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#1424878 - 31/05/2017 20:47 NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017
stat71 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/06/2005
Posts: 12
Loc: Camden


Edited by Seabreeze (08/06/2017 18:10)
Edit Reason: updated thread title, dates can be extended if necessary

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#1424879 - 31/05/2017 21:01 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: stat71
something will happen. However the models are arguing over the specific. I think...four days out we'll get some idea.

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#1424880 - 31/05/2017 21:08 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4268
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
I agree with you there Donzah!! give it a couple more days and the models will have a better idea.

But good to see another new poster, even if you've been a member longer than most of us. smile


Edited by EddyG (31/05/2017 21:09)
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#1424881 - 31/05/2017 21:18 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Yeah but that is Hollywood Higgins, overhypes everything.
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2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1424882 - 31/05/2017 21:29 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
In saying that, GFS is going for an incredible cold event. Not sure what the others are saying.

-4 at 850mb and -33 at 500mb is not too shabby at all.


Edited by Wave Rider (31/05/2017 21:31)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1424883 - 31/05/2017 21:31 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4268
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah but that is Hollywood Higgins, overhypes everything.


True, I didn't even open the attachment at first. Nothing like over hyping an event, but gee wouldn't we all like to see it come off!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1424884 - 31/05/2017 21:32 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: EddyG]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah but that is Hollywood Higgins, overhypes everything.


True, I didn't even open the attachment at first. Nothing like over hyping an event, but gee wouldn't we all like to see it come off!!


Yeah it really does look incredible but I'm not getting excited.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1424885 - 31/05/2017 21:35 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4268
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Yeah not wrong, but like Donzah said, give it to about four days out!!

Anyway what are your thoughts stat71?
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Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1424886 - 31/05/2017 21:37 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models seem to be agreed that something's going to happen next week, they haven't agreed on what.

Mostly cloudy, a chilly breeze and about 11 degrees here.

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#1424887 - 31/05/2017 21:41 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: EddyG]
stat71 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/06/2005
Posts: 12
Loc: Camden
My thoughts....sounds to good to be true.

I've spent the last 11yrs living in Prague and a 'snow day' was something very much eagerly anticipated....but few and far between. So I have learned to hope for the best but expect to be disappointed come the day!

(Albeit I'm hoping a little more that my home country can deliver!)

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#1424889 - 31/05/2017 21:46 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4268
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: stat71
My thoughts....sounds to good to be true.

I've spent the last 11yrs living in Prague !)


Hence your absence on the forums for the past 11 years. Welcome back.

Yeah Its a system worth watching for sure.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1424894 - 31/05/2017 22:28 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I'll post more tomorrow. Just to consider I think the models have a shakedown on their progs before the solstice. I've noticed it ever year. Compare runs. Continuity. Consistency

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#1424895 - 31/05/2017 22:35 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Run each run side by side. The divergence is huge. Regardless. There is a very cold bubble of air heading north midweek. Moisture...we'll see.

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#1424898 - 31/05/2017 23:16 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah but that is Hollywood Higgins, overhypes everything.


Thank you.

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#1424914 - 01/06/2017 09:26 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9668
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
GFS is looking how ACCESS was previously, now Access has backed off & GFS gone big.

As said above - have to see what shakes out over the coming days smile The range for around here is anything between BIG and bugger all smile


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#1424915 - 01/06/2017 09:38 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3686
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The models seem to be agreed that something's going to happen next week, they haven't agreed on what.



I think that sums it up nicely.

Latest EC run has most of the development happening offshore - if that's what happens it's potentially a significant rain event for coastal NSW and/or Gippsland, and a snowfall for the higher parts of far SE NSW (say, Nimmitabel/Brown Mountain), but not so much of a widespread low-level snow event.

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#1424922 - 01/06/2017 11:15 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.


GFS and EC. The cold fronts look pretty similar except that the EC front moves into the Tasman quickly and the GFS Low sticks around longer.

That reflects in the snow accum figures.
EC = 10-20cm
GFS = 15-35cm
My bet ATM is 20cm for the ski resorts. 500-700m currently looks to be the snow level. Uppers are currently -4/-14/-32 on GFS.
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#1424923 - 01/06/2017 11:29 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2634
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Looks like a very stock standard change for winter, not much wow factor for me. Hopefully that changes.

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#1424934 - 01/06/2017 17:16 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
This looks pretty dead on the 00 runs.

Still got some room to move though

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#1424936 - 01/06/2017 17:35 Re: NSW - Offshore Low / Coastal Trough, with rain & showers - 6th to 11th June 2017 [Re: stat71]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Yep, pretty much fizzled the [censored] out on all available runs.

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