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#1425574 - 08/06/2017 17:33 NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 563
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Thought I'd stat a thread for the upcoming rain event next week. The main focus of this event will probably be coastal New South Wales, but most places should receive something from this event. All major models are forecasting totals next week in excess on 50-100mm in Northeast New South Wales, but lighter falls are expected for most of Queensland. Possibly the odd coastal thunderstorm about on Sunday/Monday as well perhaps?


Edited by Seabreeze (15/06/2017 23:30)
Edit Reason: shortened thread by a day due to very little happening today

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#1425578 - 08/06/2017 17:54 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Flood Watch now issued for NE NSW:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Issued at 3:44 pm EST on Thursday 8 June 2017

Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice for possible future flooding along all rivers, creeks and overland flow paths within a nominated valley [See note below].

The Eastern districts of NSW is expected to see rainfall over the Long Weekend as a coastal trough directs moist onshore winds over eastern NSW. As upper atmosphere disturbances move through NSW, low pressure circulations are expected to form in this trough, resulting in periods of heavy rainfall along some stretches of the mid north coast. Widespread showers are expected along different stretches of the coast and eastern ranges.

This weather system has the potential to cause river flooding as well as local flash flooding to develop along the following river valleys from Saturday onwards:

1. Orara River - minor flooding

2. Bellinger and Kalang River - minor to moderate flooding

3. Nambucca Valley - minor to moderate flooding

4. Hastings Valley - minor flooding
_________________________
www.bellingenweather.org

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#1425652 - 09/06/2017 17:53 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 804
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
The border ranges are such a rain blocker in these air streams.
Skating up offshore of Moreton.
Nnsw looks interesting

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#1425668 - 09/06/2017 22:50 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10103
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
47.0mm here since 9am this morning. It's been raining most of the time (not raining right now though), alternating between light and steady rain with some moderate periods at times (nothing you'd truly call heavy here so far).
There was 7.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am.

The current Severe Weather Warning:
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and parts of the Hunter Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:35 pm Friday, 9 June 2017.
RAIN BECOMING HEAVY ABOUT THE MID-NORTH COAST AND NORTHERN RIVERS
SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
A low pressure trough along the New South Wales north and central coasts is deepening and rain near the coast and adjacent ranges is increasing in frequency and intensity.
HEAVY RAIN and THUNDERSTORMS which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is developing on the Mid North Coast, northern parts of the Hunter and southern parts of the Northern Rivers. Heavy rain is expected to extend further north through the Northern Rivers overnight tonight and persist on Saturday. Rain is expected to ease in the southern parts of the Mid North Coast and northern parts of the Hunter by Saturday morning.
Rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm are expected across broad areas of these districts over the weekend. Some catchements may receive higher. Rainfall observations may be accessed at : www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/
Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree and Dorrigo.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN20032.shtml
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2017 Rainfall: 11.2mm (Jul Avg. 76.8mm) // July 2017 Raindays: 3 (Jul Avg. 8.2 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1243.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1018.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 103 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.6 raindays)

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#1425696 - 10/06/2017 17:10 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 563
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Already some nice totals racking up around the place. Evans Head in up to 223mm since 9am yesterday. I'm surprised that the tweed river isn't on a minor flood watch actually.

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#1425702 - 10/06/2017 17:47 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6283
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Trough & heavy falls edging much closer to the SE coast on all of tonight's model runs but as usual it's gonna be one of those ones where we'll end up with a lot of rain or nothing at all. I don't expect much if anything up here but for you guys down there the potential is there. Won't really know until about Monday morning I'd say. Upper low trajectory:


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#1425707 - 10/06/2017 18:35 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1727
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Starting to turn in our favour. All 3 of the main models have 50+ mm on Tuesday as the upper low passes through our area and onshore flow increases.

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#1425719 - 10/06/2017 22:04 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Can anyone forward an opinion on how Caloundra might go on Tuesday morning? We are trying to decide if we can hold an indigenous ceremony outdoors (1100 students viewing) or move it inside. 5 - 15mm is forecast is this more likely to be upgraded or downgraded??? Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

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#1425720 - 10/06/2017 23:02 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 292
Loc: Salisbury
A quick check of the rain gauge at 11 p.m shows a total today so far of 11.0mm in it...what a coincidence...lol

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#1425721 - 10/06/2017 23:12 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10103
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Ended up with 52.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am. After it eased off late yesterday, not much more rain fell here. Some occasional brief showers today have brought 12.8mm.
Only another 0.4mm and we'll pass last year's annual total of 1069.2mm (which was a very dry year for here).

There is a minor flood warning for the Wilsons River at Lismore: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/richmond-wilsons.shtml
The flood watch was extended to more rivers this afternoon, to also include the Brunswick (minor), Richmond-Wilsons (minor to moderate) and Coffs Coast (minor): http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN36501.html

The highest 24hr to 9am totals were at Evans Head (133.6mm) and Yamba (133.0mm), with generally 50-100mm falls near the coast between around Ballina and Port Macquarie.
The wettest places today have been the stretch between Evans Head, through the Lismore area (110mm at Terania Ck) and into the Upper Tweed Valley. Also a localised area of 50mm+ falls from Dorrigo to Coffs Harbour. Coffs had a decent 50.6mm fall in the hour between 9am and 10am this morning.

