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#1424912 - 01/06/2017 09:22 Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June.
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A thread to discuss next weeks cold front and compare two major forecasting models that are used.

This morning GFS, on the 16 day forecast, has this corner of West&South Gippsland down for 34mm of rain next Wednesday 7th June and much of Southern and Eastern Vic receiving heavy rain.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=14day&p=168

ACCESS has the rain bearing front still out South of the Bight.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

Interested to see how this one evolves and the predominate High reacts.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424937 - 01/06/2017 17:44 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Another view - https://higginsstormchasing.com/massive-winter-storm-hit-australia-next-week/

edit - re above, see NSW WZ mentioned this, not my source this time round, good discussion though.

ACCESS lacking a little cold air ?

NEWS FLASH asf has sinus and misses tennis lesson, snow covers RMGC and Petros skis to the 19th and Alexia opens Alpine School Camp .. grin


Edited by samboz (01/06/2017 17:47)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424942 - 01/06/2017 18:24 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ha Ha - thanks for starting this thread Samboz smile

Would the GFS 16 day chart run show data for next Wed (7/6/17 - day 5 from now)?

I missed seeing this mornings GFS run, here's it latest guess for us next Wednedsay(ish):



.....hope the latest proves correct because I'm playing golf at Corowa Sun-Tue next week! :;

While I'm not a snow skier (..well not any more), but I'm rapt at the fantastic start for this years snow season! - reminds me of stories I've read on the prolonged snow-induced hardships of those building the Snowy Hydro Scheme all those years ago.


Edited by Petros (01/06/2017 18:30)

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#1424948 - 01/06/2017 19:09 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The 34mm had dropped off the 16day (Oz forecast) within 1/2hr and looking at the models tonight one could be forgiven for thinking the thread was a figment of the imagination they have changed so much.

Quite a few were seduced into the scenario!

Stand by for more exciting news from the studio grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424954 - 01/06/2017 20:50 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1015
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Haha cheers for the thread 's' 👍

Yeah gfs has something there and access did
This morning but it's done a huge backflip
Tonight lol (which u would think surely it has to
Come back?)

Still has some potential for more rain/snow
And cold weather

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#1424955 - 01/06/2017 20:57 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Glad someone else saw it this morn' dooga' .

ACCESS had plenty of rain !!!

GFS had a fair bit of South and East Vic shaded yellow !!!

Wait and see what eventuates.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1424957 - 01/06/2017 21:06 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
looks like down graded slipping away..

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#1424978 - 02/06/2017 08:44 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
ACCESS at this moment is 3 1/2days, ie only ACCESS REGIONAL for the full AUS model, usually 7 when it includes ACCESS GLOBAL.

Never seen that before!

GFS OK today - http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=6






Edited by samboz (02/06/2017 08:54)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1425018 - 02/06/2017 18:36 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS and this mornings AccG (still too far out for AccR), at this stage, are showing only coastal drizzle for mid-late next week.

....he says while selfishly hoping that there'll be plenty of anti-cyclonic gloom early next week to prevent the Corowa golf course experiencing -5 C frosts!

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#1425035 - 03/06/2017 10:32 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
In keeping with the thread OP, GFS & ACCESS are fairly similiar this morning with very little rain on the horizon.

BOM forecasts snow for peaks Mon->Wed incl., given the meagre rain fall it will be interesting to see how much snow eventuates.

Should be OK on the course P.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1425100 - 04/06/2017 12:22 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Oh my god Cold frosty morning for another two weeks, we need more frontal SW winds to kill frost, its not happening just Large High pressure give Australia horrible nights and lovely sunny day.

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#1425101 - 04/06/2017 12:24 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Oh my god Cold frosty morning for another two weeks
Hope Cirrus clouds sit over Victoria Tonight reduce frost.

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#1425134 - 05/06/2017 07:18 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 5.7C, currently around 8C and mostly cloudy.

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#1425136 - 05/06/2017 07:38 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Scattered cloud and a cool morning, just a little above frost temp & calm.

ACCESS has some rain coming thru from the S/W and plenty of cold air over the next 5 or so days. Best falls in the far East, say ORBOST on.

Snow Mon above 1300m, Tue 900m, Thur 1400m.

GFS 2mm over the next week here and round 25mm along coastal East Gipp.





Edited by samboz (05/06/2017 07:38)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1425215 - 05/06/2017 18:29 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks to overcast and light showers to reduce cold nights if clouds stay overnight no frost.

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#1425218 - 05/06/2017 19:24 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1015
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
A couple of heavy showers just passed through
Here over the last 30min!😀
More coming as well!

U can see the south west cold change pushing
Up past cape Otway now. Hoping for 5-10mm tonight😛😛🤔🤔
Should be a cold winters night up here tonight!

Currently 9c

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#1425229 - 05/06/2017 22:06 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 16.4C here in Belgrave today. There were a few sunny breaks, but otherwise it was a cold, rather dark and mostly cloudy day, minus a beautiful sunrise over Ferntree Gully, Boronia, and Bayswater on my way to work this morning. smile

We've had two bands of pre-frontal showers this evening over my side of Melbourne. The first band arrived just as I reached Ringwood on my way home from work at Box Hill around 5:15pm and didn't clear off until after I reached home at about 6pm. The next band swept into my area around 7:15pm and lasted roughly half an hour, forcing the postponement of my tennis lesson; the rain was quite heavy at times, with 1.1mm recorded so far! smile

And now that the appetisers have been cleared away, the main course is arriving! The front itself should hit within minutes!! =D

Currently around 10C.

The front has arrived, heavy rain starting up once again! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (05/06/2017 22:10)

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#1425234 - 06/06/2017 07:11 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 5.6C, currently around 6C and mostly cloudy with showers. Collected 6.3mm of rain in the 24 hours to 7am this morning. smile

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#1425241 - 06/06/2017 08:14 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Strong wind roared thru' here from S/W round midnight and showers gave us 4mm.

Mt Morrnapa obs - 52kph gust at that time and windy for couple of hours afterwards, 10.8mm.

Lots of blue sky this AM, calm and cool.


Edited by samboz (06/06/2017 08:16)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1425294 - 06/06/2017 19:12 Re: Cold front and lots of rain ? - GFS V ACCESS 7th-11th June. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1015
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
8mm out of that front last night.
Front swept through with hail and heavy
Rain. Temp drop from 9c to 6c in about
10min!!

Max today of 10.5c and currently 6.8c
And clear.

Nice little drop samboz 👍

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