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#1426067 - 15/06/2017 16:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
For sure it is Donzah.

Cheers for the info Teddy smile A fresh day there.

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#1426077 - 15/06/2017 19:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Another warm night tonight, quite an amazing run of warmish weather. Got past 20C here without any effort whatsoever. But yet Khancoban only reached 10C and Bombala 8C as the highlights.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426084 - 15/06/2017 22:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Morham Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 40
Loc: Penrith, NSW
hey folks. Any word on when a good cold front will hit NSW?
Weather feels very stagnant at the moment.

Though awesome fog this morning.

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#1426086 - 15/06/2017 23:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Feels like never at this rate, but, end of June at the earliest.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426091 - 16/06/2017 07:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Woken to a greybird morning with inky mid level cloud and 10 degrees.

If this sticks around , will be a cool day

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#1426094 - 16/06/2017 08:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Yeah I think it will be a very cold day in many inland areas too with the same fog situation. I reckon Canberra will stay below 10 today, possibly well below unless there is wind.

8:30am and 10C here which is rather cold.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426095 - 16/06/2017 08:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4256
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Yeah forecasted to get to 19c here today, but can't really seeing that temp being reached with all this cloud about.

Went to empty the rain gauge and not a thing in it!! shocked crazy
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Rainfall
MTD 61.4mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1426096 - 16/06/2017 08:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Full overcast here, with light winds. Looking at the satpic, it should stay cloudy for most of the day, maybe with some gaps allowing sunny breaks and a spike in temperatures.

The models seem to be showing nothing much for about a week. They also show a bit of a cooldown in about 7-8 days' time, but then they always do. Even if there is a front around Friday - Saturday next week, it doesn't look like a big one at this stage.

As always, we shall see.

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#1426099 - 16/06/2017 10:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
24th - 26th looks slightly hopeful BUT as you said Steve, these model things often do that far out then they disappear.

Sooner or later one will break through.

I always feel that around the very end of June or first few days of July a good change comes through. Fingers crossed.

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#1426100 - 16/06/2017 10:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I see some good potential

Its not what the models show in relation to cold weather..its what they show in relation to postioning of highs etc
EC models a very strong high SW of WA. With a mid lattitude low.
I've found these set ups very favourable for snow. That inland low breaks up the ridge .
The LWT also looks to have moved position into a more favourable one. Amplified on SE Australia around 8 days from now.

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#1426101 - 16/06/2017 10:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Teddy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 339
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I reckon Canberra will stay below 10 today, possibly well below unless there is wind.


Yep below zero again and I reckon you are right going to be an unpleasant day outside under a thick layer of cloud and the temperature will struggle to get anywhere.
Still it's somehow struggled up to 6C currently and if you like the cold this is where you want to be now.

Teddy

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#1426102 - 16/06/2017 10:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Brrr Canberra

Just like the old days

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#1426104 - 16/06/2017 11:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6174
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
I just LOL at the forecast temps. 14C at Canberra, and 15C in Bathurst.

In reality I think Canberra will struggle to 9 or 10C and Bathurst will only reach 11C.

PS: Bega forecasted to hit 17C, I reckon 12 or 13C.


Edited by Wave Rider (16/06/2017 11:09)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1426105 - 16/06/2017 11:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Tough conditions for forecasters - cloud cover limits radiative heating, no breeze etc.

If the cloud covers breaks for a while the temp can shoot upwards but if no breaks it stays down. smile

And yes WR - currently about 8 or 9 here.

Donzah - yep I too look for changing trends/patterns in the systems. Moreso than the fine detail - others do the detail better than I do, I've become too lazy smile

Late June early July usually seems to deliver a proper cold change.

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#1426106 - 16/06/2017 11:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Teddy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 339
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
7.9C here and its looking a little brighter. In Canberra its usually the first week of July that sees the days when it struggles to reach double figures
thus meaning the start of the real winter. I'll hopefully be in QLD then and miss some of the cold.
Yes DaveM it is tough for the forecasters if the cloud lifts and the sun pokes its head out we will see a spike in temps, if not we stay cool.

Teddy

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#1426107 - 16/06/2017 11:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
18 z GFS looking nicer

Judging by the spag and the ensembles I think the models will take a gentle upswing into a cold pattern just after the solstice.

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#1426110 - 16/06/2017 11:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

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#1426111 - 16/06/2017 11:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Low position check

High position check

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#1426116 - 16/06/2017 12:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Looking for a bit of slingshot action? smile

Indeed long term GFS showing signs of change in the trends. That far out can be rubbish for accurate forecasts but good for picking up larger scale variations in patterns. That is how I mostly use it smile

That 24th/25th/26th period is "promising". Hope it holds together.

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#1426117 - 16/06/2017 12:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DaveM]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Looking for a bit of slingshot action? smile

Indeed long term GFS showing signs of change in the trends. That far out can be rubbish for accurate forecasts but good for picking up larger scale variations in patterns. That is how I mostly use it smile

That 24th/25th/26th period is "promising". Hope it holds together.


Yeah if that 1036 high pauses , we may get a few truck and trailer systems through.

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