The latest Severe Weather Warning:
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Northern Rivers and parts of the
Mid North Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:52 pm Saturday, 10 June 2017.
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ABOUT THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND PARTS OF THE MID NORTH COAST.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
A low pressure trough along the New South Wales north coast is causing rain areas and showers in the area, heavy at times.
HEAVY RAIN and THUNDERSTORMS which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast to affect the Northern Rivers and northern parts of the Mid North Coast tonight and on Sunday.
Rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm are expected across broad areas of these districts over the weekend. Some catchments may receive higher. Rainfall observations may be accessed at: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/
Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Sawtell and Dorrigo.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN20032.shtml
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2017 Rainfall: 11.2mm (Jul Avg. 76.8mm) // July 2017 Raindays: 3 (Jul Avg. 8.2 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1243.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1018.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 103 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.6 raindays)

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#1425731 - 11/06/2017 07:45 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 563
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
96.8mm since 7am yesterday here.

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#1425732 - 11/06/2017 07:56 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1600
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
A very welcome 11mm here, since yesterday morning.
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1425734 - 11/06/2017 09:09 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4399
I didn't see this new thread til just now.
EC is pretty excited and currently has 72hr totals (between 10am today and 10am Wed) up to 200mm in some places.

I'm still thinking our future rainfall amounts will depend a lot on how the troughing/embedded small lows move. If they move too far south or too far away from the coast, we probably won't get much more... but if they hover very close to us for awhile, coast might get additional amounts well over 150mm over the next few days with some flooding.
And of course the areas to its S and SW will do well.

25-50mm of rainfall so far since 9am for many places near the SE QLD coast and lighter further north and west.... GC hinterlands 50-100mm so far... and 128mm at Upper Springbrook.

Rainfall since 9am yesterday via the EWN:



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#1425738 - 11/06/2017 10:28 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 292
Loc: Salisbury
Have picked up another 13.4mm since 11 p.m last night, event total for Salisbury so far is 24.4mm

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#1425742 - 11/06/2017 12:43 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wish it would throw some our way.
At least the coast is getting plenty,
heavy showers creating a bit of headache for display car owners for the 2017 Cooly Rocks On in Coolangatta all weekend. Lucky we brought brollies.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (11/06/2017 12:47)

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#1425745 - 11/06/2017 13:13 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Clearskies Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2014
Posts: 310
Loc: Moorooka
H've done well today. Heavy isolated rain cells keep forming right over me and sitting here. Upto 50mm with more about to start up.

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#1425755 - 11/06/2017 15:33 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 549
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
All good for rain lovers I'm finding it a bit dismal wouldn't be so bad if there was the odd lightning flash and boom of thunder thrown in but doesnt look like thats gunna happen

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#1425756 - 11/06/2017 15:46 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 71
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Been teeming on an off all day, in the last 45 mins another 20mm, 65 since last night here near the Logan River, Tanah Merah. Rain is coming from the north east, and I'm not far from the bay as the crow flies. I certainly don't want another episode of Logan River flooding as I had from Cyclone Debbie on 31 March. Certainly getting more rain than I suspected we would.

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#1425757 - 11/06/2017 15:57 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 478
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Havent watched or checked for the event, tho seen weather wasnt good for bbq today from mid last week, cancelled it Friday,
Both elect rain gauges are not working properly, one has no data going through, the other only showing 11mm so far, but that is just not right !
As ken mentioned for Gold Coast, and Im approx 8ks to its NW, & estimate from charts over 40mm here, which started only last night with just fine showers, but been quite moderate most of today and at a stab, should be nearing 50 or 60 mm thus now'ish !
Have just put out the plastic rain chamber collector for next few days = Fail-Safe, hehe !!
HavagoodN

Been rather dry here for last couple/few months - very much welcoming the event, tho might be bit sick of it by Weds-Thurs coming, being an 'out-doors'y person, Lol
_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1425758 - 11/06/2017 16:13 Re: NENSW/SEQLD - Rain & Coastal Trough - 9/6/2017 to 14/6/2017 [Re: rainiac]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10103
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
We received 57.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning. Most of that fell from consistent rain during the early hours of today and into this morning. 10.0mm since 9am. Light to steady rain is falling after a break in the rain this afternoon.

Wettest place in the 24hrs to 9am was Tuckurimba (south of Lismore), with 156mm there.
Minor flood warnings current for the Richmond-Wilsons Rivers and the Brunswick Valley. The flood watch has been extended to include the Tweed River (for minor flooding potential).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2017 Rainfall: 11.2mm (Jul Avg. 76.8mm) // July 2017 Raindays: 3 (Jul Avg. 8.2 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1243.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1018.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 103 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.6 raindays)

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