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#1426701 - 26/06/2017 18:19 NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
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Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Looks like the first bullish cold front of the season.

We have some general agreement with the models, timing and moisture totals.

Positioning will be key, as the models have flipped and flopped re how much the low will cutoff.

EC is the most aggresive , and has been gently upgrading each run. While GFS is finally coming to party.

Whats interesting. The models have a lot of moisture in a proceeding trough. I'm usually worried by this. However there should be enough cold air from thursdays change (5-8cm ) to allow that pre frontal to fall as snow.



Edited by Seabreeze (08/07/2017 14:23)
Edit Reason: an end date

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#1426725 - 27/06/2017 07:21 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
In recent weeks, the models have often shown significant cold changes about 7-10 days in the future, only to be clobbered as we get closer and the high moves quickly across and plonks itself over Victoria for several days. Still, a cold change will get through eventually.

GFS is actually strengthening the change due on the 30th. It's cold enough (850 temps -2 over SE NSW) but the moisture is mostly pushed over the Tasman.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

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#1426728 - 27/06/2017 07:49 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
In recent weeks, the models have often shown significant cold changes about 7-10 days in the future, only to be clobbered as we get closer and the high moves quickly across and plonks itself over Victoria for several days. Still, a cold change will get through eventually.

GFS is actually strengthening the change due on the 30th. It's cold enough (850 temps -2 over SE NSW) but the moisture is mostly pushed over the Tasman.

It will be interesting to see what happens.


Over the past month there has been a pesky large area of low pressure pushing a strong easterly airstream onto the coast. That combined with a persistent weak ridge has pushed every front down before it could peak. Thats now gone and we are open/under to a SW stream . It should open the door to some more active fronts.

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#1426734 - 27/06/2017 09:16 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Fingers crossed smile

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#1426739 - 27/06/2017 09:50 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
It's gonna be a cold far south change yet again with -5 @ 850mb coming up since Saturday night's run for that area. Trouble is GFS at least is showing little upper support with not very cold temps at 500mb so it'll be a very stable airmass unfortunately.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426761 - 27/06/2017 17:02 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
This is looking silly good on EC.
A week of snow predicted by the 00z update.

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#1426762 - 27/06/2017 17:03 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Sorry to be a pain again but can you link that EC site?
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426766 - 27/06/2017 17:24 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Sorry to be a pain again but can you link that EC site?


I'll link you to the free one

I have pro-accu. Which is paid.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...2017062700&fh=0

also check the WZ silver EC, EC DT and EC ensembles when they update.

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#1426767 - 27/06/2017 17:26 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
ie




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#1426768 - 27/06/2017 17:28 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Thanks Donzah.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426770 - 27/06/2017 17:50 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

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#1426774 - 27/06/2017 19:38 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Its on for next week

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#1426775 - 27/06/2017 19:39 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I'll be in Jindy for ten days. If the net behaves i'll give you guys some updates

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#1426777 - 27/06/2017 20:11 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I'll be in Jindy for ten days. If the net behaves i'll give you guys some updates


Sweet.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426792 - 28/06/2017 08:48 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
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Cheers Donzah smile

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#1426805 - 28/06/2017 10:58 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
This event is still very much on but it looks very dry. Maybe the hills around Bombala will get something but I don't think it will even reach Cooma. Colder upper temps are what we need for snow or any precip actually.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1426806 - 28/06/2017 11:01 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
This event is still very much on but it looks very dry. Maybe the hills around Bombala will get something but I don't think it will even reach Cooma. Colder upper temps are what we need for snow or any precip actually.


You talking about Friday the 30th ? or July the 3rd?

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#1426971 - 30/06/2017 16:38 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Oops was talking about today.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427174 - 02/07/2017 20:12 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The change that passed through on the 30th brought some cold air but little moisture, so we've enjoyed a run of fairly clear, quite cold nights and cool, sunny days.

The cold front initially expected tomorrow has weakened, with the cold air staying to the West. Instead, it does look like tomorrow marks the start of a Westerly regime, initially warming up for Tuesday and Wednesday but cooling down at the end of the week. Not particularly cold, probably good for Alpine snow, but with little or no snow outside Alpine areas.

850 temps near Sydney look set to rise from about 5 degrees today to 7-8 around mid week then dropping to around 1-2 by the end of the week. I take a value of about 4 to 5 at this time of year to mark average temps, 10 is warm, 0 is cold (and when combined with moisture can result in snow at about 1,000 metres).

