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#1432340 - 31/08/2017 21:03 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 670
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Latest BoM forecast significantly downgrades precipitation prospects from the approaching LP trough (Sunday) and following cold fronts (Monday - Wednesday). However, GFS hints at moister conditions commencing around 2nd week of September. Still early days.

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#1432402 - 01/09/2017 13:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Overnight runs continue with significant warmth mainly Sunday due to approaching cold front / trough, then a savage westerly wind burst of cold dry air. However, EC is pretty bullish about next weekend being wet and wild, with a deep polar low moving across Victoria and over SE NSW, bringing with it some decent rainfall and strong winds along the coast.

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#1432403 - 01/09/2017 13:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ok, wow, not only EC but GFS & ACCESS too. In fact, EC is looking very troughy with another ECL that week. Surprising shift from the most recent patterns, hopefully this is the change we have been waiting for.

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#1433566 - 10/09/2017 19:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Looks like this week could be a very interesting one, with almost record breaking warmth and then followed by a couple of bursts of wintry cold.

Will really start warming up tomorrow, as GFS is going for no to a very weak seabreeze on the coast so could reach about 24C here and Sydney. Then high 20's on Tuesday despite plenty of cloud and then a sunny and windy top of around 33C in Sydney and 31 here.

Looks like there may be some thunderstorms with the cold front on Wednesday afternoon/night followed by a small window of possibly heavy snow on the CT's and by Thursday morning GFS has 850's down to -5. At this stage it looks like the best snow of the year for that area. Certainly looks like it will be the strongest cold front of the year after almost record warmth beforehand.

Then for the weekend it looks like another freezing wintry burst but from the S/SE, with 850's yet again quite well below zero.

Not to mention there will be some huge top ups for the Snowies, one on Wednesday/Thursday and then another dump on the weekend. And it doesn't look like there will be TOO much rain before the cold returns either which is good. We could be getting close to 3 metres by this time next week, which would be the biggest Spencers Creek depth since 1992.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/09/2017 19:20)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1433567 - 10/09/2017 19:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like this week could be a very interesting one, with almost record breaking warmth and then followed by a couple of bursts of wintry cold.

Will really start warming up tomorrow, as GFS is going for no to a very weak seabreeze on the coast so could reach about 24C here and Sydney. Then high 20's on Tuesday despite plenty of cloud and then a sunny and windy top of around 33C in Sydney and 31 here.

Looks like there may be some thunderstorms with the cold front on Wednesday afternoon/night followed by a small window of possibly heavy snow on the CT's and by Thursday morning GFS has 850's down to -5. At this stage it looks like the best snow of the year for that area. Certainly looks like it will be the strongest cold front of the year after almost record warmth beforehand.

Then for the weekend it looks like another freezing wintry burst but from the S/SE, with 850's yet again quite well below zero.

Not to mention there will be some huge top ups for the Snowies, one on Wednesday/Thursday and then another dump on the weekend. And it doesn't look like there will be TOO much rain before the cold returns either which is good. We could be getting close to 3 metres by this time next week, which would be the biggest Spencers Creek depth since 1992.


Good analysis!

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#1433572 - 10/09/2017 19:36 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Thanks Kino. Omg I can't express how keen I am for this warm spell!! Just one more sleep... it's like I'm waiting for Christmas. poke


Edited by Wave Rider (10/09/2017 19:36)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1433573 - 10/09/2017 19:37 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Thanks Kino. Omg I can't express how keen I am for this warm spell!! Just one more sleep... it's like I'm waiting for Christmas. poke


Warm spell + chance of a decent storm = creamage.

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#1433574 - 10/09/2017 19:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Thanks Kino. Omg I can't express how keen I am for this warm spell!! Just one more sleep... it's like I'm waiting for Christmas. poke


Warm spell + chance of a decent storm = creamage.


Amen to that!

A warm spell, without the goddamn humidity of summer. Dry heat is the best IMO.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/09/2017 19:39)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1433584 - 10/09/2017 20:57 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4260
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Yes looking forward to this warmth.

I've just checked MetEye 3 times in the last 10 minutes or so for my area and had 3 different forecasted temps for Tuesday & Wednesday!
How often is MetEye updated?
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1433585 - 10/09/2017 20:58 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: EddyG]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Yes looking forward to this warmth.

I've just checked MetEye 3 times in the last 10 minutes or so for my area and had 3 different forecasted temps for Tuesday & Wednesday!
How often is MetEye updated?


Usually only 2x a day.

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#1433586 - 10/09/2017 21:01 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4260
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Thanks, I don't use MetEye all that often. It's probably that my postcode covers a wide area?
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 5.7mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1433654 - 11/09/2017 14:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I'd say so EddyG.

Sadly both EC and GFS really aren't interested in any rainfall til early next week at this stage. Even this change will be the usual cold dry one, with the higher peaks maybe catching 5-10mm. Even ACCESS which was quite bullish has gone off the boil.

But one thing they all agree on is that damn 540 line surging over us time and time again (with regular monotony, every 3-4 days). Can see the BoM's dry forecast but hell cannot see the warmer part.

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#1433950 - 13/09/2017 21:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC throwing up an interesting scenario next week - an ECL!

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#1433957 - 14/09/2017 01:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1378
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Light rain starting here with big drops,there was a few flashes as well out to the west,but to far away for thunder,another flash to the SE as well.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/groups/422596304525834/

http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1434250 - 17/09/2017 15:13 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 670
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
We've had 30mm so far this month - a little below average given we're over halfway through. However, WATL gives little comfort for rain over the next 8 days - predicts nothing at all. At this rate September will be a dry month. GFS predicts some rain late in the month, but will have to wait and see how things evolve. More concerning is that before then we're facing extended periods of much warmer than normal maxima (850mb temps around 18C) with only brief cool intrusions. Sydney's west will see numerous days in the low to mid thirties. Sea breezes will likely spare the coastal fringe.

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#1434251 - 17/09/2017 15:29 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1378
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Rob G,going good with rainfall,I have only had 9 mms.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/groups/422596304525834/

http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1434252 - 17/09/2017 15:37 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
No rain this month here so far. Well, no recorded rainfall anyway. Just brief showers here and there.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1434255 - 17/09/2017 16:17 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
No rain this month here so far. Well, no recorded rainfall anyway. Just brief showers here and there.


...and no appreciable falls on models on the horizon either frown I think we are in for a record driest September - current is 7.3mm. Can't see us even getting close to that.

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#1434285 - 18/09/2017 00:42 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6181
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Yeah, not good.. There is a bit of hope at the end of GFS.

I strongly advise winter lovers to not look at GFS... grin grin

Let's just say that winter is over by this time next week and we transition to what could be a few days of near record or record September heat. The first 40 of the season looks possible for northern areas like Bourke too with 925mb temps up to 30C.


Edited by Wave Rider (18/09/2017 00:44)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1434289 - 18/09/2017 07:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 663
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah, not good.. There is a bit of hope at the end of GFS.

I strongly advise winter lovers to not look at GFS... grin grin

Let's just say that winter is over by this time next week and we transition to what could be a few days of near record or record September heat. The first 40 of the season looks possible for northern areas like Bourke too with 925mb temps up to 30C.


I'd take GFS with Himalayan pink salt.

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