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#1422870 - 07/05/2017 09:04 Top End NT Dry Season - 2017
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12562
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Discussion continues.
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#1423123 - 11/05/2017 16:00 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
The dry season has definitely set in. Only reasonably precipitable water is well to the north, and the wind is all from the south east or south. Don't know where our usual 20 mm May storm will come from.




Edited by tropicbreeze (11/05/2017 16:05)

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#1423125 - 11/05/2017 17:59 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
This is from the latest BOM Weekly Tropical Note:

Madden-Julian Oscillation in western hemisphere

A moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is currently located in the western hemisphere, near the Americas, and is predicted by most international models to move towards tropical Africa at similar strength in the coming week.

When the MJO is in these regions at this time of the year, rainfall is typically suppressed in the Maritime Continent, but has no significant effect on northern Australia’s rainfall patterns. While the MJO signal is observed near the Americas, the most significant effect for northern Australia is the increased likelihood of reduced minimum temperatures.


I think those reduced temperatures go hand in hand with very dry air.

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#1427608 - 07/07/2017 14:59 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Jacci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/04/2008
Posts: 676
Loc: Top End, Storm Capital of Aus ...
Hurry up October already. wink
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#1429782 - 04/08/2017 17:37 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
The dry is on its last legs....
Not long now Jacci. Even BoM have given us a 5 percent possibility of rain in three days in the next seven. Its a start wink

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#1432756 - 04/09/2017 14:20 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Jacci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/04/2008
Posts: 676
Loc: Top End, Storm Capital of Aus ...
There was a nice line of showers in the early AM this morning around Cape Hotham. Slowly the transition begins.
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#1433393 - 09/09/2017 15:04 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
Well, BOM have again given us a 5% chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday of this coming week. But the way the ridging keeps building under us it's hard to imagine getting anything but a continuation of this abysmal weather with cold dry antarctic winds being hurtled across the continent at us. I can't remember (or have effectively blocked the memory of blush ) a September starting as miserably as this. The wet has been too long coming but BOM say its arrival should be average, so it's gotta be close now.

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#1434026 - 14/09/2017 16:17 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Jacci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/04/2008
Posts: 676
Loc: Top End, Storm Capital of Aus ...
Had the first thunderstorm of the season yesterday over the Tiwi Islands! Looking like a repeat on the Tiwis this afternoon. Some showers got up SW of Darwin but quickly eroded from the drier air pushing in.
Slowly the build-up begins! smile


Edited by Jacci (14/09/2017 16:18)
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#1434090 - 15/09/2017 12:58 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
BOM's been saying pretty well none of the storms or showers have been over rain gauges but they're showing up on radar. Chances of showers from about Monday next week again and increasing further into the week. Meantime same ol' same ol'.




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#1434373 - 19/09/2017 12:10 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 988
Loc: Darwin NT
144 days without rain and still counting...

(not sure where that 0.2mm of precip came from on 29/8 at Darwin Ap - it was sunny that day with a dewpoint of 4C at the time the bucket tipped!)

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#1434467 - 20/09/2017 11:40 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
It might have been the weight of the dust that tipped it laugh . It's exactly the same length of time at my place, last rain was 3 mm on 28 April 2017.

This is the weekly tropical climate outlook 19 September 2017:

Warm conditions likely for start to northern wet season

Northern Australia recorded the warmest daytime temperatures on record for June to August. The Bureau of Meteorology's 'first look' climate outlook for October to December also suggests warmer than average daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to continue across northern Australia. Northern Australia is the area north of 26°S latitude - which is roughly in line with the Northern Territory/South Australia border.

Across northern Australia, the build-up to the monsoon usually takes place from October to December as isolated afternoon thunderstorms gradually become more frequent. The outlook for this year's build-up (October to December) indicates equal chances of above- or below-average rainfall for most of northern Australia. The temperature outlooks show above-average daytime and overnight temperatures are likely. The rainfall prognosis is likely the result of competing influences between the Pacific and Indian oceans, with a weak drying influence from the Indian Ocean potentially cancelling out a slightly wet influence from the Pacific Ocean. The warmer conditions are consistent with the global trend of increasing atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, also the forecast warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures to Australia's north.

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#1434526 - 20/09/2017 20:50 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 402
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
BOM satellite imagery showed what looked like a small storm cell to the immediate south of Ramingining this afternoon at around 1800 NT time. Looks like afternoon convection is getting started, albeit intermittantly for the season.
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#1434731 - 22/09/2017 15:16 Re: Top End NT Dry Season - 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 131
Loc: Noonamah
"Specks" have been showing up all over the place on radar the past few days, most significant mainly around the Tiwis. Yesterday they said on the radio it was raining here. When I went outside there was the edge of a large dark cloud overhead and I could feel faint misting on my skin. Nothing really reaching the ground though. My first 'almost rain' for the season.

Northern Territory 7 Day Rain List issued 11:20 am CST Friday 22 September 2017
for 7 days to 9am today


Darwin and Rural
Charles Point 0.2
Darwin Airport Tce
Gunn Point 0.4


Darwin - Daly District
Port Keats Airport 0.4
Point Stuart 0.6

Arnhem District
Cape Wessel 0.2
Gove Airport 0.2
Jabiru Airport 2
Nhulunbuy 3
Ngayawili 3

Roper - McArthur District
Centre Island 0.2

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