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#1426701 - 26/06/2017 18:19 NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Looks like the first bullish cold front of the season.

We have some general agreement with the models, timing and moisture totals.

Positioning will be key, as the models have flipped and flopped re how much the low will cutoff.

EC is the most aggresive , and has been gently upgrading each run. While GFS is finally coming to party.

Whats interesting. The models have a lot of moisture in a proceeding trough. I'm usually worried by this. However there should be enough cold air from thursdays change (5-8cm ) to allow that pre frontal to fall as snow.



Edited by Seabreeze (08/07/2017 14:23)
Edit Reason: an end date

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#1426725 - 27/06/2017 07:21 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
In recent weeks, the models have often shown significant cold changes about 7-10 days in the future, only to be clobbered as we get closer and the high moves quickly across and plonks itself over Victoria for several days. Still, a cold change will get through eventually.

GFS is actually strengthening the change due on the 30th. It's cold enough (850 temps -2 over SE NSW) but the moisture is mostly pushed over the Tasman.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

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#1426728 - 27/06/2017 07:49 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
In recent weeks, the models have often shown significant cold changes about 7-10 days in the future, only to be clobbered as we get closer and the high moves quickly across and plonks itself over Victoria for several days. Still, a cold change will get through eventually.

GFS is actually strengthening the change due on the 30th. It's cold enough (850 temps -2 over SE NSW) but the moisture is mostly pushed over the Tasman.

It will be interesting to see what happens.


Over the past month there has been a pesky large area of low pressure pushing a strong easterly airstream onto the coast. That combined with a persistent weak ridge has pushed every front down before it could peak. Thats now gone and we are open/under to a SW stream . It should open the door to some more active fronts.

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#1426734 - 27/06/2017 09:16 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9668
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Fingers crossed smile

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#1426739 - 27/06/2017 09:50 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
It's gonna be a cold far south change yet again with -5 @ 850mb coming up since Saturday night's run for that area. Trouble is GFS at least is showing little upper support with not very cold temps at 500mb so it'll be a very stable airmass unfortunately.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426761 - 27/06/2017 17:02 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
This is looking silly good on EC.
A week of snow predicted by the 00z update.

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#1426762 - 27/06/2017 17:03 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Sorry to be a pain again but can you link that EC site?
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426766 - 27/06/2017 17:24 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Sorry to be a pain again but can you link that EC site?


I'll link you to the free one

I have pro-accu. Which is paid.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...2017062700&fh=0

also check the WZ silver EC, EC DT and EC ensembles when they update.

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#1426767 - 27/06/2017 17:26 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
ie




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#1426768 - 27/06/2017 17:28 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Thanks Donzah.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426770 - 27/06/2017 17:50 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

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#1426774 - 27/06/2017 19:38 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Its on for next week

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#1426775 - 27/06/2017 19:39 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I'll be in Jindy for ten days. If the net behaves i'll give you guys some updates

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#1426777 - 27/06/2017 20:11 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I'll be in Jindy for ten days. If the net behaves i'll give you guys some updates


Sweet.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426792 - 28/06/2017 08:48 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9668
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cheers Donzah smile

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#1426805 - 28/06/2017 10:58 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
This event is still very much on but it looks very dry. Maybe the hills around Bombala will get something but I don't think it will even reach Cooma. Colder upper temps are what we need for snow or any precip actually.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426806 - 28/06/2017 11:01 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
This event is still very much on but it looks very dry. Maybe the hills around Bombala will get something but I don't think it will even reach Cooma. Colder upper temps are what we need for snow or any precip actually.


You talking about Friday the 30th ? or July the 3rd?

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#1426971 - 30/06/2017 16:38 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6207
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Oops was talking about today.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1427174 - 02/07/2017 20:12 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The change that passed through on the 30th brought some cold air but little moisture, so we've enjoyed a run of fairly clear, quite cold nights and cool, sunny days.

The cold front initially expected tomorrow has weakened, with the cold air staying to the West. Instead, it does look like tomorrow marks the start of a Westerly regime, initially warming up for Tuesday and Wednesday but cooling down at the end of the week. Not particularly cold, probably good for Alpine snow, but with little or no snow outside Alpine areas.

850 temps near Sydney look set to rise from about 5 degrees today to 7-8 around mid week then dropping to around 1-2 by the end of the week. I take a value of about 4 to 5 at this time of year to mark average temps, 10 is warm, 0 is cold (and when combined with moisture can result in snow at about 1,000 metres).

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#1427176 - 02/07/2017 20:18 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Mind you a metre of snow for perisher over the next seven days.....conservative. looking forward to it.

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