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#1424342 - 25/05/2017 19:21 Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,

Thought I'd get in early and start this thread up
For the impending two cold winter blasts
On the way ❄️❄️
The first front pushes through Sunday morning
Leaving in its wake a cold sw airstream with showers
Hail and at this stage snow down to 1000m!

The second of the fronts moves through on Tuesday
With what looks to be an even colder air mass
In its wake, with possible snow down to around
600m or so.

Enjoy our first proper cold blasts everyone 😀❄️

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#1424362 - 25/05/2017 23:09 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cheers Doogasnow! wink

A little synoptic analysis if I may... smile

The stubborn high that's been occupying much of Australia looks like it'll finally make way for the stormy cold blasts swinging our way from Antarctica.

The first powerful cold front comes barreling into Victoria during the weekend. Expect a rapidly strengthening northerly airflow to start developing across the State tomorrow before it hits, with cloud increasing and showers and possible thunderstorms developing on Saturday, with snowfalls about the High Country. Forecast tops for 17C and 18C for Melbourne, and 20C and 21C for Mildura, tomorrow and Saturday respectively.

Then we get the cold blast on Sunday with chill southwesterly winds, showers and thunderstorms, hail and alpine snow on Sunday! Brrr... smile

Conditions moderate somewhat on Monday, then winds swing back northerly as the next winter storm prepares to strike on Tuesday. Pity I have to work, so no chance of going to see low-level snow (if it does happen as you say it might) but ah well. smile

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#1424376 - 26/05/2017 08:03 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The high is out of the way (for a change) with the first front but re establishes quite well for the second cold front and pushes it off down south according to ACCESS this AM.

The third front, round Wednesday, is shoved off south by the high pressure which is shown as 1035 over approx. Melbourne, strengthening to 1037 Thur morning without moving much at all.

The cold air masses are still prevalent though some cooler days ahead with snow as per OP.

Whether the highs influencing so much of our weather lately are diminishing remains to be seen at this stage in my W.A.G.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1424383 - 26/05/2017 08:22 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.




The two airmasses on the 28/29 and 30/31, the first has some prefrontal rain before snow and the second is all snow. You can see how strong the nodes are on these critical thickness charts. I would say 15-30cm for the Victorian Peaks. 1000m SL for first node and 700m SL for second node.
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Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1424410 - 26/05/2017 19:47 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Both systems looking pretty cold and snowy
On the models tonight.
532 thickness present with both systems
So like u say 'sh', snow to about 700m
A likely possibility 😀

Jane bun saying snow to about 750m
That will give me some nice sleety
Showers up here and a pretty chilly
Sunday and Tuesday in particular

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#1424420 - 27/05/2017 08:47 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Wandering thru' models this morn. having difficulty seeing some of the forecast rain/snow falls eventuating, be nice to see good falls this early for the snow enthusiasts though.

NSW in particular doesn't get widespread rains if ACCESS is anywhere near on the ball.

Clear, calm and cool here - bit of light cloud creeping in from the W.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1424421 - 27/05/2017 09:12 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah samboz, the first front tommoz is
Looking pretty solid for fairly cold snowy
Conditions. For my neck of the woods I'd
Be hoping for 1/2"??

But not as convinced now for the second
Front on Tuesday, as the models look
To be showing it more heading toward
A cut off senario which won't have much impact
If that eventuated.(for my area)

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#1424422 - 27/05/2017 09:15 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
See what the models throw out tonight?? 😀

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#1424441 - 27/05/2017 18:13 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great thread Dooga, and great reports by all smile

Baro diving away here ahead of thread-event #1 1020 down to 1011 hPa now compared to yesterday evening.

Lovely sunny calm day here after a near-frosty start, expected strong NW'lies this arvo ahead of the change, guess they'll arrive overnight??

Hope that line of storms currently entering Vic's SW hold together for all of Vic to get some rain tonight into tomoz morning ahead of the "cold stuff"?

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#1424442 - 27/05/2017 18:22 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Hmm, 2 or 3 mm here if we're lucky for 1st front I reckon, Tue. event looking stronger.

6mm for May, not much left of it!

