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#1427776 - 10/07/2017 21:02 VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards...
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day gang! Bula vinaka! smile

Been a while since I started a thread... but if ACCESS and GFS are anything to go by, then Winter 2017 looks set to now FINALLY be getting ready to unleash its full power, so here we go! grin

Following the current frontal system brushing through, a large high will arrive from the Bight and hang over us for a couple of days, bringing more settled conditions, but with a few nippy nights! eek

Further west and southwest, two weather systems look set to collide! A trough is currently over Southwest WA. Immediately to the southwest, a potentially major winter storm from Antarctica is now on the move across the Southern Ocean. A deepening low is charging northbound en route to Southern Australia; a mighty cold front is swinging north ahead of it! The trough will weaken and/or head northeast into the Outback, but some of its remnants will be pulled south into the brewing storm system.

The high should retreat off Eastern Australia into the South Pacific by Thursday, allowing winds to swing around into a rapidly strengthening northerly airflow across Victoria ahead of the impending storm, with the front bursting upon us by Friday, introducing an icy polar blast! A second powerful storm looks scheduled to strike by next Sunday/Monday! smile

For tomorrow...

Morning fog and frost across the north. Isolated showers near the coast, contracting to Gippsland during the evening; isolated afternoon showers possible about the Great Dividing Range, with alpine snow above 1300m. Cool with light to moderate northwesterly winds, becoming light and variable. Forecast tops of 15°C for Melbourne and 18°C for Mildura.

For Wednesday...

Widespread morning fog and frost, mainly over the Central and Eastern districts. Isolated morning coastal showers over East Gippsland. Otherwise a fine, cool and partly cloudy day with winds tending light to moderate northerly. Forecast tops of 15°C for Melbourne and 17°C for Mildura.

For Thursday...

Morning frost in the east. Cloud increasing with showers and possible late thunderstorms developing over the Western districts during the day, increasing over the Southwest at night. Cool to mild with moderate to fresh northerly winds. Forecast tops of 15°C for Melbourne and 18°C for Mildura.

For Friday...

Scattered showers across much of the State, more isolated in East Gippsland and in the Mallee. Possible thunderstorms with hail near the coast. Snowfalls lowering to 800m!!! Cool with moderate to fresh west/northwesterly winds. Forecast tops of 14°C for Melbourne and 18°C for Mildura.

Have a good one gang! wink

Cheers, vinaka.

Aussiestormfreak

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#1427778 - 10/07/2017 21:27 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Your a life saver asf😀😀
FINALLY looks like a more normal winter
Pattern is about to take hold and give us
Some winter weather to talk about lol

Def liking the look of the first front on
Friday with all models in agree that we
Should get a decent cold blast with good
Snow 👍
The follow up front Monday also looks
Very nice as well

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#1427802 - 11/07/2017 10:00 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gee what a massive turn around in
The models!!
Looking mighty fine this morning with
Strong blast after strong blast 😀

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#1427803 - 11/07/2017 10:02 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Think I can see 532 thickness on
Every front as they pass through
So possibly snow to that 6-800m mark?

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#1427807 - 11/07/2017 10:40 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1765
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Lots of cold air, need rain though, been burnt to many times by good (wet/cold) outlooks and would love to see some rain here in the next week. ACCESS has 532 air dooga. !!

Terrific to see good falls in other parts of the state.