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#1427176 - 02/07/2017 20:18 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
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Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Mind you a metre of snow for perisher over the next seven days.....conservative. looking forward to it.

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#1427213 - 03/07/2017 10:27 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
They would enjoy a metre of snow I suspect smile

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#1427219 - 03/07/2017 11:14 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

~40cm in EC snow accum for Thredbo/Perisher. So not a metre...
But I wouldn't be surprised if there is major aspect loading of up to 1m on Western faces, particularly on the Main Range, but also Perisher.

In other news, many have reported snow high up at Perisher.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (03/07/2017 11:14)
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#1427225 - 03/07/2017 12:04 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah SH, I am actually liking the look of this system for the Snowies. Persistent westerly winds for days and precip will add up for some good totals. A classic winter setup really, I'm definitely going for more than 50cm between today and Saturday.

But no fun for the CT's as the system is not cold enough I don't think.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427261 - 03/07/2017 17:03 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Damn.
I thought the following was in this thread but it was in the day to day thread, so I thought it belonged in here.

Originally Posted By: Donzah
Bom have -Thredbo
Friday 7 July
Summary Min -4Max -1
Possible snow shower. Windy.Possible rainfall: 0 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%


What sort of call is 0-20mm?



An each way bet perhaps?? Either nothing or something. lol.

In saying that, the BOM have up to 109 mm's forecast for Thredbo TS over the next 7 days, all at temps at or below zero.
2nd week of the school holidays looking ripe.

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#1427264 - 03/07/2017 17:07 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Incoming moisture for the alps, but still a little warm but the colder air will be behind this next lot.
Hopefully will see temps drop soon and the snow to start falling.

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#1427265 - 03/07/2017 17:09 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I got lost between threads LOL.

Yeah i'm pretty impaitent. Just want it to snow.

Though 850hpa tenps of +4 today at 1440m asl...it was never going to be cold enough.

I tend to follow AXS-R for moisture within the magic 72 hrs. Its bullish for sure.

I've seen systems like this go silly on snowfall amounts. As they aren't particulary cold , but precip heavy ..best 24hrs in Australia was a 70cm day. Seems like a dream nowadays.

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#1427267 - 03/07/2017 17:15 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong NSW
The great thing about this one though is that we have nearly a week to build up a good snow total. There might not be heaps of snow per day but it'll add up for sure.

But Thredbo Top 1 degree and 8% humidity??? Hmmm. I semi believed the 1 and 2% readings for the last couple of days but the subsidence inversion has gone now as you see by this:
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427269 - 03/07/2017 17:22 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I got lost between threads LOL.

Yeah i'm pretty impaitent. Just want it to snow.

Though 850hpa tenps of +4 today at 1440m asl...it was never going to be cold enough.

I tend to follow AXS-R for moisture within the magic 72 hrs. Its bullish for sure.

I've seen systems like this go silly on snowfall amounts. As they aren't particulary cold , but precip heavy ..best 24hrs in Australia was a 70cm day. Seems like a dream nowadays.





Yeh, I got lost too, that's why I changed the conversation. It's more relevant here atm.
Yeh, today was always going to be a close call hence why most were saying a freezing level at between 17-1900 metres. BOM this morning were talking about 1500 mtrs. It was always leaning towards being a tad too warm. Tonight will see that change. Hopefully.

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#1427270 - 03/07/2017 17:24 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
The great thing about this one though is that we have nearly a week to build up a good snow total. There might not be heaps of snow per day but it'll add up for sure.

But Thredbo Top 1 degree and 8% humidity??? Hmmm. I semi believed the 1 and 2% readings for the last couple of days but the subsidence inversion has gone now as you see by this:



Yes WR, a constant 7 days of accumulation will add up for the snow fields for sure. Wednesday could be a dark horse though for totals. Might spring a surprise.

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#1427271 - 03/07/2017 17:28 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.

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#1427275 - 03/07/2017 17:53 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.


I'll leave your first 2 sentences alone!! lol.

Yeh, it has certainly been gaining momentum over the past few days.
VIC BOM seem rather less bullish, although these W/NW systems have always favoured NSW resorts a little more, particularly Perisher.

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#1427280 - 03/07/2017 18:57 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Homer]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.


I'll leave your first 2 sentences alone!! lol.

Yeh, it has certainly been gaining momentum over the past few days.
VIC BOM seem rather less bullish, although these W/NW systems have always favoured NSW resorts a little more, particularly Perisher.


