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#1423141 - 12/05/2017 00:58 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks fellas. We have literally hundreds of shots to look over when we get a few down days so I'll hopefully get some more up on here soon.

Yeah Rowland yesterday was action-packed that's for sure, totally exhausting day out there too with ridiculously chaotic scenes of chaser convergence gone mad making the risks the storms bring seem insignificant in comparison to the dangers of just negotiating the roads with literally hundreds of speeding chaser vehicles and media networks clogging almost every route in and around each active storm.

Anyway, classic triple point initiation to the SW of Childress yesterday and what a beast it turned out to be. Knuckle dragging wall cloud produced a couple brief tornadoes rather early in its life-cycle before the thing went on to become a bloody huge HP thing over in OK and subsequently went outflow dominant. We raced south late in the day to target the tail-end Charlie back over the Red River in TX and geez it was a spectacular looking storm backlit by the setting sun. Produced a beautiful mothership-type meso there for a period while really tightening up the rotation but appeared to choke out again soon after. With the entire chaser cavalry on its tail as it crossed back into OK just on dark the LLJ gave it a kick in the guts it finally went tornado warned and produced a brief tornado near Grandfield.

As for today, we're currently having a lazy morning here in Wichita Falls TX trying to decide on a target for today but I'm not entirely inspired by the whole set-up to be honest. Ordinary looking hodographs appear to minimise the tornado threat to almost negligible although interactions between storms can often enhance low-level shear enough. Will be some very large hail out there though, particularly with the more discreet supercells. Will probably stay down here in Texas at this stage although plans are still fluid...
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#1423389 - 16/05/2017 00:32 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right after a few quiet days, time to make some targets again with 3 of the next 4 at least looking good. Especially tues and moreso thurs. The last target a few days ago went very linear, very quickly so Ponca City was only really in initiation before it all turned to rainband with storms surging east quickly.

Today the weakest of the 3 but nice upper forcing moving in from the SW overspreading a sharpening dryline through the panhandle. Moisture returning but still quite high based but shear is good so should some supercells about. Tornado threat very slim but never know with these slight/high based setups, they can surprise. Large hail/wind the main threats. So for today I don't mind the dryline convergence over the TX Panhandle, with slightly more SE at the sfc very late there to assist in that extra shear in the lowers. Target today is Turkey TX and see how we go. Initiation likely further west than this.

TS cool

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#1423414 - 16/05/2017 10:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The risky tail end Charlie target prob not going to happen with only showers so far so would have got impatient and shot west to initiation on the dryline and get onto that lovely organised supercell near Stinnett atm. Given KS seems the go for tomorrow would have to keep tracking N later on.

TS cool

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#1423443 - 16/05/2017 17:46 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5840
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

Currently, "Real-Time Tornado, Tuscaloosa, AL" is airing on the US Weather Channel; I've seen this program before, as I've seen "Real-Time Tornado, Joplin, MO" a few times before.
I tried to find full vids of these 2 shows, but was unable to do so; however, I did find this vid (just over 52 minutes long), of a NG Documentary of the Joplin, Missouri tornado (this twister [EF-5] devastated Joplin on May 22, 2011; killing 168 & injuring over 1,000. Over 8,000 structures were damaged or destroyed, as the tornado had a path length of over 9kms & was almost 1km wide).
Warning: This vid has very awful & terrible damage footage.
Vid is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC8nV-xKpOs
Also, of interest (36 min) Audio of Joplin, Mo emergency services just prior to & after the tornado:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV-LvICOGrE


Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1423472 - 17/05/2017 00:19 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right, things really step up a notch today!

We have a much strong upper level impulse moving in increasing that dynamic forcing. This will induce a very nice and sharp lee sfc trough with a sharpening dryline into the later afternoon. Bit of a sfc low shoots NW across NW KS into NE but the main focus is the juicy strengthening of the LLJ later across the TX and OK panhandles and into SW KS. Good moisture as well, very good lapse rates, large to very large FAT CAPE and small capping. Violent release...supporttive of giant hail. Could see softballs falling tomorrow so watch those windscreens but more importantly with that LLJ later, a decent tornado threat with a chance of one or two stronger tornadoes in discrete supercells. A nice traditional panhandle alley setup.

