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#1427371 - 04/07/2017 16:12 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
Some nice convergence along what looks to be a sliding trough of sorts? just south of Adelaide. Can see it well on GFS progs remaining near stationary as such pushing a westerly belt of showers into KI and across into the southern hills in a rather unstable atmosphere for much of the evening into tomorrow. I'd actually be rather excited if I lived in the hills especially through say the Fleurieu Peninsula region towards Mount Lofty, this could be a big night!

If you loop the visible satellite you can see this area of convergence very clearly, gradually tracking northwards. I'd expect some local 50mm+ falls again by 9am provided the orographics get going and it doesn't remain too convective, would like it to become more of a band of rain.

Most models don't give my area too much but gfs keen on an inch with heavy showers spreading further north than other models, see how we go. 8.5mm overnight up here.

That 51mm to 9am is impressive at Woodhouse, orographic forcing was absolutely solid last night.
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#1427372 - 04/07/2017 16:13 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: berga1987]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
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Loc: Clare, SA
Originally Posted By: berga1987
Presuming the cold air pushing up isn't cold enough for any dusting to occur. Snow level in vic seems to be +1000, so i guess too high


Zero chance of snow. Quite a warm system for winter overall.
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#1427374 - 04/07/2017 16:22 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
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Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14855
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer Markus was about to post just on that! models been showing it for a few days and was wondering why some had such extraordinary high falls for a cold air like event but the persistent and slow moving convergence between southerlies south of the trough and NW flow to the N of the trough combined with the unstable atmosphere from the cooling as the upper low moves in from the west tonight will promote an environment conducive to constant renewed convective growth, training showers and heavy falls - hence the flooding warning from earlier. Unstable enough for a thunderstorm or two in that area chiefly south of about Noarlunga and small hail as the coldest air moves in. Expect sudden cores forming out of 'thin air' so to speak combined with training heavier convective bands. 70-80mm to 9am in some places wouldn't surrpise in the slightest, espec over the Central/western fleurieu with that extra orographic lift.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (04/07/2017 16:22)

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#1427375 - 04/07/2017 16:31 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
70-80mm to 9am in some places wouldn't surrpise in the slightest, espec over the Central/western fleurieu with that extra orographic lift.

TS cool


Yup, even BoM going for 50-100mm by Friday night! I think if it juts north and gets a good angle on the Mount Lofty region we could see that 80mm! Bonus is this generally westerly stream will keep the totals ticking over for many days after this smile
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#1427388 - 04/07/2017 18:02 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: Markus]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7092
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Markus
I think if it juts north and gets a good angle on the Mount Lofty region we could see that 80mm!

Maybe even more (for Mount Lofty area).
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#1427389 - 04/07/2017 18:08 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
hummm bug!

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#1427392 - 04/07/2017 18:25 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7092
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Well, 100 mm or not, it's wet, and it's a break in a pattern smile , and welcome at that!
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#1427393 - 04/07/2017 18:38 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
the rain is nice, but the BOM going on about 100mm and flooding is just scare mongering.

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#1427394 - 04/07/2017 18:44 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
The BoM isn't "going on about 100mm and flooding". Their 4 day rainfall forecast is for 50-100mm (for the hills only), and the warning is for possible localised flash flooding...which is justified given the convective nature of the rainfall expected.
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#1427400 - 04/07/2017 19:05 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
same thing

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#1427403 - 04/07/2017 19:17 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 771
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
The 10.8 mm rain I have recorded so far here in Gulfview Heights, is better than my June total.
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#1427406 - 04/07/2017 19:29 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9642
Loc: Mid North, SA
Just started belting down up here. Nice little rain rate of 15.7mm/h. 4mm in the gauge so far and a quagmire for a front yard. LOL
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2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#1427412 - 04/07/2017 20:57 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
Parawa about to cop it! There's a weird area right over the location where the radar isn't showing echoes...I'm wondering if they manually reduced a permanent echo (the topography perhaps) but somehow screwed it up during the upgrade...I've never really noticed anything like it before.

Satellite showing broad areas of convection forming, looking good!
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#1427415 - 04/07/2017 21:27 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
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Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 524
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Radar looking insane Markus,that convection over Yorkes went up in one or two frames, very volatile.

Great pick up with Parawa and radar, a definite hole since the upgrade that's for sure.
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#1427421 - 04/07/2017 22:44 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 281
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Just arrived home after 12 days in Adelaide, rain gauge had 46mm in it tonight and was still raining, according to neighbour 18mm was from late last week , the rest (28mm) is from this event... by far the best rain for this year, and now the crops will all germinate after a near record dry start to this season ... hope the spring is kind!

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#1427424 - 04/07/2017 23:47 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 559
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Getting heavy here now...
No lightning on the WZ scope..


Edited by betsuin (04/07/2017 23:49)

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#1427428 - 05/07/2017 08:36 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 468
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Recorded another 7.0 mm at FP since yesterday morning.

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#1427429 - 05/07/2017 08:42 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 281
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Another12mm overnite, that's 40mm for this event, 58 over the last six days! But I suspect it is fairly coastal and not general.

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#1427456 - 05/07/2017 13:22 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: poona]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
Originally Posted By: poona
Another12mm overnite, that's 40mm for this event, 58 over the last six days! But I suspect it is fairly coastal and not general.


Bloody awesome to hear at least the southern section of E.P. has finally had good rainfall.

Seems we had the opposite problem to what I thought last night, looks as though we had the convection but nowhere near close enough to Adelaide for the heavy falls. The plumes were blowing back over the top of themselves from the NW and choking the slow moving lines, they kept on dying without ever getting much distance and the remnants were mostly light without enough force in the winds to get the orographics going in the hills, ah well! That 24mm in 30 minutes was impressive at Neptune Island.

8mm at home, for 16.5mm total, best fall in ages so I'm happy, Watervale south of here scored nicely with 18mm to 9am. smile
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#1427458 - 05/07/2017 13:39 Re: SA - Trough, Fronts July 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
66mm in the last week,
watch out for that localised flooding.

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