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#1423248 - 13/05/2017 18:02 Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We've been speculating for a couple of days now if the large scale low pressure system evolving out in the Western Bight might retain a drip or two by the time it very slowly inches (and weakens) its way towards Victoria over next week. Perhaps the system following it might crash into this when its at Vic?

Been not much to excite rainwise for most of us, so we can vent and/or speculate on this thread!


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#1423258 - 14/05/2017 09:24 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks for thread P, East Vic. doesn't appear do real well out of this one, 5mm here is about it @ a W.A.G. (wild ass guess) grin

Terrific weather, but a little dry as prev. mentioned, 1/2 to 1 inch would be handy.

Trees in full on Autumn deleaf, calm cool day with low cloud at the mo'.

Other parts of Vic will do OK out of this event though and that's all good !!
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Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1423284 - 14/05/2017 12:36 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, I guess as KC has pointed out, the system looks to peak out in the bight.

Interesting season, though, this low pressure system looks to have a repeat cousin following it, good for SW WA, and one off them should carry some decent rain over to Vic sooner or later?

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#1423312 - 14/05/2017 18:07 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS run moots enough left over rain in this system to make folk in W Vic happy?:



Us in Vic's E side will have to hope the following system has enough oompf left to rain on us! wink

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#1423313 - 14/05/2017 18:16 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Latest GFS run moots enough left over rain in this system to make folk in W Vic happy?:



Us in Vic's E side will have to hope the following system has enough oompf left to rain on us! wink

Hint: The following system looks to have much more oompf for Eastern Vic.
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#1423328 - 14/05/2017 21:47 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for next system get raid of cold nights and bring rain to top up for May.

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#1423366 - 15/05/2017 18:02 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Not a hint on ACCESS of rain and doubted the BOM forecast of showers, very happy to received 2.5mm this arvo' even though up to elbows in a hole repairing a leaking poly pipe......
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1423369 - 15/05/2017 18:41 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got an appreciated 0.5mm here a shower not long ago has added to that, looked quite wet out Nambrok way, hope for a few more showers overnight!

....back to this thread, and GFS still sees the remnants of the big slow decaying low pressure system (currently in the western bight) retaining a drip or two for us parched Victorians?:



....and a bit more Vic-centric:



If this turns out, fantastic for Vic economy (grain-wise)!


Edited by Petros (15/05/2017 18:44)

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#1423380 - 15/05/2017 21:25 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

QPF is about 10mm for Melbourne. NW Vic should get the motherload.
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#1423407 - 16/05/2017 09:54 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks SH, consistent with ACCESS.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1423433 - 16/05/2017 14:18 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like El Nio going to kill winter season and Antarctica cold uppers looks weak..

As we are not getting many rainy days, just big dump to top up Month average.

February 2 days 29mm
March 5 days 33mm
April 6 days 118mm
May 1 day 2mm

Feels warm most of autumn season as only 2 weeks start of Winter.

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#1423436 - 16/05/2017 15:43 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: chasers addict]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Looks like El Nio going to kill winter season and Antarctica cold uppers looks weak..

As we are not getting many rainy days, just big dump to top up Month average.

February 2 days 29mm
March 5 days 33mm
April 6 days 118mm
May 1 day 2mm

Feels warm most of autumn season as only 2 weeks start of Winter.

Yes but there are some cold fronts on their way.

The polar vortex actually looks a little bit colder than usual. 10hPa Temperature Timeseries of the South Pole.
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#1423444 - 16/05/2017 18:05 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good posts above.

The "clash of the titans" referred to in the possible events to come thread for this thread looks to peak tonight:


Pretty unusual to see a pair of large scale low pressure systems get this close to each other - then separate - as expected tomorrow imo.

Latest GFS shows our "slow arriving" low pressure system will deliver a good start to the season across a significant portion of Vic's cropping regions Thursday to Sat?:


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#1423457 - 16/05/2017 20:30 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
All looks like an interesting period!
Looking like good falls of rain over the wester
And northern plains, not sure about the Gippsland
Area ? Could get 5-10mm over the period.
That would be a handy little fall 😀

Not been much excitement weather wise up
Here over the past few days, cold mornings
And beautiful sunny days 😀

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#1423462 - 16/05/2017 21:04 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 5.7C, reached a mild, mostly sunny top of 20.4C here in Belgrave today. Currently around 11C. smile

A cold start to the day with fog, but it vanished from my area as I was leaving for work around 8:30am (still only around 7-8C at the time); I then "plunged" back into the fog during the train ride between Ferntree Gully and Boronia, and it didn't disappear from the Box Hill area until lunchtime! crazy

Meanwhile, my family went to Camberwell. According to their reports the fog disappeared from the Camberwell region sometime around late-morning.

Above the fog-blanket skies were mostly clear, except for increasing high cloud ahead of the approaching storm system to the west. smile

Pity my rain gauge is broken, so looking forward to this event! frown

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#1423463 - 16/05/2017 21:25 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cant wait see how heavy for NW Victoria


Edited by chasers addict (16/05/2017 21:26)

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#1423626 - 18/05/2017 15:43 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Juicy trough visible on Satellite. 10-15mm for Melbourne virtually universal on the models now. The 'Macedon Ranges rainshield' should come out to play for this trough from the NW. That's why Gippsland isn't getting much, because Baw Baw and the Yarra Ranges are rainshadowing. Similar with Melbourne and the Macedon Ranges, but the Macedon Ranges are smaller than the Yarra Ranges and BB.
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#1423649 - 18/05/2017 19:34 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Dry out this way, but 5mm would help a lot! - GFS's prog's now that the event is unfolding:


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#1423664 - 18/05/2017 23:13 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for the past couple of days from here in Belgrave...

Yesterday it ranged between 10.9C and 17.8C. A gloomy, hazy, cloudy day with light rain. Not very pleasant. frown

Today was better! Overnight low of 9.4C, reached 23.4C today. Aside from some mid-level and mostly thin high cloud, it was a mild to warm, mostly sunny day with gentle northerly winds! smile

Pity I was stuck in work at Box Hill during the day (except at lunch), but it was a pleasant evening for tennis, and also down at Rowville where I had dinner with some friends! smile

Currently around 13C.

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#1423702 - 19/05/2017 09:08 Re: Vic - long slow arrival of wet weather system from the West 19-23/5/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Handy rain for the Wimmera & some of the Mallee, ACCESS for Gippsland not real good, with those GFS charts a bit better than Access.

EC has been all over the place with this front and currently predicting 10mm for this area, time will tell.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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