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#1423491 - 17/05/2017 09:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3354
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessR is the only one looking good for us on Friday, sort of in line with BOMs forecast possible 10-20mm & a bit less on Sat.
Any rain is good rain when topping up tanks.
Lovely pics Ken, reminds me of Germany when I was little.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (17/05/2017 09:49)

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#1423510 - 17/05/2017 12:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 457
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
AccessR is the only one looking good for us on Friday, sort of in line with BOMs forecast possible 10-20mm & a bit less on Sat.
Any rain is good rain when topping up tanks.
Lovely pics Ken, reminds me of Germany when I was little.


EC is also going for falls of around 20-40mm for Friday particularly for the coast 50-80mm. Looks like a band of heavier rain comes from the NE convergence zone. But, clearing away quickly overnight Friday/Early Saturday Morning.

Also started a thread for those interested.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1423511#Post1423511


Edited by Squeako_88 (17/05/2017 12:37)
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#1423582 - 18/05/2017 07:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
Thanks Mad Elf smile

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#1423852 - 20/05/2017 18:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
Some lower-lying areas look like having a chance of getting fogged in again overnight/early morning over the next few days but not as good as the areas which still have wet ground.

Drier air aloft, inversion, broad area of high pressure settling in, light winds including at gradient level, some shallow moisture, etc in many areas.

One rule of thumb I sometimes use is if the min temp is forecast to dip below the current dewpoint (preferably late afternoon or evening obs) ideally by more than a degree, fog often forms. It's only valid if no major changes to cloudcover, winds, etc come through though.

Other than the warmer than normal conditions for our region in the coming days, not much else happening weatherwise.

1st image - EC cloud bases for 4am Sunday. Pink = areas where cloud base heights are so low, it meets the criteria that require aircraft to adhere to a special set of procedures

2nd image - The autumn colours in my area are getting a bit better than last year... this is a liquidambar tree near my street in yesterday's rainy gloom:






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#1423858 - 20/05/2017 20:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1094
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Cracker of a day today , great seeing day , clear as. I want a repeat next sat for our extended family fire pit night. Can you arrange that please ken.
Thanks

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#1423871 - 21/05/2017 12:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 973
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looks like the extended forecast here for the next few weeks looks a bit wetter? Is there a wet signal in the cards?
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#1423895 - 21/05/2017 20:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 457
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Don't know where you got that from? Nothing but a ridgy weather pattern for the next 10-14 days at least.
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#1423903 - 21/05/2017 21:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3354
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Tropical Tidbits GFS got some crumbs moving through at 372hrs from a trough, thats about all I can see unless someone more educated knows more?

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#1423913 - 22/05/2017 08:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4573
Loc: Wynnum
After a week of rain still less than 30% of May rain so far locally.
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#1423946 - 22/05/2017 17:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2422
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
This is awesome spring weather we are having. 26-27C Max's for late May. Alpine temps are not looking good either at this point.
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#1423971 - 22/05/2017 19:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 973
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Ya Mad, that is likely what I was looking at. Having a closer look, not much expected in our neck of the woods. Looks like the jet stream is well down to the south too, along with all of the colder air. Nice autumn weather indeed!
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1423993 - 22/05/2017 21:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Areas of shower and storm activity around the northern MNC and far southern NR this afternoon/evening. Falls of up to 31mm but mostly less than 10mm. A weak storm missed here by only about 5kms a little earlier this evening.
Pics from late this afternoon. The convection in the distance on the bottom picture eventually grew into a slow-moving line of showers and embedded storms that gradually moved to parts of the coast during the evening -

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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2018 Rainfall: 85.0mm (July Avg. 76.0mm) // July 2018 Raindays: 4 (July Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 982.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1015.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 77 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.5 raindays)

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#1424014 - 23/05/2017 07:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
I wouldn't trust the deterministic version of GFS at 372hrs as far as I could throw it especially for minor features.
I mean sometimes it comes off but the false alarm ratio makes its accuracy at that range almost the same as guesswork.

Nice photos btw Seabreeze, looks like a bit of structure in that 1st photo.
And sure Big T, but I need payment first before I can do that poke

3rd straight day of fog here but unlike the previous mornings, this morning's fog is very patchy and bordering on mist.

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#1424015 - 23/05/2017 07:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3354
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thick fog again out here, cant see the gate from the house, visibility down to less than 100m.
Any extreme long range model forecasts beyond 7 days are purely for entertainment purposes IMO. Even 4 days out has its limits.

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#1424016 - 23/05/2017 07:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
Standard deterministic versions of models, yes. Ensembles especially multi-model/calibrated/lagged ones not as much since they tend to do a lot better beyond 7 days.

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#1424017 - 23/05/2017 08:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Ensembles might be able to get a general pattern beyond 7 days, but not much detail at all. Following deterministic models beyond 7 days required lots of care.

As you can see some of the ensemble members are agreeing at a 7 day range, they aren't consistent at all, and should only be used for general patterns.

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#1424020 - 23/05/2017 08:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
Still much better than deterministics in comparison though.

Also depends on the setup, what ensemble products you look at, whether they're calibrated/bias-corrected, etc. For example, some setups are much less sensitive to changes than others and therefore display high probabilities and bias-corrected products such as NAEFS 7-14 day temp anomalies are *extremely* accurate in real life.
Maps using an ensemble mean can also blur out a lot more detail than probabilistic ensemble products using certain thresholds.

This example output using 3 ensembles (total of 62 scenarios) was from a few years ago and the runs were made 13 days prior to the forecast day:



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#1424033 - 23/05/2017 12:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1094
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Money back guarantee I assume ken, hehe. I think it looks ok at this early point.

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#1424074 - 23/05/2017 15:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5210
Looks like the outside chance of very localised showers or gusty storms forming over higher ground in southern/western parts of our region (bulk being around the NSW northern tablelands) later tomorrow (after early fog again).
But still staying boring and dry for the majority of locations I'd say, especially the further north you go.

ACCESS-R has over 1000J/kg of CAPE, sunny morning, cool mids, steep lapse rates, up to 30kt of 0-6km shear and the S'ly coastal change early Wed morning but main issue is the very marginal moisture with the W'ly flow almost to the coast (although the N'ly seabreeze effect tries to creep in along the coastal fringe in the afternoon). Some near-coastal capping as well.

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#1424079 - 23/05/2017 17:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2095
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Looks like the outside chance of very localised showers or gusty storms forming over higher ground in southern/western parts of our region (bulk being around the NSW northern tablelands) later tomorrow (after early fog again).
But still staying boring and dry for the majority of locations I'd say, especially the further north you go.

ACCESS-R has over 1000J/kg of CAPE, sunny morning, cool mids, steep lapse rates, up to 30kt of 0-6km shear and the S'ly coastal change early Wed morning but main issue is the very marginal moisture with the W'ly flow almost to the coast (although the N'ly seabreeze effect tries to creep in along the coastal fringe in the afternoon). Some near-coastal capping as well.


That's almost an early spring set-up. What stunning weather at the moment.

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