Yeah, there won't be much for Victoria. 20cm for Monday-Wednesday for Vic. 40-50cm for NSW.
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#1427281 - 03/07/2017 19:11 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Donzah
I've always been a duration type guy.

Hard and fast doesn't last.


Wednesday keeps getting upgraded on each run.
One thing I like about Wednesday is the timing. The heaviest precip is progged between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday.


I'll leave your first 2 sentences alone!! lol.

Yeh, it has certainly been gaining momentum over the past few days.
VIC BOM seem rather less bullish, although these W/NW systems have always favoured NSW resorts a little more, particularly Perisher.


Yeah, there won't be much for Victoria. 20cm for Monday-Wednesday for Vic. 40-50cm for NSW.

Hotham will be closer to Perisher than Buller .

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#1427282 - 03/07/2017 19:12 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
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Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Its also important we appreciate where to measure .
Taken on the lee side of mid. We could see 200cms on the tables LOL.

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#1427298 - 03/07/2017 22:13 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Its also important we appreciate where to measure .
Taken on the lee side of mid. We could see 200cms on the tables LOL.


IMHO you wil not see 2m even on the Western faces of the MR. Hotham will get more than Buller, but won't get the loading that Perisher will get. You might get 30cm Hotham, more on western aspects.
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#1427313 - 04/07/2017 08:15 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Regarding the current event, there is no cold front as such over NSW, even on the NZ Met chart, but cooler air is gradually filtering through over Sydney and nearby regions today. According to Access, 850 temps over Sydney today are dropping from a 'hot' 10 degrees at 2200 last night to about 6 degrees by 1000 today and 4 degrees at 2200 tonight.

Over coming days, 850 temps near Sydney at 1000 are forecsat to be about 4, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2 and 1. 4 degrees at about 1500 metres (850mb) corresponds to about 13 at sea level, close to the seasonal average in coastal areas near Sydney.

As always, there's a hint of a stronger change in about 8 days' time.


Edited by Steve777 (04/07/2017 08:18)
Edit Reason: Move comment on Bluff Knoll to Snow thread.

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#1427315 - 04/07/2017 08:22 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Its also important we appreciate where to measure .
Taken on the lee side of mid. We could see 200cms on the tables LOL.


IMHO you wil not see 2m even on the Western faces of the MR. Hotham will get more than Buller, but won't get the loading that Perisher will get. You might get 30cm Hotham, more on western aspects.


I was being facetious about the mid station at Perisher gatorade bottle. Leeside loading.

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#1427319 - 04/07/2017 09:14 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Meanwhile as mild as can be out here overnight!! Min about 6 and currently almost 10.

Some very cold weather in Tassie is hopefully MUCH MORE of an indicator for what may be coming out of this system smile

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#1427325 - 04/07/2017 10:39 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Albion Park was much colder than you Dave with 2.9C. The best I could get down to here was 5.1C.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427326 - 04/07/2017 10:43 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well done Reilly - showing off there grin

Breeze picking up out here as the morning progresses. WNW direction, current temp just under 12.

Clear blue sky.

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#1427330 - 04/07/2017 10:52 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
The coldest air is due west of SA at the moment. I am a bit suprised to see tthat much rotation

That westerly stream looks to be getting established. That weather should wander our way by tonight.


Edited by Donzah (04/07/2017 10:55)

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#1427331 - 04/07/2017 11:08 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
And how about the really tight rotation over western Tas, quite a compact but very obvious little low centre there smile

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#1427332 - 04/07/2017 11:28 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Meanwhile, whilst you guys feverishly discuss how many changes on the head of a pin, we have a July where three of the first four days of July have been above average, including an almost 22 at Norah head at the moment at 11 am in mid July. That is more worthy of discussion than some straw clinging nonsense about big snow dumps in the Alps. The alpine season's fate was sealed for this year a fair while ago. A dud season. Deal with it.
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1427334 - 04/07/2017 11:48 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1245
Loc: toowoomba
I would not call the 4th the middle of july.And there are quite a few of us who like to talk about snow in winter,amazing hey.

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#1427337 - 04/07/2017 12:18 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah Dave I had to mention it because I don't get to show off it being colder here very often. grin

There is nothing that unusual about the first 3 out of 4 days of July to be above average. Maybe if it was actually mid July and only one day below, I'd be concerned.

It feels hot outside!! It's funny how you get used to 15-17C for a while and then temps above 20 feel genuinely warm. Even the breeze does not have a hint of chill in shorts and tshirt. Lovely.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427338 - 04/07/2017 12:21 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Talk of snow all good. But this thread header gives impression it is a strong change to hit NSW which is garbage.