Target is a little tricky as the first stuff will fire over the N TX Panhandle and shoot into SW KS quickly, tornado possibly at first but this stuff will quickly congeal into a big MCS and rage across KS and further NE through the evening mostly with a big damaging and threat and hail. Maybe embedded tornado but we don't chase those.

Further south along the super sharp dryline, the second round of activity should fire up and shoot NNE to NE off it over central and E TX Panhandle into W OK. These cells are the ones to watch and if they can keep discrete, should tap into that LLJ and quickly organise into classic supercells and potentially long-lived cyclic ones. SPC very keen and even threw that word in which is rare for them. Almost expecting a MOD risk to come from this. Key tomorrow is how well they tap into the LLJ. I do see the dreaded veer-back-veer in their forecasts which often causes storms to weaken or not reach full potential so hopefully this isn't the case.

But target box area for tomorrow is Pampa TX pushing up to Canadian TX good roads from both towns so can quickly catch storms in all directions.

TS cool

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#1423499 - 17/05/2017 10:47 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Target area working pretty well with two massive tornadic supercells passing not far to the south of the area. Starting at Pampa a quick hope down to intercept the McLean TX tornado and then once that was decayed, dropping down to the next supercell in the line (production line chasing) which many chasers seemed to do today and that has put out a rain wrapped tornado near Elk City OK as LLJ maximises potential. Things will weaken soon though but third supercell at bottom of line needs to be watched for a bit. Now if only I was actually there......sigh

TS cool

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#1423540 - 17/05/2017 16:43 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Yeah mate it was an incredible day out there. We positioned ourselves at Shamrock TX to start the day after driving down from our overnight stop up in Liberal Kansas so didn't have to travel far to latch onto the first initiation near McLean. This particular storm turned out to be a prolific tornado producer over several hours as it tracked through the eastern panhandle into Oklahoma later in the evening. Managed to video the entire process of tornadogenesis with this one so looking forward to going over the footage.

A couple snaps..


McLean, TX Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


McLean, TX Rope Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1423586 - 18/05/2017 07:49 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Having a day off chasing today with the primary focus today well north of where we finished up yesterday and with a view to getting into position for what looks to be an extremely potent day across the central and southern plains tomorrow.

Will fine tune some potential target areas this evening but it goes without saying we will be heading to the triple point region somewhere in NW OK initially, perhaps around Woodward OK.

Some really sad images coming out of Elk City OK today after the big wedge that went through there yesterday unfortunately.

Here's a bit of video of that McLean TX tornado developing and later roping out as the circulation gets undercut by cold air.

McLean TX Tornado
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#1423594 - 18/05/2017 10:10 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1540
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Nice work Orebound .One person dead in Elk City OK yesterday .Sad news could have been a lot worse in a built up area. Damage video here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi5tbUYB1AY


Edited by ozone doug (18/05/2017 10:15)
Edit Reason: 25% more
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#1423666 - 19/05/2017 01:26 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right this is a bit late but it's because I've been taking forever to analyse everything for this rather potent tornado setup over the guts of tornado alley.

Essentially we have a near textbook setup - strong sfc low with warm front subtending off it, cold front advancing from the west, a sharpening dryline below the warm front and a triple point area at the intersection of all of the above. To the S/SE we have strong moisture advection of rich Gulf air fluxing rapidly toward the N/NW and aloft with have a strong upper trough with a big exit region overspreading the region. All this with 3500-5000J/Kg of CAPE and strong veering wind shear with height, especially near the warm front over KS.

