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#1425761 - 11/06/2017 16:41 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
The airflow is so moist here that mid-afternoon fog and mist suddenly started forming as I was going through Sunnybank during the breaks in the rainfall - 1st photo.

Also below was the 12z EC's forecast for early Tue - its suggestion was one of the small low level circulations becoming the dominant one and strengthening by then. Haven't checked the 00z run yet:






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#1425763 - 11/06/2017 17:03 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6453
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
00z EC looks to be even closer

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#1425765 - 11/06/2017 17:39 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 297
Loc: Salisbury
Event total of 35.5mm thus far for Salisbury...the rain on the tin roof today at times sounded like we were getting more then the gauge says we have received, but not to be the case apparently

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#1425767 - 11/06/2017 18:19 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2745
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Lovely surprise in the rain gauge tonight, 8mm since Friday night. Bring on more!!
Thanks for the map Ken, just looked at BOM forecast, nice.
Coolangatta gona cop a deluge.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (11/06/2017 18:24)

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#1425776 - 11/06/2017 19:02 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1778
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
BOM on for Tuesday in this afternoon's forecast. 25-50 for Brisbane, up to 100 for GC. Some good rain to wet the ground today and tomorrow. Could be some flash flooding potential on Tuesday.

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#1425787 - 11/06/2017 23:48 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 481
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Rain is mostly off-shore now, not sure what else is to come, going by bsch rain forcasts ?
wz has other opinions, 90% for 40-80mm both Mon & Tues ? personally cant see anything like that happening ? but ? there you go ;-)

My plastic container gauge has collect 45mm in the last 6hrs, from 4pm to 11pm, so, approx 100mm for the event so far ..
also heard a few faint rummmblles during dusk hrs (y)
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#1425789 - 12/06/2017 06:47 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4264
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth Sunday rain to 0900 - 19.4mm
Monday rain to 0700 - 0.4mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep0.0(33)YTD 697.8(841.0)

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#1425790 - 12/06/2017 07:04 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2745
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Massive fog out here.

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#1425792 - 12/06/2017 07:50 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2244
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
58mm for the event so far at Bracken Ridge.
My main concern is for Tuesday, if everything eventuates, the direction of approach is not good for our roof. It was an owner built house in the 70's and they only put a 15 pitch on it. In QLD you need at least 20 -25 for run off, although the roof tiles are tied down they will still lift in the wind, as do most houses with tiles, and as it has no sarking the rain just comes in. Tin roofs are a better way to go.

Nice to see and hear the rain although. I found out that I am a Pluviophile (a lover of rain who finds joy and peace of mind during rainy days)). Except when the roof leaks. laugh

Will solve the problem soon.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1425797 - 12/06/2017 12:22 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1229
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
119 mm for the event so far, which is well above what I had been expecting by this stage. 59 mm up to 9 am Sunday and a further 60 mm to 9 am this morning, after being under a medium intensity "train" yesterday evening for a few hours. The runoff around here is quite incredible, with everything quite soaked underfoot and water nowhere to go except the nearest streams. Another 80-100 mm for tomorrow will worry a few people but another 200 mm will certainly cause at least flooding in the usual spots.

This rain has pushed my annual tally above my 2016 rainfall total, which is quite incredible after a very dry first quarter and "drier than average" seasonal outlooks dominating the long term forecasts so far in 2017.


Edited by Taylsy (12/06/2017 12:25)
Edit Reason: Added stuff
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2017 YTD: 885 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1425799 - 12/06/2017 12:59 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4505
Originally Posted By: PlumbBob
Rain is mostly off-shore now, not sure what else is to come, going by bsch rain forcasts ?
wz has other opinions, 90% for 40-80mm both Mon & Tues ? personally cant see anything like that happening ? but ? there you go ;-)

The default forecasts on BSCH use the GFS model which (on average) is significantly less accurate than many other models. Very hard to tell if it'll get this setup right or not though.

For a number of runs, various models were going for the westernmost small offshore low to drift south yesterday taking most of the precip with it, before it comes back up from late today into Tuesday while strengthening and allowing precip to return (some have it eventually intensifying into a reasonable ECL).
The upper trough and associated cold air will help with the precip but any surface low/s will help focus and enhance it in the affected areas.