ACCESS spot on re time of 1st front entry to S/W Vic.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1424445 - 27/05/2017 18:48 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
5 or 6mm if lucky for the Tuesday front - be very pleased to be wrong on that!!
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1424455 - 27/05/2017 23:05 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Winter thundery lighting in West and very windy at moment

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#1424456 - 27/05/2017 23:17 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for yesterday from here in Belgrave...

Ranged between 11.8C and 19.6C, with a damp, chilly morning giving way to a partly cloudy afternoon with sunny breaks. Collected 2.1mm in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday btw... my first registered rainfall reading for the month, yay!! =D

As for today...

Overnight low of 10.9C, reached a mild top of 19.2C, but it didn't feel that warm in the sun because of chilly, gusty northerly winds. Plenty of high cloud at the start of the day with cloud increasing throughout the afternoon, although we had a brief sunset around 5pm.

It's been hovering around 15C for most of the evening but it's now dropped a couple of notches to around 13C, with blustery northerlies; the pre-frontal trough is passing through atm, accompanied by a few showers.

The main cold front itself should hit in a couple of hours, bringing squalls and heavy showers and maybe a thunderstorm tonight if we're lucky! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (27/05/2017 23:18)

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#1424472 - 28/05/2017 09:05 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1766
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The front rattled thru' here round 0345hrs, poured for a few minutes and rained light/mod. with it all being over in about an hour.

2.5mm to 0900 and a cloudy, calm morning with MtWell. covered in cloud.

Tues - more cold air but b/a rain for us.

West Vic did well with lots of 1/2 to 1 inch obs. grin

Best gust I saw this AM was 100 on Mt Hotham. The ski resorts all seem just under zero (ie 0.2C) round 0830hrs.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1424475 - 28/05/2017 09:21 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.4C, currently around 10C and partly cloudy.

Collected 9.5mm of rain this morning, much of it due to a thunderstorm that struck the Belgrave area not long after 1am. My dad could hear the sound of rumbling off in the distance for about half an hour beforehand, but I was sound asleep until the storm hit! smile

It was one very loud clap of thunder at 1:15am that woke me up, then five minutes later it was torrential rain with more thunder and lightning that lasted about 10 minutes, and the whole time it was very windy! Yay!! grin

Looking forward to the cold air shower and storm activity this arvo! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (28/05/2017 09:22)

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#1424488 - 28/05/2017 13:14 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had few lighting thunder of 6mm last night and now at 1pm is 12c heavy rain no hail.

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#1424490 - 28/05/2017 13:41 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I just got home from Dandenong. The weather's definitely packing up quite rapidly across metropolitan Melbourne now.

A raw, wintry 13C here in Belgrave atm, having peaked at 15.5C earlier. There was an abundance of sunshine over the past couple of hours, but convection's been increasing quite dramatically and now we're got showers and thunderstorms rolling through.

The first cells I noted over the past hour while in Dandenong were over Wonga Park to the north moving eastwards along a line from the northern suburbs to the Yarra Valley, and just to our south moving east from Port Phillip to its current location over Pakenham on radar. Very billowy updrafts, glaciated tops and dark bases with plenty of precipitation underneath! smile

Looking forward to the next waves of activity heading our way from the west. Gonna be a fun arvo for sure. wink

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#1424493 - 28/05/2017 14:42 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Getting hammered by heavy showers here in Belgrave! They arrived around 45 minutes ago, with a 10-minute sunny break after the first shower hit, then it got very dark and the rain came crashing down yet again, along with small hail! The precip was coming in at a bit of an angle because of the wind mind you; no thunder or lightning though.

Peak rainfall rate during this round is a relatively benign 3.8mm/hr so far, with 3.1mm collected since 9am (1mm for the first shower, then 2.1mm from the current wave of showers moving through).

Quite a sharp temperature drop from around 12C to 9C over the last hour btw! eek

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#1424495 - 28/05/2017 14:50 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2248
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very surprise weatherzone note says and on radar cold cell lighting firing up in NE Victoria.

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#1424508 - 28/05/2017 18:10 Re: Two cold blasts with showers,hail and snow on the Rangers from 27/5-31/5 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tipped out 5.25mm from early am, and arvo showers.

Bloody cold outside here right now (< 12C) , further light showers on the roof. Baro has recovered to 1007 hPa.

This first system for this thread will hopefully chill the soil temp in the alpine resorts, thus allowing the Tuesday system to commence the 2017 snow accumulation???

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