Now SPC have a high risk and probably rightly so though I have seen better setups for tornado outbreaks. They are calling an outbreak and that's fair and well but there are a couple of 'concerns' with regards to how things pan out. Firstly given the immense amount of warm, moist air advecting over the warm sector, we could see a lot of cloudiness and early convection which may act to modify the highly volatile environment and mitigate any high end tornado threat later in the day. Secondly, with so much convection and powerful dynamic forcing aloft and an increasing mid level speed max, things may go linear a little earlier and become more outflow dominated. I think though, there is enough SE in the LLJ rapidly intensifying later in the day to balance things out and keep things discrete.

But anyways, what we should see is multiple supercells forming, more of them over KS and becoming a bit more isolated and discrete perhaps down into OK and possibly far eastern TX Panhandle depending on where the dryline sets up. Any supercell that times itself crossing the warm front later in the day in KS combined with that strengthening LLJ (best over central KS again) has a very high chance of putting down a violent long-tracked tornado capable of severe damage. This is why SPC have the high risk chiefly over the warm front/LLJ speed max intersection especially.

Further south into OK I feel we will have more time up our sleeves for convection with a little more capping in place, especially right on the dryline. HRRR has been confusing by shooting up mid afternoon 'mess' from OK into KS then re-convecting supercells off the dryline later in the day and then going linear raging east across OK. But into a modified environment. Not sure about this....I feel NW OK will erupt with multiple discrete supercells which will quickly make use of the increasing inflow from the gathering LLJ and become tornado warned or close to it. Again chance of strong long-tracked tornadoes here so need to be very careful. Woodward OK seems like a good spot here pushing NE into KS or at least far N OK later on.

For me playing south of the warm front would be my style. At the risk of a barrage of glob and goop over KS despite acknowledging the BEST tornadic risk also being there, I will target NW OK in the hope of a clean, discrete classic supercell with a large tornado. Should also mention with lapse rates of 8-8.5C/km and the aforementioned CAPE and shear, giant 4 inch hail is also a chance. 0-3KM SRH values approaching 500M2 S-2, are also nothing to be sneezed at...infact they are quite scary should anything really get going, nothing is going to stop an EF5 forming tomorrow given the conditions present.

Overall, my target area for tomorrow will be around Alva OK. I've picked here because it is still a quick hop into KS but also in a good spot hopefully too catch dryline action moving in from the W/SW and has good roads in all directions so should maximise my chances once I'd be choosing my particular cell.

TS cool

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#1423667 - 19/05/2017 01:30 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice little video there Orebound!! did well the other day mate. Looking forward to seeing what you get today.

TS cool

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#1423668 - 19/05/2017 01:35 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
LOL, TS just read your last 3 lines I drove to Enid yesterday with a view of driving to Alva this morning. Funny.

Anyway, story so far after arriving Saturday arvo

Sunday - Caught a very pretty non severe storm just east of the Wyoming border into Nebraska. The view looking west(hope this works as windows 10 cant find any compressing photo stuff like picture perfect)



Monday - Chased C W Kansas up into NW KS, not very photogenic but was fun to watch this transition from a dry air big Australian type storm to a mega (quantity moreso than size by US Standards) hail dumping severe warned storm. This is a shot from its backside with hail shaft to the left

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#1423670 - 19/05/2017 01:55 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Tuesday I headed to OK Panhandle to the north of Orebound and this meant I got the first storm of the day and saw this. Have to supply links as I didn't re size right

http://i.imgur.com/GDVqgi4.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/OeJwMQj.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/xprGAIo.jpg


I then motored down to Sweetwater, Sayers City Elk City area. TBH didn't really see anything other than flash flooding, power outages , roads blocked and giant hail by the roadside. I did see the wall cloud on Elk city storm briefly but did not see any tornado. Ended up stuck in Elk City for the night with no power. This was the view from my hotel room of the culprit as it wound down

http://i.imgur.com/Rykg9Eu.jpg


Edited by Ruckle (19/05/2017 01:57)
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#1423671 - 19/05/2017 02:08 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Nice stuff Ruckle.

