km/hr along the more exposed parts so those scenarios are below gale force. Some gales may occur further out to sea though.

Rough seas along the more exposed coast probably, but the current scenario doesn't suggest swell and wave periods amounting to dangerous powerful surf.

The movement of the system doesn't just depend on the cradling of the high (if it did, every offshore system with a surface high to the south would always come onto the coast) but would also depend on the belt of strong SE flow on its western side, the approaching upper system to its south and a belt of W to NWlies at 700hpa to its north.

The majority of effects look like being mainly felt around the exposed Wide Bay and Capricornia coasts unless it extends further south than expected.

It's also still uncertain whether it'll be a low or just an offshore trough.

Overall, it still doesn't look that exciting unless future runs upgrade.

I don't know how the 2nd following system will pan out though.

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#1422839 - 06/05/2017 11:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 944
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yes, apologies, I was referring to the following low on access.

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#1422840 - 06/05/2017 13:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Blowin']
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2222
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
For a couple of weeks now CFS has been showing a distinct wet signal around our region and offshore for late May. That second system might bring decent rain.

Also looks like a cold start to June.

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#1422856 - 06/05/2017 20:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Sunny, mild day with a light NE'ly wind. A few photos a bit before sunset this evening here at South West Rocks.

Looking SSE to Arakoon / Little Smoky (210m) & Big Smoky (311m) -

Looking SW across Trial Bay towards the SWR town centre -


W/WNW across the bay towards the setting sun, Yarrahapinni (498m), and further in the distance, the foothills of the Great Divide -


And NNW/N up the coast towards Nambucca Heads, Urunga & Coffs Harbour, with a bit of cloud about the Dorrigo Plateau -
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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