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#1427213 - 03/07/2017 10:27 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
They would enjoy a metre of snow I suspect smile

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#1427219 - 03/07/2017 11:14 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

~40cm in EC snow accum for Thredbo/Perisher. So not a metre...
But I wouldn't be surprised if there is major aspect loading of up to 1m on Western faces, particularly on the Main Range, but also Perisher.

In other news, many have reported snow high up at Perisher.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (03/07/2017 11:14)
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#1427225 - 03/07/2017 12:04 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah SH, I am actually liking the look of this system for the Snowies. Persistent westerly winds for days and precip will add up for some good totals. A classic winter setup really, I'm definitely going for more than 50cm between today and Saturday.

But no fun for the CT's as the system is not cold enough I don't think.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427261 - 03/07/2017 17:03 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Damn.
I thought the following was in this thread but it was in the day to day thread, so I thought it belonged in here.

Originally Posted By: Donzah
Bom have -Thredbo
Friday 7 July
Summary Min -4Max -1
Possible snow shower. Windy.Possible rainfall: 0 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%


What sort of call is 0-20mm?



An each way bet perhaps?? Either nothing or something. lol.

In saying that, the BOM have up to 109 mm's forecast for Thredbo TS over the next 7 days, all at temps at or below zero.
2nd week of the school holidays looking ripe.

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#1427264 - 03/07/2017 17:07 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Incoming moisture for the alps, but still a little warm but the colder air will be behind this next lot.
Hopefully will see temps drop soon and the snow to start falling.

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#1427265 - 03/07/2017 17:09 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I got lost between threads LOL.

Yeah i'm pretty impaitent. Just want it to snow.

Though 850hpa tenps of +4 today at 1440m asl...it was never going to be cold enough.

I tend to follow AXS-R for moisture within the magic 72 hrs. Its bullish for sure.

I've seen systems like this go silly on snowfall amounts. As they aren't particulary cold , but precip heavy ..best 24hrs in Australia was a 70cm day. Seems like a dream nowadays.

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#1427267 - 03/07/2017 17:15 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
The great thing about this one though is that we have nearly a week to build up a good snow total. There might not be heaps of snow per day but it'll add up for sure.

But Thredbo Top 1 degree and 8% humidity??? Hmmm. I semi believed the 1 and 2% readings for the last couple of days but the subsidence inversion has gone now as you see by this:
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427269 - 03/07/2017 17:22 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I got lost between threads LOL.

Yeah i'm pretty impaitent. Just want it to snow.

Though 850hpa tenps of +4 today at 1440m asl...it was never going to be cold enough.

I tend to follow AXS-R for moisture within the magic 72 hrs. Its bullish for sure.

I've seen systems like this go silly on snowfall amounts. As they aren't particulary cold , but precip heavy ..best 24hrs in Australia was a 70cm day. Seems like a dream nowadays.





Yeh, I got lost too, that's why I changed the conversation. It's more relevant here atm.
Yeh, today was always going to be a close call hence why most were saying a freezing level at between 17-1900 metres. BOM this morning were talking about 1500 mtrs. It was always leaning towards being a tad too warm. Tonight will see that change. Hopefully.

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#1427270 - 03/07/2017 17:24 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
The great thing about this one though is that we have nearly a week to build up a good snow total. There might not be heaps of snow per day but it'll add up for sure.

But Thredbo Top 1 degree and 8% humidity??? Hmmm. I semi believed the 1 and 2% readings for the last couple of days but the subsidence inversion has gone now as you see by this:



Yes WR, a constant 7 days of accumulation will add up for the snow fields for sure. Wednesday could be a dark horse though for totals. Might spring a surprise.

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#1427271 - 03/07/2017 17:28 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.

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#1427275 - 03/07/2017 17:53 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.


I'll leave your first 2 sentences alone!! lol.

Yeh, it has certainly been gaining momentum over the past few days.
VIC BOM seem rather less bullish, although these W/NW systems have always favoured NSW resorts a little more, particularly Perisher.

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#1427280 - 03/07/2017 18:57 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Homer]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.


I'll leave your first 2 sentences alone!! lol.

Yeh, it has certainly been gaining momentum over the past few days.
VIC BOM seem rather less bullish, although these W/NW systems have always favoured NSW resorts a little more, particularly Perisher.


Yeah, there won't be much for Victoria. 20cm for Monday-Wednesday for Vic. 40-50cm for NSW.
_________________________
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Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1427281 - 03/07/2017 19:11 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.


I'll leave your first 2 sentences alone!! lol.

Yeh, it has certainly been gaining momentum over the past few days.
VIC BOM seem rather less bullish, although these W/NW systems have always favoured NSW resorts a little more, particularly Perisher.


Yeah, there won't be much for Victoria. 20cm for Monday-Wednesday for Vic. 40-50cm for NSW.

Hotham will be closer to Perisher than Buller .

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#1427282 - 03/07/2017 19:12 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Its also important we appreciate where to measure .
Taken on the lee side of mid. We could see 200cms on the tables LOL.

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#1427298 - 03/07/2017 22:13 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Its also important we appreciate where to measure .
Taken on the lee side of mid. We could see 200cms on the tables LOL.


IMHO you wil not see 2m even on the Western faces of the MR. Hotham will get more than Buller, but won't get the loading that Perisher will get. You might get 30cm Hotham, more on western aspects.
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#1427313 - 04/07/2017 08:15 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Regarding the current event, there is no cold front as such over NSW, even on the NZ Met chart, but cooler air is gradually filtering through over Sydney and nearby regions today. According to Access, 850 temps over Sydney today are dropping from a 'hot' 10 degrees at 2200 last night to about 6 degrees by 1000 today and 4 degrees at 2200 tonight.

Over coming days, 850 temps near Sydney at 1000 are forecsat to be about 4, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2 and 1. 4 degrees at about 1500 metres (850mb) corresponds to about 13 at sea level, close to the seasonal average in coastal areas near Sydney.

As always, there's a hint of a stronger change in about 8 days' time.


Edited by Steve777 (04/07/2017 08:18)
Edit Reason: Move comment on Bluff Knoll to Snow thread.

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#1427315 - 04/07/2017 08:22 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Its also important we appreciate where to measure .
Taken on the lee side of mid. We could see 200cms on the tables LOL.


IMHO you wil not see 2m even on the Western faces of the MR. Hotham will get more than Buller, but won't get the loading that Perisher will get. You might get 30cm Hotham, more on western aspects.


I was being facetious about the mid station at Perisher gatorade bottle. Leeside loading.

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#1427319 - 04/07/2017 09:14 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Meanwhile as mild as can be out here overnight!! Min about 6 and currently almost 10.

Some very cold weather in Tassie is hopefully MUCH MORE of an indicator for what may be coming out of this system smile

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#1427325 - 04/07/2017 10:39 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Albion Park was much colder than you Dave with 2.9C. The best I could get down to here was 5.1C.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427326 - 04/07/2017 10:43 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well done Reilly - showing off there grin

Breeze picking up out here as the morning progresses. WNW direction, current temp just under 12.

Clear blue sky.

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