As for 4th of July not being mid winter I disagree. Leave it at that.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1427344 - 04/07/2017 12:34 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
It appears to be snowing at Perisher.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427409 - 04/07/2017 20:31 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural


Edited by Homer (04/07/2017 20:31)

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#1427411 - 04/07/2017 20:55 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah it's not ideal, especially in light of reading the ski forum.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427436 - 05/07/2017 10:17 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
snotting heavy snow at Perisher

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#1427437 - 05/07/2017 10:22 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Donzah
snotting heavy snow at Perisher


Yeh, I put that in the snow thread.

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#1427438 - 05/07/2017 10:25 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Homer]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Donzah
snotting heavy snow at Perisher


Yeh, I put that in the snow thread.


I don't really go in there.

Very moist westerly stream at perisher. Large dendrites on the cams.

Next few days look ok as well with decent winds and better temps.

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#1427439 - 05/07/2017 10:33 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Donzah
snotting heavy snow at Perisher


Yeh, I put that in the snow thread.


I don't really go in there.

Very moist westerly stream at perisher. Large dendrites on the cams.

Next few days look ok as well with decent winds and better temps.


Yeh, no worries.
Agree that some good accumulation will occur over the next few days/week.

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#1427442 - 05/07/2017 10:43 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
NSW cams - especially Perisher looking better today.

Selwyn showing it's lack of elevation still.

Hopefully all get some full coverage this week.

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#1427445 - 05/07/2017 10:47 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I think Selwyn will struggle because of its elevation as you say Dave. Not really a cold change, just a very moist one. It may not get any snow this week or it will be very marginal at best.


Edited by Wave Rider (05/07/2017 10:48)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1427448 - 05/07/2017 10:57 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Maybe someone would know, is Selwyn closed? But looking at the cams I couldn't see one person on the slopes.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1427457 - 05/07/2017 13:23 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Selwyn only have 2 lifts running.

Seems to be man made only that can be ski'd on.

New Chum is the beginner area.

There are SOME people on the snow but not many. Basically they would likely be absolute beginners learning to ski or less experienced skiers finding their feet.

Many of the people would be making the drive around to Perisher I suspect to get some runs in instead. Bit of a trip but for anyone not a pure beginner, the only real choice.

Selwyn can change rapidly though if snow comes in on a Westerly or Nw system - it's on the first really tall ridge and orographics mean (from those directions) it actually can accumulate extremely rapidly sometimes. The more southerly the system flows, the less it accumulates. SE systems are the worst for there.

They don't need much snow to fall, the slopes are so well groomed (no rocks etc) and so smooth from holes & bumps, that even 20cm gives full coverage. They actually can do quite well at times. Just not today.

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#1427478 - 05/07/2017 17:31 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I think Selwyn may get some love . That band is north of the MR and the temps are colder at 850hpa (ie selwyns altitude)

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#1427480 - 05/07/2017 17:33 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Cool afternoon in Sydney, wind had a certain chill about it, and it was interesting watching the dynamics of the sky change throughout the afternoon with some moisture and instability in the mid levels.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1427481 - 05/07/2017 17:35 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Also....Im going to Lithgow in 12 days, how much of a weather system from the south west will I need to see to get my hopes up of seeing snow for the first time!
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1427482 - 05/07/2017 17:35 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5049
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Cool afternoon in Sydney, wind had a certain chill about it, and it was interesting watching the dynamics of the sky change throughout the afternoon with some moisture and instability in the mid levels.


Definitely some instability about. Some lovely cloudscapes this afternoon.

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#1427488 - 05/07/2017 18:08 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Yup - that instability turned into a nice line of storms 40ks offshore and is producing some very nice bolts.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1427490 - 05/07/2017 18:17 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Thanks for that very useful information and explanation, Dave.

Lithgow rarely gets snow Trav but if there's a good front you might get something if you head up to Oberon, Sunny Corner or Shooters Hill.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1427491 - 05/07/2017 18:32 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Also....Im going to Lithgow in 12 days, how much of a weather system from the south west will I need to see to get my hopes up of seeing snow for the first time!


Better off from the south or south east.

