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#1426174 - 17/06/2017 12:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1608
BTW according to TAO water temp anomalies in the sub-surface in the central Equatorial Pacific has dropped to -5c below normal.
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#1426257 - 19/06/2017 03:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 2
Loc: Heathfield SA
Can anyone explain the current weird weather this June with total domination by high pressure areas. Record low rainfalls are on the cards for a number of areas. El-nino is threatening but not yet established. The IOD is actually becoming more negative which is a good sign. Is it SAM? Are these patterns going to persist??

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#1426259 - 19/06/2017 07:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17242
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mega
Well so long as we don't get another summer like the last where the SAM was stuck in strong negative for months I'll be happy. I never want to go through another summer like that again anytime soon.


Yes I agree. Hopefully we won't see a repeat a negative SAM again next summer.
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#1426275 - 19/06/2017 12:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6193
Loc: Central Qld.
What effect did a negative SAM have on central Qld ?
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#1426343 - 20/06/2017 15:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1608
BOM have backtracked.. Surprise surprise from El Nino watch to inactive and have gone onto say NO CLIMATE models out of the 8 are now forecasting an El Nino rest of the year.


El Niņo WATCH cancelled; ENSO neutral likely for 2017
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE after an easing of climate model outlooks, and a reversal of the early autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

In the atmosphere, the trade winds and Southern Oscillation Index are well within the neutral range. Equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are slightly warmer than average. However, far eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, which were several degrees above normal near the Peruvian coast during March and April, cooled during May and June. This warmth had the potential to spread and develop into an El Niņo event with global effects, but eased as trade winds failed to reinforce the ocean warmth. Other ENSO indicators also remain neutral.

All eight international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology now suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the second half of 2017. This compares to seven of eight models that suggested a possible El Niņo in April.


Love to hear your thoughts Mike Hauber?
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#1426345 - 20/06/2017 15:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Vinnie]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
What effect did a negative SAM have on central Qld ?


Strong Negative SAM events tend to promote higher pressures northwards along with warmer temperatures and less rainfall during summer, though I think the effects are less prominent the further north you go. I find this a good page which explains the SAM quite well: http://blog.metservice.com/Southern-Annular-Mode




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#1426346 - 20/06/2017 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5254
Loc: Not tellin!
So Mike, still cheering for Elnino??? Might be time to pack away the pom-poms for another season cob.....

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#1426347 - 20/06/2017 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17242
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
The negative SAM certainly affected this region last Summer.
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#1426363 - 20/06/2017 17:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1922
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Given how quickly the models turned around. There is nothing to say they will not turn around again.

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#1426365 - 20/06/2017 18:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17242
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: RC
Given how quickly the models turned around. There is nothing to say the[s][/s]y will not turn around again.


It happened a few years back in July.
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#1426366 - 20/06/2017 18:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17242
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
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#1426441 - 21/06/2017 18:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1608
The strongest trade winds of the year is about to commence across most of the Equatorial Pacific starting this weekend and lasting til at least the following weekend (could be longer). What makes this even more noticeable is the strength, how widespread it is and how long it lasts.

I can see why POAMA keeps forecasting cool neutral and lowers these temps every two weeks. Not saying it is right but was one of the first models to back off the EL Nino idea so needs to be taken into consideration especially if these trades keep up.
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#1426462 - 21/06/2017 23:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1516
Loc: Southern Victoria
POAMMA is also backI g off the positive IOD forecast a little .
The Indian Ocean looks entrenched , but there is some warmer anomalies off the Direct WA coast .
My only thinking in this is that they are perhaps thinking that with the already large Anomalously warm water in the western mid pacific and now some of the strongest upwelling since 2015 that we will see a sharp seesaw into La Niņa Territory . And with that perhaps dragging the almost set strong positive IOD back into more neutral territory .
Thoughts anyone !?
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#1426463 - 22/06/2017 02:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1735
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
NINO 3.4 is now +0.4c according to weekly NOAA updates (updated last Monday) it has been consistently around +0.5 and +0.6c the last 6 weeks or so.

NINO 1 & 2 has now fallen to -0.1c, only a few months ago back in March it was +2.5c.. It's amazing how quickly things can change.


100 ths of a degree as measured apparently denotes a change in climate one way or another ?

The temperature difference between your personal bumcrack and your forehead is greater than this measurement.

The global measurement of this is all set against a variable period in time, set across a "time period" of thirty years or so, Compare the current to the 1930's, the current to the 1970's... etc.

Water your own back yard and compare the difference in temperature
before hand as opposed to after.

Compare a manual Stevenson screen with an automatic one and still you have zero evidence for the effects of man made Co2 in any case at all.

Any measure at all where any cause of Co2 is detrimental to the current market and is profitable, I will take advantage of.

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#1426464 - 22/06/2017 02:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
NINO 3.4 is now +0.4c according to weekly NOAA updates (updated last Monday) it has been consistently around +0.5 and +0.6c the last 6 weeks or so.

NINO 1 & 2 has now fallen to -0.1c, only a few months ago back in March it was +2.5c.. It's amazing how quickly things can change.


100 ths of a degree as measured apparently denotes a change in climate one way or another ?

The temperature difference between your personal bumcrack and your forehead is greater than this measurement.

The global measurement of this is all set against a variable period in time, set across a "time period" of thirty years or so, Compare the current to the 1930's, the current to the 1970's... etc.

Water your own back yard and compare the difference in temperature
before hand as opposed to after.

Compare a manual Stevenson screen with an automatic one and still you have zero evidence for the effects of man made Co2 in any case at all.

Any measure at all where any cause of Co2 is detrimental to the current market and is profitable, I will take advantage of.


???????????????????????

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#1426467 - 22/06/2017 06:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 993
Loc: Burpengary QLD
I agree.???????????????????????
I don't post on this thread anymore because I realised I was totally out of my depth, but like many I read it and often wonder why. Actually I will make this comment. It looks like the SOI is headed for a big plunge. Looking at he surface charts for the Pacific on the Bureau's site the low pressures seem to be stuck over Frech Polynesia.
Cheers


Edited by Hopefull (22/06/2017 06:30)

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#1426490 - 22/06/2017 11:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2500
Loc: Buderim
TAO TRITON obs suggest the central Pacific is still warming and that weak westerly anomalies are still continuing.

Ocean is still on the way towards El Nino, and I'm still waiting to see if whatever is causing all the models to go the other way is going to appear or not.....

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#1426525 - 22/06/2017 20:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5254
Loc: Not tellin!
[img]http://www.idioms4you.com/complete-idioms/flog-a-dead-horse.html[/img]

Mike are you applying the stopped clock method??? Or the Violi principle??? They are pretty similar. Keep predicting the same thing until you are eventually right......


Edited by adon (22/06/2017 20:24)

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#1426547 - 23/06/2017 09:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 34
...But at least he's looking a bit deeper than just what the models are saying. Some contributors to this thread just echo the models and then savage them if they forecast some undesired outcome.

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#1426551 - 23/06/2017 12:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 34
Impressive omega block forecast.


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