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#1423511 - 17/05/2017 12:36 SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 387
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Trough and upper trough expected to influence our weather in the next few days. Better falls look like closer to the coast where converging onshore winds interact with a upper trough especially during Friday. Weather should ease or clear during Saturday.


Edited by Seabreeze (20/05/2017 21:14)
Edit Reason: shortened by a day. Rain cleared off the coast early this morning
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#1423512 - 17/05/2017 12:43 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1002
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
It appears the weather is already deteriorating compared to last few days. Cloud Building etc
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#1423516 - 17/05/2017 12:51 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Lots of Mare's tails above us this morning.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (17/05/2017 12:51)

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#1423517 - 17/05/2017 12:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1002
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Hope its a good sign
Had a truck load of flying ants yesterday
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#1423542 - 17/05/2017 17:00 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ha, BOM possible forecast totals have now more than doubled for us, so I hope it comes off, media been beating it up madly.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (17/05/2017 17:02)

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#1423545 - 17/05/2017 18:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 563
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Yea falls have beefed up a bit today. NSW BoM have even included possible heavy falls on Friday for northern NR.

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#1423549 - 17/05/2017 19:17 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 292
Loc: Salisbury
Trying to decide if I head out to the Jandowae Races this weekend or not....Weatherzone site 7 day forecast for Dalby is 1 - 5mm on Friday and less then 1mm on Saturday, and BOM is saying 6 - 15mm on Friday and 1 - 4mm on Saturday. Watched the news before and their weather map for Friday looked to show more rain then those forecasts....hmmm, decisions decisions...don't want to have a miserable weekend whilst the family stays home warm and dry...lol

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#1423553 - 17/05/2017 19:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1008
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
I vote you come out . . . . . We need the rain lol.
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Jimbour rain: 2017-351.5, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1423554 - 17/05/2017 19:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yeah, go for it!
Nice drive out there.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (17/05/2017 20:01)

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#1423555 - 17/05/2017 19:58 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Lani]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 292
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Lani
I vote you come out . . . . . We need the rain lol.
reckon I'll make the call tomorrow night, after looking at more forecasts after I get home from work.

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#1423568 - 17/05/2017 21:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
35 up to 80mm upgrade for Sunny Coast. I think someone may have suffered a head knock!

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#1423571 - 17/05/2017 22:01 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 387
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
35 up to 80mm upgrade for Sunny Coast. I think someone may have suffered a head knock!


Tonight's EC run has falls of over 100mm+ for the Sunshine coast area from Late Thursday into Friday. Peaking sometime Friday Morning.
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#1423589 - 18/05/2017 08:01 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4237
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm. Showers in past hour.
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Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57)YTD691.4(762.0)

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#1423592 - 18/05/2017 09:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Water Vapour Loop looks encouraging, 2 systems coming together soon, preferably over our place dumping buckets.

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#1423593 - 18/05/2017 09:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4399
The fact that the southern part of the upper trough still looks like developing a negative tilt and sliding away to the SE (as expected) while relaxing taking the heavier rain with it and the northern component stays to our north with its own heavier rain... while we get stuck in the middle isn't helping my optimism with rainfall amounts for our region.
The exception being parts of our coast and islands which could still do well with that onshore flow, coastal convergence zone and upper support combined with moist backing winds with height profiles/upslide.

In saying that, if a small low forms along the coast (or slow-moving embedded thunderstorms occur), the risk of heavier rain with flash flooding near and to its south would become higher.

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#1423606 - 18/05/2017 12:11 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: rainiac]
cyclicalcone Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/04/2017
Posts: 3
Loc: QLD
Originally Posted By: rainiac
Yea falls have beefed up a bit today. NSW BoM have even included possible heavy falls on Friday for northern NR.


Yes! Heavy showers also expected for the weekend in my region! Stay dry and warm friend, its no good to get sick at this time. The EAC is definitely good at doing its job!

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#1423629 - 18/05/2017 15:58 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2210
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Nice little low over Emerald visible on the 512K Gympie radar at 1538.

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#1423634 - 18/05/2017 16:29 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6283
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The fact that the southern part of the upper trough still looks like developing a negative tilt and sliding away to the SE (as expected) while relaxing taking the heavier rain with it and the northern component stays to our north with its own heavier rain... while we get stuck in the middle isn't helping my optimism with rainfall amounts for our region.
The exception being parts of our coast and islands which could still do well with that onshore flow, coastal convergence zone and upper support combined with moist backing winds with height profiles/upslide.


Been thinking the same thing. I reckon we're more likely to end up in the middle than you guys down there though. The stuff along the CQ coast will eventually head east on the northern flank of the upper trough while the southern, tilted part should produce its own area of heavy rain through SEQ tomorrow as it heads rapidly SE. Not saying we won't get anything up here, just think southern SEQ has a better chance of bigger falls than we do.

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#1423645 - 18/05/2017 18:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 804
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Might be a damp night for us. Be interesting to see if that cloud coming in will build or fiz onshore.

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#1423653 - 18/05/2017 19:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain possible storms. 18th & 19th May 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4237
Loc: Wynnum
Colin,
That low over Emerald is not a low, but the " Swept Gain " effect applied to the Emerald radar to equalize rainfall rates so they are not badly affected by distance from the radar, known as the range squared effect. With radar propagation, when the distance is doubled, only one quarter of the signal strength is received back into the radar receiver for an echo of the same intensity. The swept gain mechanism tries to equalize this somewhat, which can have the result of light rain being cut out close to the radar.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57)YTD691.4(762.0)

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