Be nice to see some threads started by "other parts of the state" grin grin

Our BOM forecast is :-

Wed 12 Jul Forecast Min-1 °CMax15 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 mmChance of any rain: 0%

Thu 13 Jul Forecast Partly CloudyMin0 °CMax16 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 mmChance of any rain: 10%

Fri 14 Jul Forecast ShowersMin7 °CMax15 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 to 1 mmChance of any rain: 40%

Sat 15 Jul Forecast ShowersMin4 °CMax13 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mmChance of any rain: 40%

Sun 16 Jul Forecast CloudyMin1 °CMax13 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 mmChance of any rain: 10%

Mon 17 Jul Forecast ShowersMin3 °CMax15 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mmChance of any rain: 30%

Same-o, same-o (Is there such a word)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1427824 - 11/07/2017 14:28 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1765
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Our WZ forecast -

Maximum 15°C 15°C 16°C 16°C 13°C 14°C 15°C
Minimum 2°C -1°C -1°C 6°C 4°C 0°C 2°C
Chance of Rain 30% 5% 50% 60% 60% 60% 50%
Rain Amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm

Cloudy but calm here atm, 13C.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1427844 - 11/07/2017 21:02 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Mm mm not much joy for u out there samboz!!

BUT, on access g tonight there is hope
Of a cold ecl developing mid next week
With some very good falls out east vic!

Bom going for snow down to 700m
Saturday morning for w&s gippy

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#1427850 - 11/07/2017 22:41 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cheers Doogasnow! wink

Overnight low of 7.2°C, reached a top of 17.4°C here in Belgrave today. Mostly cloudy for starters, with showers off to the south and southeast, then it became sunnier as the afternoon progressed. smile

A cold, clear night with a bright moon coming up now, currently around 5°C! eek

Shaping up to be a fantastic winter storm event across Victoria over coming days guys, well overdue; the models are lining up for what'll hopefully be a real showdown! smile

First storm still on track to strike by late-Thursday/Friday. A cool, crisp, sunny day tomorrow, aside from a real frosty start, but I'd expect Severe Weather Warnings for 90-100km/h+ gales for Thursday to be issued across Victoria within 24 hours as the northerly airflow starts strengthening in response to a very tight pressure gradient! eek

The cold pool is forced deep into Southeastern Australia over the weekend, so I'd expect some very ICY weather ahead! Then winds veer from west/southwesterly back to northwest/ northerly and increase yet again on Sunday as the second storm system bursts upon Victoria!!

The incoming high behind it next week should bring a temporary reprieve, but emphasis on "temporary" lol, a head's-up guys! ACCESS and GFS have what could be an even larger, more POWERFUL winter storm threatening to strike Victoria mid/late next week! grin

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#1427857 - 12/07/2017 07:40 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.8°C, currently around 4°C with patchy fog and frost, plus some high cloud.

I forgot to mention that the showers that rolled through my area yesterday, in the wake of Monday evening's frontal system, dropped another 1.1mm of rain. Nice! smile

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#1427874 - 12/07/2017 12:27 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope so powerful winter hit SE Australia will be nice and no frost go away.

I had Theory if this High Pressure keep bring dry and frost and pushing frontal away by Spring time then warm air will be early in September to October when Sun get closer..

Anyway just want frontal and rain otherwise farmers will have problems growing season.

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#1427896 - 12/07/2017 19:48 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 503
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Sadly have moved back here for work, its so so cold and exy in Melb lol today was nice but last night so cold.

Roll on October warmer weather

Active week coming up, a few decent fronts cold and windy but no major moisture infeed so no major frontal rain just showery windy cold and snowy up high.

Typical Melb winter
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1427899 - 12/07/2017 20:51 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a high of 17.5°C here in Belgrave today, nice and sunny with patchy high cloud. Another cold night coming up, currently around 7°C. poke

Nice to have a potentially major winter storm re-entering the Bight en route to Southeastern Australia on satellite again! grin

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#1427915 - 13/07/2017 07:29 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 6.1°C, it was around 10°C when I left home in Belgrave for work around 30 minutes ago.

Currently in Upper Ferntree Gully, it's blustery with high cloud, tinged pink and yellow at sunrise. Despite the chill, I'd much rather windy weather instead of frost! smile

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#1427918 - 13/07/2017 09:05 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1765
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Some potential next week, ACCESS Mon to Wed, EC for Thur.

A colder frost this morning than yesterday, East Sale -4.4C @ 07.39AM, marginally colder than Omeo !!!!

