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#1425004 - 02/06/2017 16:22 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5136
Loc: Dural
I'm with you there WR!!!

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#1425005 - 02/06/2017 16:36 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I look at 18 models

None of them are saying the same thing
wtf is going on here?

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#1425006 - 02/06/2017 16:41 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
What is going on is that every 24 hour the chance of a forecast becomes 10% lower.

24 hours = 98% cause nothing is perfect and 100% cannot be achieved
240 hours = 0%

As Knot has already stated, you should predict that any model so far will be wrong, the high pressures are too domineering.

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#1425007 - 02/06/2017 16:48 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
What is going on is that every 24 hour the chance of a forecast becomes 10% lower.

24 hours = 98% cause nothing is perfect and 100% cannot be achieved
240 hours = 0%

As Knot has already stated, you should predict that any model so far will be wrong, the high pressures are too domineering.


Nah models and divergence don't work like that.
EC and EPS control have bullish nodal systems
CMC does as well
GFS is as flat as a tack...and GFS is very twitchy. Its the first to go....ECL/Tasman low
This is CMC

This is GFS


This is TWC - run off GFS data

EC


There is ZERO alignment with GFS

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#1425009 - 02/06/2017 16:52 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
I think I'm just going to wait until next week. I personally think the change will get pushed back a few days.

Honestly there's a little part of me that wishes there were no models, no radar, no sat pic, no forecasts etc etc. We would have no expectations on what the weather should or shouldn't be like at a given time of the year.

Imagine having no idea what the weather would be like next week or in a few days. You would learn to tell what the weather would be like by the cloud types and wind directions and other stuff. And my goodness the weather every day would be interesting. I've found it fascinating going on long camps without forecasts, just good ol' eyesight.

The element of guessing and not being quite sure of what the weather would be like was great. Forecasts, radars etc just make it all too easy and a bit boring. But yet nowadays I can't help but look at these things because it is just part of being interested in the weather. As a young child, I never knew these things existed and why the weather would do what it does and that probably sparked my weather interest. I really do like looking at all the resources we have, and we are blessed to have so much information at our fingertips, but it would be so much more exciting without it all.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1425011 - 02/06/2017 16:58 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I think I'm just going to wait until next week. I personally think the change will get pushed back a few days.

Honestly there's a little part of me that wishes there were no models, no radar, no sat pic, no forecasts etc etc. We would have no expectations on what the weather should or shouldn't be like at a given time of the year.

Imagine having no idea what the weather would be like next week or in a few days. You would learn to tell what the weather would be like by the cloud types and wind directions and other stuff. And my goodness the weather every day would be interesting. I've found it fascinating going on long camps without forecasts, just good ol' eyesight.

The element of guessing and not being quite sure of what the weather would be like was great. Forecasts, radars etc just make it all too easy and a bit boring. But yet nowadays I can't help but look at these things because it is just part of being interested in the weather. As a young child, I never knew these things existed and why the weather would do what it does and that probably sparked my weather interest. I really do like looking at all the resources we have, and we are blessed to have so much information at our fingertips, but it would be so much more exciting without it all.


Welcome to the early 90's
A synoptic chart in the paper...hand drawn LOL

Honestly i'm seeing a flaw in the models ...somewhere something is twitching them. I shouldn't personify things. However EC is doing what GFS would do and GFS is doing what EC should do. CMC is closely aligned to GFS (and its way of thinking i've been told) and it's thrown its hat in.

This has wait and see about it... though i'm awaiting EC's run with interest.

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#1425013 - 02/06/2017 17:01 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@ WR
One of the finest posts I have ever read on this site.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1425014 - 02/06/2017 17:14 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4268
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Extended GFs looks alright but it all gets too confusing looking at so many different models, hard to keep up with it all.

Who didn't like looking at the synoptic chart each day in the newspaper. It was the first thing I did was open the paper to page 2 to see what page the weather was on and closely followed by the comics of course!!
AM radio on a potential thunderstorm day too was and still is a favourite of mine.
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#1425015 - 02/06/2017 17:19 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
What cloud types? It's been a baron wasteland at my place for a few days now. Not a cloud in the sky.

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#1425020 - 02/06/2017 20:52 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Wow early 90's isn't even that long ago but it was before my time.

Thanks Knot, I thought you would agree with that.

The comics section, I used to read that as well
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1425022 - 02/06/2017 21:30 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Your welcome WR.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1425041 - 03/06/2017 12:33 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1236
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I think I'm just going to wait until next week. I personally think the change will get pushed back a few days.

Honestly there's a little part of me that wishes there were no models, no radar, no sat pic, no forecasts etc etc. We would have no expectations on what the weather should or shouldn't be like at a given time of the year.

Imagine having no idea what the weather would be like next week or in a few days. You would learn to tell what the weather would be like by the cloud types and wind directions and other stuff. And my goodness the weather every day would be interesting. I've found it fascinating going on long camps without forecasts, just good ol' eyesight.

The element of guessing and not being quite sure of what the weather would be like was great. Forecasts, radars etc just make it all too easy and a bit boring. But yet nowadays I can't help but look at these things because it is just part of being interested in the weather. As a young child, I never knew these things existed and why the weather would do what it does and that probably sparked my weather interest. I really do like looking at all the resources we have, and we are blessed to have so much information at our fingertips, but it would be so much more exciting without it all.


Spot on mate, the old days where forecasts were only 3 days out were more sufficient in my opinion. Too many models out now and looking too far in the future. And weather pages trying to be hero's in getting the forecast right so they can bag the BOM. Do we really need to know what the weather is in 7-8 days time?

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#1425059 - 03/06/2017 18:24 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The BOM has upped the rainfall totals for the coastal strip associated with this event. Forecast totals for Wednsday are:

Wollongong ...15 - 30mm
Sydney ........ 20 - 40
Newcastle .... 25 - 45

The rain barely makes it past the beach, however, with Parramatta forecast to pick up 3 - 6, Penrith 0 - 1 and Wallsend 4 - 10.

The impact on temperatures looks minimal, with what little snow that occurs confined to the higher parts of the Snowies.

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#1425087 - 04/06/2017 10:04 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.






So CMC, EC and GFS are back on this system. So not a fizzer after all.
_________________________
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#1425091 - 04/06/2017 10:28 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I was just about to post this.

I like when the models upswing at T minus 72 hrs

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#1425095 - 04/06/2017 11:24 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4268
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Would like to see extended GFs come off!! Anyway that's for a later date.

As Steve mentioned it looks like most of the rain is still confined to the coastal areas.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1425145 - 05/06/2017 09:11 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Once a fizzer, always a fizzer.

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#1425149 - 05/06/2017 09:58 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2634
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
You really have to hand it to EC as it never let the idea go, and sure enough it was on the money! It certainly reigns supreme in model land!


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (05/06/2017 10:01)

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#1425150 - 05/06/2017 10:03 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9668
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Watching that little system for tomorrow.

Mt Trickett may just be a little interesting at some stage, or not BUT in this sort of setup perhaps the best chance around here smile

A big fog again this morning at around -4 with a big fog - similar to yesterday. Chilly in the office this morning.

Fog taking a long while to clear although it is finally starting to lift.

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#1425152 - 05/06/2017 10:14 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
The 3 High stooges have last laugh.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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