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#1416802 - 27/03/2017 13:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4858
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Ok. So current GFS has a 970 landfall. Strong cat3. Could wind up being the most likely.

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#1416803 - 27/03/2017 13:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...

She was giving an opinion on the available information at the time.

No, the winds in Townsville will not be worse than Yasi and probably won't even reach gale force.


It will probably be correct to say that gales/winds will last longer than they did in Yasi, however they won't be as strong for Townsville. Any winds over 125km/hr are destructive and can cause damage.

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#1416805 - 27/03/2017 13:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ayrfam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 146
Loc: Ayr, Qld
"The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the
models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may
also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it remains somewhat disorganised. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a general west-southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the
Queensland coast."

Can someone please explain if this is saying that the ridge is going to come back into play and start the wsw direction? Is the SE Qld trough going to loose some of its intensity and allow the ridge to dominate the steering of TC Deb? Sorry it this has been asked.

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#1416806 - 27/03/2017 13:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
That 'shortwave trough moving north into SE Queensland' in the Tech notes is probably responsible for that recent 12 hour Southerly SSW trajectory. I wonder if it will just be a short term glitch before returning to the WSW to SW direction.

Either way it has pushed it further South and the track maps are changing each update to show this. Just how long it takes to rejoin/recurve back to that WSW to SW trajectory is the question.

Again it opens up a whole new range of potential crossing locations. Just when you think its becoming clearer, it actually gets more complicated. Next 6-9 hours will tell a big story to the outcome of Debbie I believe.
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#1416808 - 27/03/2017 13:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
OICU812 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/03/2017
Posts: 18
Yep, by the time they have 5 different meetings and then come out to front the press, they are presenting info that's likely several hours old.

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#1416809 - 27/03/2017 13:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ayrfam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 146
Loc: Ayr, Qld
Thanks Popeye smile That is kind of what the Tech notes imply...returning to the WSW.
Cyclone Deb has put a whole new 'spin' on things wink

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#1416811 - 27/03/2017 13:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Patrolit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 60
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Absolutely hammering in Mackay at the moment...

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#1416812 - 27/03/2017 13:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 623
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
ADT has Debbie already at 958hPa with the latest CIMSS data. Be interested to see what the regional correction would be and what the official estimate is. Certainly the signature has improved rapidly over the last 5 hours


Edited by E-J (27/03/2017 13:41)
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#1416813 - 27/03/2017 13:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
She's definitely swinging more Westerly now...

Looks to hit Bowen head on


Edited by Jet entrance (27/03/2017 13:41)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1416814 - 27/03/2017 13:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7775
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Be interesting to see if it slows up a touch as the Ridge builds in underneath it again. It appears to have a fairly solid forward motion inplay so maybe not.
_________________________
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#1416815 - 27/03/2017 13:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Can anyone possibly explain why the Sydney Morning Herald is saying "Stronger than Yasi: Cyclone Debbie claims first life"?? Have I missed something or was cyclone Yasi ALOT stronger in both max sustained winds and wind gusts then what Debbie is being forecast to be?

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#1416816 - 27/03/2017 13:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Originally Posted By: Locke
Trying to judge the direction a cyclone is moving from a few radar frames is nonsensical.

You need at least a 3-6 hour loop to start to draw any conclusions and even that might not be enough to isolate a wobble from a real direction change.


Try the last 100 frames then:

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.m&r=241&noi=100


I was actually responding to the earlier post not yours. The oscilemet site you provided the link to is good but I use 6 or 12 hour loops from WZ radar. These showed up the movement directions that you highlighted in your previous post quite well.

I think looking at a few recent frames and saying the cyclone is starting to move more westerly is misguided.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1416817 - 27/03/2017 13:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: pete28]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4858
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: pete28
Can anyone possibly explain why the Sydney Morning Herald is saying "Stronger than Yasi: Cyclone Debbie claims first life"?? Have I missed something or was cyclone Yasi ALOT stronger in both max sustained winds and wind gusts then what Debbie is being forecast to be?


Sensationalism. Plain and simple. As for the life taken. Someone was not driving to the conditions most likely but if t can be blamed on the cyclone it makes for a more dramatic story

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#1416818 - 27/03/2017 13:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 170
Loc: Brisbane
This is just ridiculous. Maybe it was implied that it will be "worse" than Yasi in terms of damage and insurance cost and then the press spun to to "stronger" than Yasi.

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#1416819 - 27/03/2017 13:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: pete28]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1039
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Originally Posted By: pete28
Can anyone possibly explain why the Sydney Morning Herald is saying "Stronger than Yasi: Cyclone Debbie claims first life"?? Have I missed something or was cyclone Yasi ALOT stronger in both max sustained winds and wind gusts then what Debbie is being forecast to be?


Sensationalism at its best.
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#1416820 - 27/03/2017 13:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Locke]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12611
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: Locke


I think looking at a few recent frames and saying the cyclone is starting to move more westerly is misguided.


Yup, still moving firmly in a SSW direction, with maybe a more Westerly component over the last hour or so. smile
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Bilyana FNQ

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#1416822 - 27/03/2017 13:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2872
Loc: Mt Warren Park
could she be strengthening again? the eye seems to getting somewhat smaller and there is a light band on the southern/eastern side appearing now inside the eye - wall replacement maybe?
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#1416823 - 27/03/2017 13:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: lawless]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: lawless
Originally Posted By: bundybear
Just saw this on facebook. Power to be cut today.

Hi Guys.
For all our members up north, stay safe and, if you are not evacuating, please stay in doors.
Reports just in say that electricity to most area's in TC Debbies path will be cut off today. They are not waiting to see if the cyclone will cause blackouts. That is almost a no brainer.
Before your power gets cut please ensure you charge up everything that is rechargeable, this includes your mobile phones and radios.
If you don't have a mobile charger for your car, now might be a good time to get one. Most service stations and shops sell them.
When your power is out, your car battery can still charge up your phone.
If you don't have a car, and can't charge up your phone without power, then plan ahead. Only turn your phone oon for, say ten minutes each hour, or every second hour, and advize your friends of this, so they can contact you at those times if they need too.
Don't call people and ask your friends NOT to call you. This chews up heaps of battery power. Try and use SMS messages only. Your phone battery will last a lot longer that way.
THAT IS, OF COURSE, IF YOU STILL HAVE ANY MOBILE PHONE COVERAGE. Chances are the towers could be knocked out.
Stay safe everyone.


God I hope not... this is nuts - cos there's a lot of people still at work and might / would be planning final preparations viz a viz meals, and food prep tonight.


Umm, what Facebook page please.

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#1416824 - 27/03/2017 13:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
OICU812 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/03/2017
Posts: 18
Might be the cynic in me but it seems more like a post mortem explanation for why she steadfastly refuses to make the westward turn they keep predicting.

My gut feeling is that the models give too much emphasis to whatever forces cause them to turn west towards the coast, as cyclones seem to often go a lot further south than forecast before heading into land.

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#1416825 - 27/03/2017 13:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: ol mate]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: ol mate
Originally Posted By: pete28
Can anyone possibly explain why the Sydney Morning Herald is saying "Stronger than Yasi: Cyclone Debbie claims first life"?? Have I missed something or was cyclone Yasi ALOT stronger in both max sustained winds and wind gusts then what Debbie is being forecast to be?


Sensationalism at its best.


Had to sorry...

Becker: Professor, uh, Hall, our economy is every bit as fragile as the environment. Perhaps you should keep that in mind before making sensationalist claims.
Hall: Well, the last chunk of ice that broke off was about the size of the state of Rhode Island. Some people might call that pretty sensational.
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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