16th July is bingo for best snow of the season

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#1427494 - 05/07/2017 18:51 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Selwyn is actually looking good now, I'm impressed!! Virtually covered in snow. smile
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1427496 - 05/07/2017 19:24 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Windy as here now
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427498 - 05/07/2017 19:28 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 457
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Windy as here now


Isn't it?????

smashing in... rain on the wind before as well.

feels like winter again

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#1427509 - 05/07/2017 23:34 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yeah it's still going and very loud outside as well. The first proper windy night we've had this winter.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1427510 - 06/07/2017 08:11 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1260
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Just a few light gusts up here over night. Barely noticeable. Totally calm again now. I dont like wind much, so this weather is pretty nice. Big difference over a couple hundred K's compared to your experience WR.

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#1427515 - 06/07/2017 09:09 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4064
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Yeah no wind here overnight and this morning, quite a mild night too, temp stayed above 10c.

Should crack 20c again today.

Should rename the thread to Southern NSW Cold Front?
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 41.0mm
YTD 997.3mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1427518 - 06/07/2017 09:19 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
How about Claytons Front. The front you have when not having a front. Temps have all been upgraded for this region. And seeing as the temp has overshot the forecast max just about everyday so far this July, it probably means 20 every day till maybe Tuesday next week. It would be wrong to even use the word winter for much of the east coast of NSW. Its just about as boring as weather could be.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1427519 - 06/07/2017 09:22 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5850
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Funny thing is there's actually no front on the synoptics but yet it feels like one down here. Only because of the wind, not the temps. Still a little breezy. We should get strong wind nearly every night these week while you guys above get calm nights. It's the right setup for that to happen I reckon.

If you don't like wind GR, you'd hate it down here.


Edited by Wave Rider (06/07/2017 09:24)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1427520 - 06/07/2017 09:34 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 309
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Apparantly snowed at Oberon/Shooters last night with "video proof" however the video is very small and badly pixelated. Authenticity very questionable.

Temps at Shooters were +2c and Oberon +3.5c with no moisture around and radars showing 0.0mm between now and 9am yesterday.

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#1427521 - 06/07/2017 09:42 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3279
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I think we did get a cold front, or the remains of one, through here late yesterday. There was a bit of wind last night, but it wasn;t particularly strong here. I expect that the wind would be stronger in the Illawarra because of it's local topography, on a narrow plain between the ocean and the Illawarra escarpment.

Cool and sunny here, with light breezes.

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#1427522 - 06/07/2017 09:55 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep more like a glancing blow up here. A love tap of a winter front smile

Cloudy today, bit of a breeze, not COOOOLLLLLD but not warm either.

Dull day, cool due to lack of sunshine. Currently about 6, sort of middling for how the day actually "appears" to the eye.

Yesterday evening it cooled pretty quickly as the more obvious change came through. I would think it POSSIBLE that a few errant flakes fell on the highest peaks but I reckon blink and it was missed.

I saw a couple of light showers yesterday evening that were clearly white in the upper areas near the cloud but clearer at lower levels. To me a classic high level snow shower. Some small amount of that MIGHT have reached a very localised place up high. Would have to be lucky enough to be under the correct cloud though. It was sparse.

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#1427523 - 06/07/2017 10:50 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1696
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
What lows there are being flung up are light weights pressure wise. And even though the high pressure belt has migrated north a bit. The lows lack the grunt to take advantage. The high migration will stall and begin a southward advance sooner than typical and there will be even less of a chance of a solid change for much of NSW for this winter alas.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1427526 - 06/07/2017 13:35 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9522
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hey Dawwwggg - as a bit of a coincidence, and this will probably change sadly, long term GFS is throwing a fairly big cold insurgence to the CT's on Monday the 17th. smile

Not much precip showing AND it's a long way out. However - Donzah is keen on this period as well for more snow down south smile

I reckon though, best to try and get yourself to either Yetholme/Sunny Corner (between Bathurst & Lithgow) or get to the Oberon plateau for Shooters Hill about 20km south of Oberon.

You could do Mt Bindo (similar elevation but more isolated) near Hampton but, I'd prefer Shooters, it gets more precip in these conditions smile

Lithgow is in rainshadow of the Oberon & Yetholme plateau's with SW changes & also around 400m lower than Shooters Hill.

Lithgow about 900m - Shooters around 1300m - BIG difference in temps.

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#1427690 - 09/07/2017 10:14 Re: NSW Cold front- Bass strait low and embedded SW stream. July 3rd to 6th 2017 [Re: Donzah]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 198
Loc: Newcastle
Perisher reporting 32cm of snow for the last week. Hopefully there is now some regular frontal activity.

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