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#1426305 - 20/06/2017 04:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i wonder if it will extend to global.

small radar artifacts/anomalies occurring at saddleworth and
cowell, a larger one near lochiel/snowtown and a big one from
port niell to louth bay. not quite sure what may be causing
them other than an abrupt/significant change in atmospheric
density.

latest model runs still show a change atmospheric stability over
the weekend, access and gfs have a narrowish but good ban of nw
infeed moving across from w.a. which at this stage doesn't get
stretched and cut off by the time it gets to us, for as long as
it hangs on it gives a chance of a little bit better than not
much. gfs is running with the ball as usual and gives us one of
it's favourite scenarios, a cut off low with associated follow
up front/cold pool which of course would be a perfect wringer
for the nw infeed.
the other models are similar but not quite as pronounced and
black and white as gfs with the low degrading into the longwave
trough and the front not so sharp and coldpool staying well
south of us. from what i see since last night models have held
steady or ramped up a smidgen, as things stand at the moment
compared to what we've been having not looking too bad.
just hope the models have got the right grip this time.

TH
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#1426333 - 20/06/2017 12:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1632
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Sure hope we can get something its getting very dry now.
_________________________
YTD-74mm AVE-260mm

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#1426362 - 20/06/2017 17:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i hope so too roves but models for you over there are looking
very marginal, they seem to be concentrating on southern ep, yp,
adelaide and environs, lofty ranges, ki and fleurieu.
thats just from a quick scan of a combined big pic.
really shouldn't be drilling down too hard yet though, still 4
days out.

TH
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#1426400 - 21/06/2017 09:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14847
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Can't see anything exciting in the pattern for at least 2 weeks unfortuntely...

TS cool

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#1426401 - 21/06/2017 09:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 79
Swell arriving Saturday is a bit exciting smile

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#1426409 - 21/06/2017 10:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: *jr*]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14847
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: *jr*
Swell arriving Saturday is a bit exciting smile


Sure is! few novelty spots down Victor with the more S direction might get some life!

TS cool

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#1426432 - 21/06/2017 16:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
compared to what's been happening the last few weeks this
weekend is shaping up to be plenty exciting.
access and cmc have shifted the rain band north to currently
centre on/near adelaide, another 1-200km further n would
have croppers smiling, southern ep need it bigtime.

TH
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#1426446 - 21/06/2017 18:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17487
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Reckon I will get about 3mm.

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#1426458 - 21/06/2017 22:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7024
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I think we're in a cold, dry winter snap. Really need wind more than anything (its very calm). The absence of moisture feeding properly from any direction is driving a wider diurnal temperature range (into sub-zeros). This is not symptomatic of higher pressure, higher temperatures and expansion; this is symptomatic of broad, shallow (fickle) upper trough activity from the south being driven inland. My view.

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#1426517 - 22/06/2017 17:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17487
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: teckert
tbh I think we will get diddly squat over next weekend. Really looks like carking it already.

Looking like even less than diddly squat.

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#1426534 - 23/06/2017 05:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
dissappearing quicker than handfull of chips amongst a flock
of seagulls.
don't know if it's me or these models seem to be getting worse,
seems years ago their accuracy a week out was much higher, now
it's just pin the tail on the donkey. even you started to think
you might get 3mm,(you still might yet), love the way you quote
and gloat. still, it is a good way to grab someone by the
scruff of the neck and rub their nose in it. i'm still picking
the scabs off from the last time.
---------------
quote TH
"but having gasbagged all of that i must admit diddly squat
pretty much relates to how much i know."
---------------
in yer face, at least im right about one thing. poke


the ones i'm feeling upset for are the croppers, this is getting
out of hand now, for their sake it's gotta rain and soon,
hopefully the upcoming showers are widespread and enough
and keep things ticking over until something more substantial
comes along.
on a personal level these fine sunny cool windless days have
been awesome living weather and in one way am going to be
sad to see them come to an end.

TH
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#1426540 - 23/06/2017 08:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17487
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
errr no... read into it what you may, but just pointing out how bad these systems are going. Getting less than diddly squat just sums it up.
Can I add though, that you will notice that both lennie and myself wrote it off despite the models. There are other factors that you can look at that pointed to the liklihood of this happening. Its why forecasters like AV are actually doing way better than the BOM and model outputs now as they are actually observing these factors and the influence they have on systems before they actually happen.

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#1426554 - 23/06/2017 13:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 551
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

on a personal level these fine sunny cool windless days have
been awesome living weather and in one way am going to be
sad to see them come to an end.


The Japanese say akibara - fine autumn weather and in as much as it is great weather to cycle to work (apart from the chilly mornings) I'd be happy to have it rain...

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#1426565 - 23/06/2017 16:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
Could be an excellent sunset tonight.
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#1426576 - 23/06/2017 18:42 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 551
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Chris #3
Could be an excellent sunset tonight.


Not too bad - this link will work for a little while:

http://www.weathercamnetwork.com.au/time...adelaide_magill

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#1426620 - 24/06/2017 23:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1109
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Nice bit of convection building up around the place today. They mentioned there was a thunderstorm in the mid north this afty. Sat map showed a few strikes to my east.


[url=[/URL]][/url]

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#1426640 - 25/06/2017 13:42 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 551
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Pelting down here at the moment :-)

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#1426653 - 25/06/2017 19:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2103
Loc: Clare, SA
4mm at home, 10mm at Spring Gully, some substantial showers around up here.

However more interestingly saw probably something I will never see again today. Was scaling the highest peak in the Tothills when some rain came through. Fog formed off the lee of the range and sunlight lit up an incredibly vivid brocken spectre with multiple glory rings, with a 3/4 of a circle fog bow, of which a quarter of which was a vivid rainbow. All the while being surrounded by orange glowing fog looking down very steep terrain. I wish I could have got pictures as this was one of the most beautiful weather phenomenon I have ever seen.
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1426660 - 25/06/2017 20:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1593
Loc: Bridgewater
refurbished radar no good.
it shows clear sky but its raining

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#1426688 - 26/06/2017 16:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Eevo]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 527
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Originally Posted By: Eevo
refurbished radar no good.
it shows clear sky but its raining

I was going to mention that.

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