I still think the main peak in rainfall will be later on Tuesday near coastal border areas and SE QLD coastal fringe (e.g. Gold Coast & hinterlands, Northern Rivers, etc). Some of the more vulnerable lower lying areas in these areas could also get some creek and flash flooding developing on Tuesday (apart from any existing flash flooding in NE NSW).
Gusty strong winds could also develop from Tuesday near the coast and the more exposed areas if a low winds up close enough.
And some hit and miss thunder as well as the usual slight chance of an isolated waterspout coming ashore near the coast.

But these setups are always tricky to forecast because any embedded multiple small lows often interact with each other and influence each other's movement.
If one of the embedded circulation becomes the dominant one and a strong ECL develops close enough to the coast, coastal areas just to its south will get flooding rain and locally damaging winds.
On the other hand, if the system as a whole stays a bit too far out to sea, it'll be a bit of a fizzer.

My current thinking is that this won't be an exceptional system (we'd need a bigger stronger ECL hovering a touch further west with a deep E to NE infeed for that) but there might still be some moderate to heavy rain in the areas mentioned above and gusty coastal winds. This can change of course.


1st clip - EC's latest offering re winds and precip during the next few days.
2nd image - EC's latest offering re accumulated precip over the next 3 days.
3rd image - Based on GFS







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#1425803 - 12/06/2017 14:38 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 935
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
32mm for me at home , 225mm at the rellies in Alstonville.

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#1425804 - 12/06/2017 14:41 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 481
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Cheers for your input Ken smile

We haven't had a spit today, yet, actually have clothes on line in the breeze, Lol
But yes, you have inspired a further, more detailed look through a few model forecasts, which show much agreement for Tuesday !

There is definitely a very good chance the low will force pricip onto the coast due to its intensity/depth & position, drifting easterly with-in 100k from Moreton Island mid day Tues, then weakening as moves nrth, going by models.

Most precip is looking for the Border areas and sth there of at this stage, but still be a wet one here by all means, and maybe very wet ?

Watching on with interest
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Weather or not ?

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#1425809 - 12/06/2017 15:12 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
T.rex Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
A few rumbles of thunder, and spots of rain here in Toowoomba. Also some stormy showers in the Upper Lockyer Valley, but I don't think that they will come to very much.


Edited by T.rex (12/06/2017 15:14)
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

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#1425810 - 12/06/2017 15:26 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
jessie Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/10/2011
Posts: 77
Loc: Mt forbes
Thanks ken always good info. Looks like by the radar things are starting to get going, may even penetrate a bit more inland been calm out this way today just starting to get a good breeze up.

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#1425811 - 12/06/2017 15:30 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1248
Loc: toowoomba
Here on the western side of Toowoomba we had a few minutes of small hail very deafening on the roof followed by heavy rain.Looks like some nice cells developing just to the east of the range.

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#1425814 - 12/06/2017 16:13 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2745
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bucketing down in Gatton right on time for school pickup. Really big cold drops.
Rain sort of followed us home but struggling to get here.
Thanks for the info Ken, interesting couple days coming up.
Decent bit of rumbing going on now to the south, breeze picking up, might get some after all.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (12/06/2017 16:14)

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#1425815 - 12/06/2017 16:21 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
Very fortunate that the rain off the coast isn't coming on shore. Very heavy rainfall and would certainly have caused some flash flooding issues if it was onshore.

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#1425819 - 12/06/2017 16:54 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: Locke]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Locke
Very fortunate that the rain off the coast isn't coming on shore. Very heavy rainfall and would certainly have caused some flash flooding issues if it was onshore.


Yet... smile don't speak to soon lock:) smile your not wrong... sure looked to be bombing out there this arvo and very slow moving. Looks like it's going to be interesting as it developes.

That rain train got us last night , with a couple of imbedded very heavy showers. Enough to over flow gutters and flood the pagola area. Some quite slow moving patches last night.
Not much today , just a few drizzly showers this arvo.

Cheers

Tim

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#1425820 - 12/06/2017 16:58 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2745
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wouldnt mind one of those over here at all.
That storm shat itself on the doorstep, dejavu summer.
Lovely evening sunset brightening the cloudtops.

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