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#1424984 - 02/06/2017 10:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Got you covered with a string of neg nights up here. Around -4 to -5 common over the last week. smile

Frost is actually fun (usually) at least it's often/mostly followed by sunny days smile

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#1424987 - 02/06/2017 10:37 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
Definitely have us covered at those temps, 3 of the last 4 nights below -4.5. That'll be right at the limit of our coldest night of the year. Looks like you had a fairly frosty May, 9 nights below 0. Min temps drop off steeply up that way, Av min in Feb/Mar was 14, April was 5.8 and May must have been around 2-3.

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#1424988 - 02/06/2017 11:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Indeed, it took me a couple of seasons to realise in Hobart that the temps would OFTEN actually only drop so far overnight (moderating influence of the water).

Here, on normal winters nights, the temp keeps heading downwards unless breezes or cloud intervene.

The impact of the maritime influence is shown when you consider that somewhere like DALBY on the Darling Downs in southern Qld, has a colder average min in July than Hobart.

We in these forums understand the reasons WHY but I just find it interesting because most people on the mainland would not think it possible grin

It's fun to consider the countless "idiosyncrasies" of weather/climate wherever and also WHENEVER you may look. Hence I enjoy when Yep brings out the statistics down there often related to varying time periods/eras of weather smile

Min for May here was 2.2, almost 1 degree cooler than average.

Minimal cloud (& hence precip) in May, clearer nights warmer days smile

June certainly will keep that course in the forseeable future.

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#1424995 - 02/06/2017 13:08 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
We have often reflected that many think that Hobart is the capital of cold, even many in Launceston think Hobart must be colder when Launceston has a frosty night. Hobart can be pretty fresh in a southerly breeze on a winters day, but otherwise it's pretty mild and generally has above average monthly temps. Even Alice Springs the other morning was -2.5, colder than Hobart has been since the 1970's.

It was quite mild, but cloudy yesterday afternoon, much clearer (cloud free) today, so it may be a touch frostier tonight.

Shaping to be quite a dry winter for the most part, I think we'll see a lot of frost, but when the cold changes arrive they will be good ones. Even if we don't quite reach El Nino thresholds, it has a similar feel.

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#1424996 - 02/06/2017 13:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes Dan, spot on as usual smile

Human nature that the vast majority of people know very little about anything outside their own little patch.

I've spent many a year trying to convince people that Hobart is not frigidly cold.

I mean, a good sea breeze even on a Summer afternoon in Hobart can be QUITE cool but it's not as cold and wet as many people think. smile

I must admit though, walking to work down the shadows of CRITERION St HOBART on a windy winters morning could be damned cold!!! smile

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#1425044 - 03/06/2017 14:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 63
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Definitely a balmy day in Hobart today.
My car had a temp reading of 18c earlier (not sure how accurate)

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#1425275 - 06/06/2017 16:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
Looks like being a cold night inland tonight, temps hovering around 10 since 3pm and 50% humidity. Possibly a -3 or -4 night depending on how quickly it drops of once the sun sets.

I reckon this dry spell has well and truly set in, nothing much on the horizon. Unless the last week of June throws up a surprise or two, it will be well below for much of the state. With the threat of a weak El Nino or a least a warm neutral ENSO and a possible positive IOD event leading into spring, it doesn't look good for rain in the medium term. Would certainly be conserving and preparing for the worst if a farmer or in charge of water supplies...

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#1425365 - 07/06/2017 08:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
Was cold early last night, but we levelled off during the night and by the time I left home we had reached a min of -2.

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#1425368 - 07/06/2017 09:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice n cool for you there.

That drying out trend again is no fun. Same up here, can't see a decent drop on the horizon either.

Hope you guys get some on the eastern side etc.

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#1425371 - 07/06/2017 09:22 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2068
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Morning all,

Very dry looking on the models, not sure I will last without buying water again!!😡

Just hope we get some good cold fronts soon.

Doesn't even look that frosty either for the Hobart area over the next week.

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#1425379 - 07/06/2017 09:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
Need some of those good cold fronts to leave behind some colder air to get more/better frost.

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#1425384 - 07/06/2017 10:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Just talking to some people here who were also saying they need to buy water - meanwhile not far east of me its pouring down!!! Coastal NSW copping it, can't get past the GDR though.

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#1425612 - 09/06/2017 08:35 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
Surprisingly cold morning was still dropping when I left home but was down to -1.4 with a mist hanging in the air. Was cloudy yesterday and quite mild until after 10pm, so it was the complete opposite of recent nights, all the cooling happened late in the night instead of early.

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#1425613 - 09/06/2017 09:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice cool down indeed smile

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#1425648 - 09/06/2017 16:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
Final min was -1.9 at 7:45. Top of 15.1. Will be another frosty night tonight.

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#1425709 - 10/06/2017 18:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi guys , back in Melbourne for a few days after some glorious Gold Coast weather days.
It looks like I haven't missed any action in Hobart, gezz here we go again this month. Nothing but slow moving Highs one after the next and temps well above averages and once again record territory. According to the news nothing is going to change for at least another fortnight??
Could it be the year has arrived for the climate changes that have broken the camels back and we won't get any significant Winter. One thing is certain if Tasmanian Winter rains fail again this Winter we are in for a hellish Spring fire season.

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#1425712 - 10/06/2017 20:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 357
Loc: Hobart
I am not surprised anymore by warm months something broke a few years ago in regards to that, as far as I am concerned. If we don't get a low level snow event this winter then that will be alarming and very sad 'cause I think I am right in saying this, every year has produced one ( my weather-event memory goes back to about the late 80s only...but still ). But we need to be calm and collected here, June has never really produced the goods in the first place. I think this month could be a write off though looking at the charts.

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#1425722 - 10/06/2017 23:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 63
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
I don't believe I've seen any snow on Mt Wellington so far this year.

Well on the days there could have been the summit was shrouded in cloud.

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#1425723 - 10/06/2017 23:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Winter_lover]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 357
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: Winter_lover
I don't believe I've seen any snow on Mt Wellington so far this year.

Well on the days there could have been the summit was shrouded in cloud.


I have 4 days marked down, when snow was visible from the city: April 27, May 2 and 7 ( only dusting overnight and first thing in the morning around the summit ) then May 30 ( all day, near 900m or so ). Still a poor show !

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#1425777 - 11/06/2017 19:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1906
Loc: Westbury
It'll have to go some to be the worst winter (least low level snow) there are plenty of contenders but as you say, a number of those years had 1 or 2 memorable events.

I've used Mount Wellington temps at 3hr intervals, with data back to mid-1990 to compare winters. I compute the % of time by month that the summit is less than -2 degrees (proxy for snowline ~900m) and -4 (proxy for snowline ~500m). Using the -4 degree indicator then there are some real shockers - including 1992, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2014 and 2016. 2005 and 2011 were also stinkers - or shaping up that way, but had 1 really decent month. 1999 was probably the worst of the lot and there wasn't much to write home about in 2000 or 2001.

Anyway, I think this pattern is about to breakdown and early indications suggest it could be worth the wait. A large amplification in the longwave should push some worthwhile snow our way after the 20th.

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