We are in Woodward Ok for the time being and happy to stay put here for now.
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#1423672 - 19/05/2017 02:32 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Just couldn't resist the look at the latest modelling whilst in bed (I need help) and certainly now worried about first round of activity shooting up from SW OK into NW OK and KS...SPC mention this is likely elevated in nature and it does move fast so not ideal for tornadoes. Alva target is in middle of two options, check out the first round and see if anything is tornadic.....if not then shoot west to the dryline to intercept more discrete supercells....good chance I'll be heading that way so another area that interests me is Laverne OK and keeping an eye on anything that forms down the far western OK panhandle. Could be a long relocation if the main area does not fire but we shall see. Options aplenty.

TS cool

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#1423716 - 19/05/2017 10:27 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Geez what a day.....bit messy as feared but that's mostly KS.....Alva target would have been ok in the end! three tornado warned supercells passing close to the town, the current one probably the strongest and still remaining quite discrete away from the mess! looks like could be a tornado on the ground but hard to say, very strong signature on velocity...

Earlier a strong tornado was on the ground well SW of Alva but the storm dropped the tornado warning as it approached but I think overall I wouldn't have had to shoot to the dryline...more a case of letting them come to me.

TS cool

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#1423797 - 19/05/2017 23:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Yeah tough day out there yesterday with widespread explosive development tending to clutter things up a bit. Still some very nice storms out there though and several tornado events, 18 in the preliminary report.

Today is threatening to be stifled by overnight and ongoing morning activity but we shall see what can get up later ahead of the front. Will probably poke around somewhere to the south of OKC later on.

Bit of a pano of a thing that tended outflow dominant but looked quite pretty there for a period..


HP Supercell, Leedey OK
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1423798 - 20/05/2017 00:42 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Beautiful shot mate!

Now today is still a dark horse, I don't mind it at all. If the cluster of severe thunderstorms currently over TX can settle down a bit as the LLJ weakens off from heating then it may disperse enough to allow some atmosphere recovery as it has been strongly overturned from yesterdays big scale uplift.

Moisture is still plentiful across the warm sector and instability large although not as large as yest.....Shear stronger than yesterday even but just lacking that turning.

I think development will be focused off the outflow boundary of the current activity, pushing into SW OK and then central OK during the middle of the arvo, possibly some discrete modes at first on or ahead of the OFB with increasing inflow and the alignment more ENE-WSW may allow inflow areas to be clear to the S/SE side rather than a flat N-S line where its all on big plough motoring across the plains undercutting everything.

Second option is to push deep into TX and await more discrete and isolated activity at the foot of the OFB. This could well be a goer if it remains away from mess so definitely an option....omnly thing is the shear and turning is less down here but strong supercells likely and a tornado or two possible.

For me I'll be bold and have a crack as S OK....Comanche OK to be precise. Like Alva OK yesterday, gives me good road options in all directions to shoot south or east etc to play with any new cells elsewhere.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (20/05/2017 00:42)

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#1424418 - 27/05/2017 00:03 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well after a few days chasing deep south TX and few weaker storms over NM and CO today I'll throw out a target in prep for a bigger day tomorrow (tomorrow has SBCAPE around 8500J/Kg which is pretty much illegal). Shame the shear is not quite as special but solid all the same.

Today I'll play around Firstveiw and Cheyenne Wells in CO...could be another good spot in far NE CO but need to be more south for 2moro over E OK and MO.

TS cool

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#1424457 - 27/05/2017 23:51 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all, greetings from a VERY muggy Muskogee OK. Interesting day today, a moderate risk of not seeing anything due to hills and trees and flooded lakes and creeks in this part of the world!

A few snaps since the last update.

Thursday 18th May. This is from the eastern edge of Alva OK, lots of dangling fingers and features from the wall cloud, may have been a brief spin up but if so was extremely brief and weak. Had produced further south around Waynoka.





After this headed south as new storms formed on the dry line, looks a bit like it was the same storm Orebound showed above.

This was taken just west of Enid OK





The next day the 19th I ended up in N TX near Wichita Falls

Didn't see much although the mess below was trying to organise before it unleashed torrents of rain on Wichita Falls area

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