Clear blue skies and sunny, no wind, beaut Winter day, albeit a bit on the dry side. grin


Edited by samboz (13/07/2017 09:06)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1427978 - 13/07/2017 23:56 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a high of 15.4°C here in Belgrave today. A lovely sunrise over Melbourne's eastern suburbs on my way to work this morning, then a blustery and mostly cloudy day with a mix of sunny breaks and light showers. smile

And it's been increasingly windy this evening, it's been ages since I've heard the wind roaring away, especially from the north! smile

Loving it, but glad I'm not out in it atm lol, the wind sure had an icy chill whenever I was outside today! And after I had finished my shift in Box Hill this evening I was worried that this evening's train chaos across Melbourne might've been due to the stormy weather! eek

Also been showery this evening too, but no measurable rainfall yet. Hopefully the incoming cold front will drop some good overnight falls, followed by heavy showers and maybe storms with hail tomorrow and into Saturday! smile

The temperature has bottomed out at 10.1°C so far this evening, so it's very likely to be my warmest night for Winter 2017, and my first night in the double-digits since May 27th, when we dipped to 10.9°C. At the last check it was getting warmer, around 12°C! crazy


Edited by aussiestormfreak (14/07/2017 00:05)

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#1427988 - 14/07/2017 09:24 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1765
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Mm mm not much joy for u out there samboz!!

BUT, on access g tonight there is hope
Of a cold ecl developing mid next week
With some very good falls out east vic!

Bom going for snow down to 700m
Saturday morning for w&s gippy


My hope also dooga' re mid next week - unfortunately this AM's ACCESS shot that to pieces, as it all slips off South with yet another big high approaching to the West of W.A. behind it.

A sunny warmer morning here, calm, no fresh snow on Mt Wellington. grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1428020 - 14/07/2017 23:02 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.5°C, at least at the time I left for work at 7:30am this morning, can't confirm if it got colder than that. It reached a high of only 14.5°C here in Belgrave today! eek

A cold, wet, miserable and rather stormy day. No sooner had my alarm gone off at 6:30am to wake me up than the cold front struck and it started raining very heavily, accompanied by strong wind!

The rain eased after I left home to catch the bus, but it didn't clear off until about the time I reached Box Hill, around 8:30am.

The weather then stayed windy and partly cloudy but dry, until locally heavy showers resumed during the afternoon. Good thing the weather cleared yet again in time for my train trip home after 7:30pm! smile

Collected 4.2mm of rain over the last 24 hours, with 2.1mm by the time I left home this morning, and another 2.1mm to follow afterwards. smile

Currently around 8°C.

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#1428040 - 15/07/2017 10:24 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1765
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Small amount of overnight snow on Mt Wellington this morning, no rain here to talk about.
Calm and sunny but distant cloud.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1428077 - 15/07/2017 18:18 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: Twister1]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6512
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Twister1
Sadly have moved back here for work, its so so cold and exy in Melb lol today was nice but last night so cold.

Roll on October warmer weather

Active week coming up, a few decent fronts cold and windy but no major moisture infeed so no major frontal rain just showery windy cold and snowy up high.

Typical Melb winter



Ah well - part of the career! - now yo can focus on identifying some useful rain for the Mallee to break this drought smile

I tipped out 3mm last evening from the odd dribble or two yesterday.

This weather is akin to winters 45 years ago.

I guess a few of us will agree that when this dry breaks in coming months, we'll all end up swimming.

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#1428099 - 15/07/2017 22:43 Re: VIC - Cold Fronts, Troughs & Lows - Wet, Windy & Stormy With Possible Low-Level Snow - July 11th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 4.3°C, reached a top of 13.7°C here in Belgrave today, chilly but mostly sunny. smile

Another nippy night coming up, currently around 5°C! eek

Second winter storm now closing in on Victoria, should strike within 24 hours! grin

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